黄河（山东段）悬河稳定性评价

通过黄河（山东段）悬河稳定性影响因素分析,各河段都有决口失稳的可能。该文从区域地壳稳定性、堤基稳定性、河道稳定性3个方面,采用模糊数学综合评判法进行悬河稳定性评价,对河段可能出现的失稳或决口险点及其可能造成的危害性进行分析和预测,初步确定了10处地质险段。     

水盐梯度下黄河三角洲湿地植被空间分异规律的定量分析

三角洲湿地植被的形成和分布同时受水深、土壤含盐量两个环境因子的作用。采用模糊数学排序方法分析了黄河三角洲湿地植被在水深、土壤含盐量两个环境梯度下的空间分异规律。结果表明,由TWINSPAN划分而得到的8个植被类型在模糊数学排序图中有各自的分布范围,界线明显。以穗状狐尾藻(Myriophyllum spica-tum)等水生植物为优势种的群落分布在排序图的左上部,为黄河三角洲湿地高水深、低盐分地区;以柽柳(Tam-arix chinensis)、翅碱蓬(Suaeda heteroptera)等典型盐生植物为优势种的群落分布在排序图的右下部,为黄河三角洲的低水深、高盐分地区;其他以芦苇(Phragmites australis)、荻(Triarrhena sacchariflora)、旱柳(Salix matsudana)等为优势种的群落分布在排序图的中部。利用Gini-Simpson指数,在模糊数学排序图中分析了植物物种多样性随水深、土壤含盐量梯度的空间变化,结果表明,高水深、低盐分和低水深、高盐分地区植物物种多样性均较低,而二者过渡区域植物物种多样性较高。     

农户行为视角下的乡村生产空间系统运行机制及重构启示

农户行为转变是乡村生产空间系统量变或从量变到质变的重要驱动力,乡村生产空间系统的运行实质上是农户行为作用的外在表现,厘清农户行为可为诠释乡村生产空间系统的运行机制提供平台。本文在剖析农户行为转变与乡村生产空间系统运行响应的理论框架基础上,从农户行为转变和乡村生产空间系统响应入手构建指标体系,建立模糊综合评价量化模型,并以重庆市江津区恒和村作为实证,诠释乡村生产空间系统运行机制。主要研究结论为：不同农户行为对乡村生产空间系统运行的影响程度各异,大体为生产大户>合作社农户>传统农户;不同农户行为对系统运行响应结果的作用差异明显,生产大户行为主要影响乡村生产空间的利用效率,合作社农户行为对提升生产空间系统经济效益作用明显,传统农户行为对生产空间系统环境改善的贡献作用最小。并从经济、社会、空间重构视角提出发展多种形式的适度规模化经营、培育新型农业经营主体和职业农民、合理引导农户技术和资本投入等建议,以实现乡村生产空间系统协调与均衡发展。     

南极与青藏高原冰芯中阳离子对比研究

本文选取南极Ｎｅｌｓｏｎ站、横断山的海螺沟冰川、喜马拉雅山的达索普冰川、西昆仑的古里雅冰川和天山的托木峰冰川为研究对象,以化学成分作为指标,作了模糊聚类分析。结果表明,在不同水平下分类,冰川之间关系程度不同,反应的气候环境也不同。南极与青藏高原冰川中离子浓度存在差异,尤其是Ｎａ＋和Ｃａ２＋的含量差异显著。Ｎｅｌｓｏｎ站的Ｃａ２＋／Ｎａ＋之值比青藏高原各冰芯低许多,其与海水中Ｃａ２＋／Ｎａ＋之值相当。Ｃａ２＋／Ｎａ＋之值体现了冰川离海洋的距离,Ｃａ２＋／Ｎａ＋之值越小,则冰川离海洋越近,反之则越大。     

南四湖湖泊湿地生态环境预警研究

基于南四湖近30 a来多源遥感影像、土地利用、环境监测和实地调查数据,选择1982年、1992年、2002年和2012年4个时间断面,从湿地组织结构、整体功能和社会经济3个方面选取指标,从无警、轻警、中警、重警和巨警5个级别划分警度,采用多级模糊综合评价法进行警度评价,并运用BP神经网络模型对未来10 a警度发展进行预测,研究结果表明：① 南四湖湿地生态环境现在处于重警状态,农业化肥、农药污染和工业污染物排放是主要的警报来源;② 近30 a来南四湖湿地整体生态环境处于不断恶化趋势,社会经济指标恶化趋势明显,未来10 a各项指标和整体预警度均呈下降趋势,整体水平达到中警状态,社会经济投入的增加是重要影响因子;③ 近10 a环境恶化速度比前20 a有所减缓,社会经济指标恶化速度较快,人类活动的负向干扰仍大于正向干扰。     

旅游目的地营销潜力评价与策略框架研究

在全球旅游业进入整合营销和品牌化时代的今天,要想把一旅游目的地成功推向市场,其中较为关键的一环是如何搞好营销。在认真参阅大量专家学者的相关文献资料基础上,考察了牡丹江旅游业发展现状,运用模糊综合评价法对牡丹江旅游目的地营销潜力进行评价。从旅游目的地营销主体、市场分析、旅游目的地形象策划与推广、监控与管理等方面进行分析,构建牡丹江旅游目的地营销策略框架,对牡丹江旅游目的地营销进行系统研究。     

吉林省通榆县旅游资源模糊评价研究

该文基于模糊数学的理论和方法 ,从不同角度、不同层次对吉林省通榆县的旅游资源进行综合评价 ,并针对旅游资源特征 ,提出了发展旅游业的基本构思。     

Kriging with imprecise (fuzzy) variograms. I: Theory

Imprecise variogram parameters are modeled with fuzzy set theory. The fit of a variogram model to experimental variograms is often subjective. The accuracy of the fit is modeled with imprecise variogram parameters. Measurement data often are insufficient to create good experimental variograms. In this case, prior knowledge and experience can contribute to determination of the variogram model parameters. A methodology for kriging with imprecise variogram parameters is developed. Both kriged values and estimation variances are calculated as fuzzy numbers and characterized by their membership functions. Besides estimation variance, the membership functions are used to create another uncertainty measure. This measure depends on both homogeneity and configuration of the data.     

辽宁省低碳经济发展水平评价

构建包含经济系统、能源系统、碳排放系统、技术投入系统和环境系统5个准则层及23个指标的低碳经济发展水平评价体系,基于可变模糊识别模型,分析评价辽宁省低碳经济发展水平。结果显示:辽宁省低碳经济发展水平由2004年的2.87提升到2014年的3.01,由中碳偏高水平提升到中碳发展水平。沈阳、大连、丹东、锦州、营口和葫芦岛的低碳经济发展水平较高;鞍山、抚顺、本溪、盘锦、辽阳及铁岭的低碳经济发展水平较低。在此基础上,运用SBM模型测算辽宁省各市的碳排放效率,其结果与低碳经济发展水平评价值有较大关联。     

Quantitative Assessment of the Ecological Vulnerability of Baiyangdian Wetlands in the North China Plain

Quantitative assessment of vulnerability is a core aspect of wetland vulnerability research. Taking Baiyangdian (BYD) wetlands in the North China Plain as a study area and using the ‘cause-result’ model, 23 representative indicators from natural, social, sci-tech and economic elements were selected to construct an indicator system. A weight matrix was obtained by using the entropy weight method to calculate the weight value for each indicator. Based on the membership function in the fuzzy evaluation model, the membership degrees were determined to form a fuzzy relation matrix. Finally, the ecological vulnerability was quantitatively assessed based on the comprehensive evaluation index calculated by using a composite operator to combine the entropy weight matrix with the fuzzy relation matrix. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability levels of the BYD wetlands were comprehensively evaluated as Grade II, Grade Ⅲ, Grade IV, and Grade Ⅲ in 2010, 2011-2013, 2014, and 2015-2017, respectively. The ecological vulnerability of the BYD wetlands increased from low fragility in 2010 to general fragility in 2011-2013, and to high fragility in 2014, reflecting the fact that the wetland ecological condition was degenerating from 2010 to 2014. The ecological vulnerability status then turned back into general fragility during 2015-2017, indicating that the ecological situation of the BYD wetlands was starting to improve. However, the ecological status of the BYD wetlands on the whole is relatively less optimistic. The major factors affecting the ecological vulnerability of the BYD wetlands were found to be industrial smoke and dust emission, wetland water area, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus, rate of industrial solid wastes disposed, GDP per capita, etc. This illustrates that it is a systematic project to regulate wetland vulnerability and to protect regional ecological security, which may offer researchers and policy-makers specific clues for concrete interventions.