Nonstationary time series prediction by incorporating external forces

Almost all climate time series have some degree of nonstationarity due to external forces of the observed system. Therefore, these external forces should be taken into account when reconstructing the climate dy- namics. This paper presents a novel technique in predicting nonstationary time series. The main difference of this new technique from some previous methods is that it incorporates the driving forces in the pre- diction model. To appraise its effectiveness, three prediction experiments were carried out using the data generated from some known classical dynamical models and a climate model with multiple external forces. Experimental results indicate that this technique is able to improve the prediction skill effectively.     

利用二维恒虚警进行非均匀噪声背景下的目标检测

针对高频地波雷达中的非均匀噪声环境及各种干扰源时变的特点,提出构建一种时变白化滤波器。先对非均匀噪声环境进行白化处理,然后在一维恒虚警的基础上,采用一种基于多普勒频率和距离的二维恒虚警处理算法。实验结果表明,利用时变白化滤波进行处理后,再在距离和多普勒频率维同时进行恒虚警检测,可以得到较好的检测结果。     

国家1：50000基础地理信息数据库更新工程及实施

围家1：50000基础地理信息数据库更新工程是我国“十一五”初启动的重点测绘工程,历经5年多实现了对1：50000数据库的全面更新。本文重点介绍了更新工程的背景、主要内容、技术方法、组织实施及其所取得的主要成果。     

Fully coupled hydraulic fracture simulation using the improved element partition method

The improved element partition method (IEPM) is a newly developed fracture simulation approach. IEPM allows a fracture to run across an element without introducing extra degrees of freedom. It can also simulate any number of fractures in a prescribed mesh without remeshing. In this study, the IEPM is extended to hydraulic fracture simulation. First, the seepage and volumetric storage matrix of a cracked element are derived using virtual nodes (the intersection points of a crack with element edges). Subsequently, the fully coupled hydromechanical equation is derived for this cracked element. To eliminate the extra degrees of freedom (virtual nodal quantities), the water pressure and displacement of the virtual nodes are associated with their adjacent nodes through least squares interpolation. Finally, the fully coupled equation in terms of nodal quantities is obtained. The verification cases validate the method. By using this method, the field-scale hydraulic fracturing process is well simulated. The proposed approach is simple and efficient for field-scale hydraulic fracture simulation.     

Analysis of nonstationarity in low flow in the Loess Plateau of China

An approach for nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis is developed and demonstrated on a dataset from the rivers on the Loess Plateau of China. Nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis has drawn significant attention in recent years by establishing relationships between low‐flow series and explanatory variables series, but few studies have tested whether the time‐varying moments of low flow can be fully described by the time‐varying moments of the explanatory variables. In this research, the low‐flow distributions are analytically derived from the 2 basic explanatory variables—the recession duration and the recession coefficient—with the assumption that the recession duration and recession coefficient variables follow exponential and gamma distributions, respectively; the derived low‐flow distributions are applied to test whether the time‐varying moments of explanatory variables can explain the nonstationarities found in the low‐flow variable. The effects of ecosystem construction measures, that is, check dam, terrace, forest, and grassland, on the recession duration and recession coefficient are further discussed. Daily flow series from 11 hydrological stations from the Loess Plateau are used and processed with a moving average technique. Low‐flow data are extracted following the pit under threshold approach. Six of the 11 low‐flow series show significant nonstationarities at the 5% significance level, and the trend curves of the moments of low flow are in close agreement with the curves estimated from the derived distribution with time‐dependent moments of the recession duration and time‐constant moments of the recession coefficient. It is indicated that the nonstationarity in the low‐flow distribution results from the nonstationarity in the recession duration in all 6 cases, and the increase in the recession duration is resulted from large‐scale ecosystem constructions rather than climate change. The large‐scale ecosystem constructions are found to have more influence on the decrease in streamflow than on the increase in watershed storage, thus resulting in the reduction of low flow. A high return period for the initial fixed design value decreases dramatically with an increasing recession duration.     

综放工作面地质工作探讨

根据鲍店煤矿7年来综采放顶煤开采的实践,简要介绍了厚及特厚煤层综采放顶煤生产的地质工作方法。      

完全非线性波浪与二维固定结构物作用的IGN-BEM耦合分析模型

为高效准确地对完全非线性波浪与二维固定结构物的相互作用进行模拟分析,建立了二维完全非线性时域耦合模型。耦合模型将计算域划分为靠近结构物的内域和远离结构物的外域,每个区域均采用满足完全非线性自由水面边界条件的波浪模型进行求解。在内域使用Laplace方程描述流体运动并采用高阶边界元法（BEM）对其进行求解;而在没有结构物的外域,波浪运动的控制方程为Irrotational Green-Naghdi（IGN）方程并采用有限元法（FEM）对其进行求解。内域和外域通过一段重叠区域进行耦合,从而实现模型间变量的传递。首先利用耦合模型分别对规则波的传播、直墙前立波的生成以及相关物理模型试验进行模拟,数值结果与精确解和试验结果的良好吻合验证了耦合模型耦合方式的合理性以及处理非线性问题的准确性;然后使用耦合模型模拟分析了波浪与固定结构物间的相互作用,并将结果与线性解析解以及完全非线性BEM模型的结果进行了对比分析,进一步证明了耦合模型的正确性与高效性。     

Investigation of the thermal regime and subsurface properties of a tidally affected,variably saturated streambed

Temperature and moisture content in the variably saturated subsurface are two of the most important physical parameters that govern a wide variety of geochemical and ecological processes. An understanding of thermal and hydraulic processes and properties of transient vadose zones is therefore fundamental in the evaluation of such processes. Here, an investigation of the thermal regime and subsurface properties of a tidally affected, variably saturated streambed is presented. Field and laboratory measurements, as well as a forward numerical model, are jointly employed in the investigation. Temperature, soil moisture, surface level, and water level data were recorded in a transect perpendicular to a tidally driven stream. Frequency‐domain analysis of the subsurface temperature measurements revealed the rapid decay of the tidal temperature driver within the top ～30 cm of sediment. Several techniques were used to evaluate subsurface thermal and hydraulic properties, including thermal conductivity and the soil water retention curve. These properties were used to constrain a forward numerical model that included coupled treatment of relevant variable saturation thermal and hydraulic physics. Even though the investigated vadose zone is intermittent and relatively shallow ( 20 cm), the results illustrate how error can be introduced into heat‐transport calculations if unsaturated conditions are not taken into account.     

Elastically supported cantilever beam subjected to nonstationary seismic excitation

The dynamic behaviour of bridge piers under seismic load is studied here in the context of random vibration. The earthquake excitation is modelled as white noise filtered by the Clough–Penzien filter in cascade with modulation accounting for intensity non-stationarity. The bridge pier modelled as an elastically supported cantilever beam witha lumped mass at the top. An analytical solution is presented for the response statistics, which may be used to develop probabilistic seismic response spectra for design. It is found that the first two modes of the pier approach to rigid-body motion when the stiffness of the elastic support decreases. Seismic responses increase with the top mass, resultingin significantly high displacement and shear but negligible moment at the top, and higher shear and moment at thebase. Lower stiffness of the elastic support increases the pier top displacement and moment responses, but may increase or reduce shear responses. The probabilistic spectrum of the relative displacement between the bridge superstructure and the pier top may depend on the two systems’ relative modal properties. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

反应谱控制选波的地震动时频非平稳特性差异性分析

时程分析法中地震波的选取关乎结构抗震分析结果是否准确,基于规范反应谱进行选波分析,研究不同选波控制指标下所选出的地震波在时域、频域等方面的特性及误差大小,并进行工程验证。结果表明:采用拟合反应谱选波方法所选的地震动在时、频域上特性差异较大,是导致时程分析法中结构响应差异性较大的主要原因,且选用更为严格的控制指标并不能有效降低所选出地震动时频非平稳之间的差异性。