2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震前中期和短期预测依据与启示

2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震发生在2020年度全国地震危险区内,震前作出了较好的中期（年度）和短期（月尺度和周尺度）预测,是少有的地球物理观测能力较低地区的强震前中期和短临预测较好震例。本文梳理了中期和短期预测的主要依据及其预测效能,研究表明,震前中期异常主要有流动地磁、多方法组合、5.0级地震平静打破、6.0级地震的准周期活动等;短期异常有4.0级地震活动图像、中源地震影响、于田垂直摆倾斜EW、于田GNSS基准站EW位移、和田GNSS基准站EW位移等。在总结震前分析预测过程的基础上,提出针对地球物理观测密度低地区的地震危险区论证和短临跟踪的建议,为该类地区的地震危险区判定及跟踪工作提供宝贵经验。     

岩溶地面塌陷预测模型初探

岩溶的发育程度、上覆岩土体性质是岩溶地面塌陷形成的基本条件;地下水位下降,地表水或降水入渗,震动荷载等动力扰动,是形成岩溶地面塌陷产生的诱发动力条件。本文以山东省泰安市岩溶地面塌陷区为例,讨论了岩溶地面塌陷的产生机理,并从受力情况对其进行了分析探讨,从而提出了岩溶地面塌陷的预测模型。本文还根据研究区的8个塌陷实例对模型进行了检验。结果表明,该模型的计算结果与实际情况基本吻合。     

Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.     

辽宁省地震重点监视防御区典型村镇房屋抗震现状调查与分析

为了解辽宁省地震重点监视防御区典型村镇房屋抗震能力现状,通过现场调查的方式对辽阳、锦州和盘锦等地的村镇民居进行了随机抽样调查,并从场地选择、地基基础、建筑材料、构件的连接及抗震构造措施等方面对其抗震性能进行了分析。总体上看:房屋抗震能力不足的比例占85%左右,主要体现在抗震构造措施缺失及构件连接问题上。在此基础上对提高村镇房屋抗震性能提出了一些对策和建议,为辽宁省农村防震减灾工作提供参考。     

风积砂质高浓度胶凝充填材料性能与粉煤灰掺量关系分析

充填材料是决定煤炭充填开采效益、效率、效果的最主要因素。为了掌握风积砂质高浓度胶凝充填材料的性能变化规律,本文以粉煤灰的质量掺入比作为变量,试验研究和理论分析了粉煤灰对该充填材料性能的影响规律。结果表明,粉煤灰的适量添加可以提高充填材料的强度,大掺量导致强度相对降低; 泌水率随着粉煤灰掺量的增大总体上呈减小趋势,较大掺量试样泌水速率相对较低; 分层度随着粉煤灰掺量的增大线性降低; 凝结时间随着粉煤灰掺量增大呈现指数增大; 坍落度总体上随粉煤灰掺量的升高而增大,但大掺量会使其出现相对降低。分析认为,适量粉煤灰的掺入,使风积砂质高浓度胶凝充填材料的颗粒粒度、水分分布和水泥分散均匀,而使材料的强度和输送性能适度改变,但掺量过大会稀释胶结料和改变颗粒相对级配而导致性能下降。     

第二松花江流域水电厂综合中长期水文预报的分析研究

基于对第二松花江流域上游小山、松山、两江水电站中长期水文预报研究成果，论述了综合中长期水文预报的研究思路和定性预报、定量预报的分析研究方法。该研究通过2002年实践检验，具有较高的预报精度。     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.     

Post-earthquake investigation on several geosynthetic-reinforced soil retaining walls and slopes during the Ji-Ji earthquake of Taiwan

This paper gives an overview on the application of geosynthetic-reinforced soil structures in Taiwan. Taiwan has an unique topography and geotechnical conditions that rendered a less conservative and more challenging design compared to that of North America, Europe and Japan. The Ji-Ji (Chi-Chi) earthquake of 1999 gave an opportunity to examine the behavior of reinforced soil structures. The performance of several modular-block reinforced soil retaining walls and reinforced slopes at the vicinity of the fault was evaluated. Reinforced structures performed better than unreinforced soil retaining walls. The failure cases were highlighted and the cause of failure was identified. The lack of seismic design consideration could be a major cause of failure. The compound failure mode, the inertia force of the blocks, and the connection stiffness and strength relative to the large dynamic earth pressure, were among major items that would warrant further design consideration.     

BDA方案在台风路径预报中的应用

利用PSU／NCAR中尺度非静力有限区域MM5及其伴随模式,以T106分析资料为背景场,设计两种台风Bogus方案对台风的初始场进行优化,并进行了数值模拟试验。对9608号台风个例的数值模拟试验研究表明,经过优化的台风初始场较好地改进了由于海洋上资料缺乏所造成的台风中心位置不准、台风环流偏弱和台风内部结构不完整等问题,提高了台风路径预报的准确率。通过试验对比发现,BDA方案优化的初始场更合理,其台风路径预报效果优于GFDL方案。