Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

Genesis of monazite and Y zoning in garnet from the Black Hills, South Dakota

The paragenesis of monazite in metapelitic rocks from the contact aureole of the Harney Peak Granite, Black Hills, South Dakota, was investigated using zoning patterns of monazite and garnet, electron microprobe dating of monazite, bulk-rock compositions, and major phase mineral equilibria. The area is characterized by low-pressure and high-temperature metamorphism with metamorphic zones ranging from garnet to sillimanite zones. Garnet porphyroblasts containing euhedral Y annuli are observed from the garnet to sillimanite zones. Although major phase mineral equilibria predict resorption of garnet at the staurolite isograd and regrowth at the andalusite isograd, textural and mass balance analyses suggest that the formation of the Y annuli is not related to the resorption-and-regrowth of garnet having formed instead during garnet growth in the garnet zone. Monazite grains in Black Hills pelites were divided into two generations on the basis of zoning patterns of Y and U: monazite 1 with low-Y and -U and monazite 2 with high-Y and -U. Monazite 1 occurs in the garnet zone and persists into the sillimanite zone as cores shielded by monazite 2 which starts to form in the andalusite zone. Pelites containing garnet porphyroblasts with Y annuli and monazite 1 with patchy Th zoning are more calcic than those with garnet with no Y annuli and monazite with concentric Th zoning. Monazite 1 is attributed to breakdown of allanite in the garnet zone, additionally giving rise to the Y annuli observed in garnet. Monazite 2 grows in the andalusite zone, probably at the expense of garnet and monazite 1 in the andalusite and sillimanite zones. The ages of the two different generations of monazite are within the precision of chemical dating of electron microprobe. The electron microprobe ages of all monazites from the Black Hills show a single ca. 1713 Ma population, close to the intrusion age of the Harney Peak Granite (1715 Ma). This study demonstrates that Y zoning in garnet and monazite are critical to the interpretation of monazite petrogenesis and therefore monazite ages.     

Secular variations of the upper crust composition: Implication of geochemical data on the Upper Precambrian shales from the Southern Urals western flank and Uchur-Maya region

In the mid-1980s, it was concluded based on geochemical study that Th, Sc, La concentrations and ratios Th/Sc, La/Sc and Eu/Eu* did not wary significantly in the post-Archean time. It was impossible to judge about compositional variations of upper crust during the Riphean and Vendian, because data of that time characterized a limited number of samples from the post-Archean basins of Australia, New Zealand, and Antarctic. Considered in this work are variations of Eu/Eu*, LREE/HREE, Th/Sc, and La/Sc ratios in Upper Precambrian fine-grained siliciclastic rock of the Southern Urals western flank (Bashkirian meganticlinorium) and Uchur-Maya region (Uchur-Maya plate and Yudoma-Maya belt). As is established, only the Eu anomaly in the studied siliciclastic rocks is practically identical to this parameter of the average post-Archean shale. Three other parameters plot on the Riphean-Vendian variation curves with positive and negative excursions of diverse magnitude, which do not coincide always in time. It is assumed that these excursions likely mark stages of local geodynamic activity, destruction of pre-Riphean cratons, and progressing recycling of sedimentary material during the Riphean.     

The geography of suicide terrorism in Israel

Palestinian suicide terrorism has been a key feature in the latest phase of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. During the past decade, and particularly since September 2000, there has been a substantial increase in the use of this type of warfare. Recent studies suggest that, contrary to common belief, suicide terrorism is highly rational and driven by strategic considerations. This article explores the rationality of Palestinian suicide terrorism from a geographical perspective. It is argued that suicide terrorism works along two parallel paths: rationality and randomness. It complies with geographical fundamentals, and target selection is highly rational, subject to spatial considerations such as distance, agglomeration, and accessibility. As the permeability to Israel became more difficult, suicide bombers and their organizers had to adopt more flexible practices which emphasized other spatial considerations. Timing is of importance both for strategic and tactical reasoning. Obstructing negotiations and peace talks has been a salient objective, but the exact timing of suicide bombings has been influenced by tactical considerations, which aim at maximizing casualties.     

福建平潭虎潮山滑坡成因机理分析与评价

虎潮山滑坡位于平宏公路12k 704~12k 884段北侧山坡体上,是平潭海岛通往陆地的唯一公路通道。论文通过定性的工程地质分析和定量计算评价了虎潮山坡体稳定性的变化趋势,提出改建公路超挖深切坡脚和持续长时间强降雨导致的孔隙水压力作用是边坡发生滑动破坏的主要因素。     

浅谈省级地震系统如何做到开发富局

作为公益性财政拨款事业单位,省级地震系统实现开发富局,应该要从稳定项目收入,拓展自营收入,培育和发展生产点,推进制度创新着手。本文试图从预算和管理的角度对其作一点简单分析。     

To afforest the desert with the technology of peat composed of rotten mosses and the sustainable development of the oases

Only by providing the good conditions for the growth of plants can a favorable ecologicalenvironment on which human beings rely for existence be created. The upside-down-T dou-ble-layer water-conserving afforestation way is developed according to the situation of the short-age of water resources, low soil fertility and vast land in the arid areas. The characteristics of theafforestation way are to change the microenvironment in the root area of the plants, provide thefavorable conditions for the growth of plants, and reduce the necessary conditions for the growth ofplants in large areas in the arid regions. Meanwhile, the size of its water-conserving layer can bechanged according to the size of the planted trees. The different ways of the bottom wa-ter-conserving layer can be used according to the requirements. The afforestation way is suitablefor planting trees on a small scale and also for afforesting on a large scale under the adverse cir-cumstances in the arid areas, and has been effectively used in the afforestation in the hinterland ofTaklamakan Desert and the southern marginal zone of Gurbantonggut Desert. The prospects ofthe afforestation way are broad in afforestation and desertification control in the desert regions.     

Cretaceous length of day perturbation by mantle avalanche

These last 10 years, numerical models of mantle convection have emphasized the role of the 670 km endothermic phase change in generating avalanches that trigger catastrophic mass transfers between upper and lower mantle. On the other hand, scientists have emphasized the concomitance of large-scale worldwide geophysical and tectonic events, which could find their deep thermal roots in the huge mass transfers induced by the avalanches. In particular, the paleontological records show two periods of length of day (l.o.d.) shortening between 420 and 360, and 200 and 80 Myr BP. This last event is synchronous with a strong true polar wander and a global warming of the upper mantle. In order to study the potential effects of the avalanche on the main component of the Earth’s rotation, the Liouville equation has been solved and the l.o.d. evolution has been calculated from the perturbations of the inertia tensor. The results show that the inertia tensor of the Earth’s is mainly sensitive to the global transfers through the 670 km discontinuity. The l.o.d. perturbations will be synchronous with the global thermal effects of the avalanche. These theoretical results allow proposing a self-consistent physical mechanism to explain periods of the Earth’s rotation acceleration. Within this context, the l.o.d. shortening during the Cenozoic and Cretaceous brings one more clue to the possible participation of a mantle avalanche in generating the concomitant large scale events which have occurred during this very particular period of the Earth’s history.     

Bedrock structure in Adapazari, Turkey—a possible cause of severe damage by the 1999 Kociaeli earthquake

The 1999 Kocaeli earthquake brought serious damage to downtown of Adapazari. To study why strong motions were generated at the town, a bedrock structure was investigated on the basis of Bouguer gravity anomaly, and SPAC and H/V analyses of microseisms. It was revealed that, the basin consists of three narrow depressions of bedrock with very steep edges, extending in E–W or NE–SW directions along the North Anatolia faults, and the depth to bedrock reaches 1000 m or more. Downtown of Adapazari is located 1–2 km apart from the basin-edge. It is considered that, the specific configuration of bedrock amplifies ground motions at the downtown area by focusing of seismic waves and/or interference between incident S-waves and surface-waves secondarily generated at the basin-edge. Studying 3D bedrock structure is an urgent issue for microzoning an urban area in a sedimentary basin.     

区域可持续发展评价:进展与展望

可持续发展的评价是目前可持续发展研究的热点和前沿。当前评价可持续发展的单项指标和指标体系在指标与可持续性的关系、指标权重的选择、指标的定量化、可持续性的总体判别方法、资本替代性与替代速度、指标阈值的确定等方面具有不同的局限性 ,这也是可持续发展评价的主要难点。可持续发展的评价必然要落实到不同尺度的空间地理单元上 ,区域发展是评价的对象 ,因而可持续发展的评价必然具有显著的区域性 ,不同区域的评价指标或指标体系必然会有所不同。社会、经济与人口的发展是人类社会发展的主要目标 ,而发展的可持续性依赖于自然环境的质量 ,包括自然资源的再生或替代、生命支持系统与生物多样性的维持或改善。据此 ,论文构建了区域可持续发展评价的理论框架和发展——可持续性二维评价坐标体系 ,并提出了“自上而下”和“自下而上”的指标遴选方法。