汛限水位动态控制方法在碧流河水库的应用分析

"碧流河水库汛限水位设计与运用研究"成果于2004年经水利部松辽委批复,正式投入运行.在2005～2008年的洪水调度中,在利用气象部门短期降雨预报成果的前提下,采用预蓄预泄动态控制方法对实时洪水进行调节.分析结果表明,在不增加水库运行风险的前提下,应用汛限水位动态控制方法,能增加水库蓄水,效益显著.     

安徽金矿主要特征及找矿方向

安徽省金矿目前不算优势矿产,但却是特色矿产。安徽金矿分布普遍、类型多样,但已探明的资源储量不能满足矿产开发业的需要。随着近年来国家高度重视地质工作,金矿勘查也取得了重要进展,文中指出了今后要重点寻找的金矿类型和重点地区。     

胶东半岛的地质灾害及防治对策建议

胶东半岛地处东北亚,是带动山东半岛乃至全省经济超常规、高速度、跨越式发展的"龙头"区域。近年来,随着经济高速发展,在地质环境脆弱地区诱发的地质灾害逐渐加剧。本文分析了胶东半岛地质环境条件及其与地质灾害的相关性,对胶东半岛地震灾害、地面变形灾害、斜坡环境变异灾害、流体灾害等地质灾害的特征、成因、危害及其防治对策进行了系统的分析,并提出了相应的防治对策。     

内蒙古西部额济纳旗及邻区石炭系-二叠系烃源岩干酪根C同位素的特征和影响因素

许多研究者认为,烃源岩干酪根C同位素组成主要受干酪根类型的影响,可以作为评价烃源岩类型、沉积环境和进行油气源对比的重要指标,并得到广泛应用.对额济纳旗及邻区典型剖面石炭系-二叠系烃源岩有机碳(TOC)的丰度、地球化学特征、热演化特征和干酪根C同位素分布的研究表明.研究区石炭系-二叠系烃源岩为浅海陆棚相沉积环境形成的泥质岩,TOC含量中等,以Ⅱ类干酪根为主,烃源岩演化进入成熟-过成熟阶段,干酪根C同位素县有显著偏重的特点.并且干酪根C同位素组成明显与热演化程度和有机碳丰度有关,随着烃源岩演化程度的不断提高,重碳同位素不断富集,在成熟-过成熟阶段,对C同位素的影响可达4‰～6‰随着TOC含量的增加,干酪根C同位素显著偏轻,影响值可达4‰以上.由于研究区烃源岩已进入成熟-过成熟阶段,干酪根C同位素的分布在演化过程中已经发生较大变化,干酪根类型的影响相对降低或已不显著,不能再作为评价烃源岩干酪根类型的指标.     

河南水灾变化及典型水灾年大气环流异常特征分析

利用河南1950-2007年的逐年水灾统计数据,对水灾年的时间特征进行分析,并对典型水灾年大气环流的异常特征进行分析,结果表明:在1950-2007年的58 a中,河南年年都出现水灾,全省水灾受灾面积66.7万hm2的有28年;66.7万hm2的有30年,约2年一遇;受灾面积133.3万hm2的有17年,约4年一遇;333.3万hm2的有4年,约15年一遇。在河南的典型水灾年,中高纬度的长波和南支系统都有很强的稳定性;亚洲中高纬阻塞形势非常明显,在西西伯利亚上空出现了强烈的偏北风分量,因而冷空气暴发南下非常频繁;副热带高压脊线在24°N左右,584 dgpm线呈西南东北走向,将来自孟加拉湾和南海的充沛水汽带到内陆。河南省正处于来自北方的冷空气和南支系统带来的暖湿气流交汇的区域,这是造成河南省出现严重水灾的主要原因。     

Copula‐based flood frequency (COFF) analysis at the confluences of river systems

Many civil infrastructures are located near the confluence of two streams, where they may be subject to inundation by high flows from either stream or both. These infrastructures, such as highway bridges, are designed to meet specified performance objectives for floods of a specified return period (e.g. the 100 year flood). Because the flooding of structures on one stream can be affected by high flows on the other stream, it is important to know the relationship between the coincident exceedence probabilities on the confluent stream pair in many hydrological engineering practices. Currently, the National Flood Frequency Program (NFF), which was developed by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and based on regional analysis, is probably the most popular model for ungauged site flood estimation and could be employed to estimate flood probabilities at the confluence points. The need for improved infrastructure design at such sites has motivated a renewed interest in the development of more rigorous joint probability distributions of the coincident flows. To accomplish this, a practical procedure is needed to determine the crucial bivariate distributions of design flows at stream confluences. In the past, the copula method provided a way to construct multivariate distribution functions. This paper aims to develop the Copula‐based Flood Frequency (COFF) method at the confluence points with any type of marginal distributions via the use of Archimedean copulas and dependent parameters. The practical implementation was assessed and tested against the standard NFF approach by a case study in Iowa's Des Moines River. Monte Carlo simulations proved the success of the generalized copula‐based joint distribution algorithm. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood simulation using the gauge‐adjusted radar rainfall and physics‐based distributed hydrologic model

This paper reports the results of an investigation into flood simulation by areal rainfall estimated from the combination of gauged and radar rainfalls and a rainfall–runoff model on the Anseong‐cheon basin in the southern part of Korea. The spatial and temporal characteristics and behaviour of rainfall are analysed using various approaches combining radar and rain gauges: (1) using kriging of the rain gauge alone; (2) using radar data alone; (3) using mean field bias (MFB) of both radar and rain gauges; and (4) using conditional merging technique (CM) of both radar and rain gauges. To evaluate these methods, statistics and hyetograph for rain gauges and radar rainfalls were compared using hourly radar rainfall data from the Imjin‐river, Gangwha, rainfall radar site, Korea. Then, in order to evaluate the performance of flood estimates using different rainfall estimation methods, rainfall–runoff simulation was conducted using the physics‐based distributed hydrologic model, Vflo^?. The flood runoff hydrograph was used to compare the calculated hydrographs with the observed one. Results show that the rainfall field estimated by CM methods improved flood estimates, because it optimally combines rainfall fields representing actual spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of historical flood information in the English Midlands to improve risk assessment

Abstract

The Easter 1998 flood was the largest flood event in the gauged record of many basins of the English Midlands. Flood frequency analysis, using such gauged records only, placed the 1998 event at a return period of over 100 years on several basins. However a review of historical (pre-gauged) flooding on some rivers gives a different perspective. Examples are given of the use of historical flood information on the River Leam, the River Wreake at Melton Mowbray, the River Sence (tributary to the River Soar) and the River Frome at Stroud. The cost of acquiring such historical flood data is trivial in comparison to gauged data, but the benefits are demonstrated as significant. In particular, historical flood data provide a better basis for risk assessment and planning on flood plains through revised estimates of flood discharge and depth.     

A note on the applicability of log-Gumbel and log-logistic probability distributions in hydrological analyses: I. Known pdf

Abstract

Two probability density functions (pdf), popular in hydrological analyses, namely the log-Gumbel (LG) and log-logistic (LL), are discussed with respect to (a) their applicability to hydrological data and (b) the drawbacks resulting from their mathematical properties. This paper—the first in a two-part series—examines a classical problem in which the considered pdf is assumed to be the true distribution. The most significant drawback is the existence of the statistical moments of LG and LL for a very limited range of parameters. For these parameters, a very rapid increase of the skewness coefficient, as a function of the coefficient of variation, is observed (especially for the log-Gumbel distribution), which is seldom observed in the hydrological data. These probability distributions can be applied with confidence only to extreme situations. For other cases, there is an important disagreement between empirical data and theoretical distributions in their tails, which is very important for the characterization of the distribution asymmetry. The limited range of shape parameters in both distributions makes the analyses (such as the method of moments), that make use of the interpretation of moments, inconvenient. It is also shown that the often-used L-moments are not sufficient for the characterization of the location, scale and shape parameters of pdfs, particularly in the case where attention is paid to the tail part of probability distributions. The maximum likelihood method guarantees an asymptotic convergence of the estimators beyond the domain of the existence of the first two moments (or L-moments), but it is not sensitive enough to the upper tails shape.