Hydrological extremes in a southwestern Ontario river basin under future climate conditions/Extrêmes hydrologiques dans un basin versant du sud-ouest de l'Ontario sous conditions climatiques futures

Abstract

The global climate change may have serious impacts on the frequency, magnitude, location and duration of hydrological extremes. Changed hydrological extremes will have important implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood-plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of a changed climate on the timing and magnitude of hydrological extremes in a densely populated and urbanized river basin in southwestern Ontario, Canada. An ensemble of future climate scenarios is developed using a weather generating algorithm, linked with GCM outputs. These climate scenarios are then transformed into basin runoff by a semi-distributed hydrological model of the study area. The results show that future maximum river flows in the study area will be less extreme and more variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence, than they are at present. Low flows may become less extreme and variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence. According to the evaluated scenarios, climate change may have favourable impacts on the distribution of hydrological extremes in the study area.     

Determination of flood seasonality from hydrological records / Détermination de la saisonnalité des crues à partir de séries hydrologiques

Abstract

Abstract The identification of flood seasonality is a procedure with many practical applications in hydrology and water resources management. Several statistical methods for capturing flood seasonality have emerged during the last decade. So far, however, little attention has been paid to the uncertainty involved in the use of these methods, as well as to the reliability of their estimates. This paper compares the performance of annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling models in flood seasonality estimation. Flood seasonality is determined by two most frequently used methods, one based on directional statistics (DS) and the other on the distribution of monthly relative frequencies of flood occurrence (RF). The performance is evaluated for the AM and three common POT sampling models depending on the estimation method, flood seasonality type and sample record length. The results demonstrate that the POT models outperform the AM model in most analysed scenarios. The POT sampling provides significantly more information on flood seasonality than the AM sampling. For certain flood seasonality types, POT samples can lead to estimation uncertainty that is found in up to ten-times longer AM samples. The performance of the RF method does not depend on the flood seasonality type as much as that of the DS method, which performs poorly on samples generated from complex seasonality distributions.     

Developing a Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs with J2EE / Développement sur Internet avec J2EE d’un système de prévision de crue pour barrages

Abstract

Abstract A flood forecasting system is a crucial component in flood mitigation. For certain important large-scale reservoirs, cooperation and communication among federal, state, and local stakeholders are required when heavy flood events are encountered. The Web-based environment is emerging as a very important development and delivery platform for real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the findings of a case study are presented of the development of a Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs using Java 2 platform Enterprise Edition (J2EE). J2EE of Sun Microsystems is chosen as the development solution for the Web-based flood forecasting system, Weblogic 6.0 of BEA as the container provider, and JBuilder 7.0 of Borland as the development tool. One of the key objectives in this project is to establish a collaborative platform for flood forecasting via Web technology in order to render hydrological models and data available to stakeholders and experts involved and thus offer an efficient medium for transferring and sharing information, knowledge and experiences among them. Compared with general Web-based query systems and traditional flood forecasting systems, the Web-based flood forecasting system is more focused on the on-line analysis of model-based forecasting of floods and provides opportunities for improving the transfer of information and knowledge from the hydrological scientists and managers to decision makers. Finally, a prototype system is used to demonstrate the system application.     

Fully coupled free‐surface flow and sediment transport modelling of flash floods in a desert stream in the Mojave Desert,California

For most of the year, a dry‐bed desert wash is void of water flow. Intensive rain events, however, could trigger significant flash floods that bring about highly complicated hydrodynamics and morphodynamics processes within a desert stream. We present a fully coupled three‐phase flow model of air, water, and sediment to simulate numerically the propagation of a flash flood in a field‐scale fluvial desert stream, the so‐called Tex Wash located in the Mojave Desert, California, United States. The turbulent flow of the flash flood is computed using the three‐dimensional unsteady Reynolds‐averaged Navier–Stokes equations closed with the shear stress transport k ? ω model. The free surface of the flash flood at the interface of air and water phases is computed with the level‐set method, which enables instantaneous tracking of the water surface as the flash flood propagates over the dry bed of the desert stream. The evolution of the desert fluvial stream's morphology, due to the action of the propagating flash flood on the mobile bed, is calculated using a Eulerian morphodynamics model based on the curvilinear immersed boundary method. The capabilities of the proposed numerical framework are demonstrated by applying it to simulate a flash flood event in a 0.65‐km ‐long reach of the Tex Wash, the intricate channel morphology of which is obtained using light imaging detection and ranging technology. The simulated region of the stream includes a number of bridge foundations. The simulation results of the model for the flash flood event revealed the formation of a highly complex flow field and scour patterns within the stream. Moreover, our simulation results showed that most scour processes take place during the steady phase of the flash flood, that is, after the flash flood fills the stream. The transient phase of the flash flood is rather short and contributes to a very limited amount of erosion within the desert stream.     

Qualitative and quantitative characterization of a transitional shale reservoir: A case study from the Upper Carboniferous Taiyuan shale in the eastern uplift of Liaohe Depression,China

The paper takes the Upper Carboniferous Taiyuan shale in eastern uplift of Liaohe depression as an example to qualitatively and quantitatively characterize the transitional (coal-associated coastal swamp) shale reservoir. Focused Ion Beam Scanning Electron Microscope (FIB-SEM), nano-CT, helium pycnometry, high-pressure mercury intrusion and low-pressure gas (N₂ & CO₂) adsorption for eight shale samples were taken to investigate the pore structures. Four types of pores, i.e., organic matter (OM) pores, interparticle (InterP) pores, intraparticle (IntraP) pores and micro-fractures are identified in the shale reservoir. Among them, intraP pores and micro-fractures are the major pore types. Slit-shaped pores are the major shape in the pore system, and the connectivity of the pore-throat system is interpreted to be moderate, which is subordinate to marine shale. The porosity from three dimension (3D) reconstruction of SEM images is lower than the porosity of helium pycnometry, while the porosity trend of the above two methods is the same. Combination of mercury intrusion and gas absorption reveals that nanometer-scale pores provide the main storage space, accounting for 87.16% of the pore volume and 99.85% of the surface area. Micropores contribute 34.74% of the total pore volume and 74.92% of the total pore surface area; and mesopores account for 48.27% of the total pore volume and 24.93% of the total pore surface area; and macropores contribute 16.99% of the total pore volume and 0.15% of the total pore surface area. Pores with a diameter of less than 10 nm contribute the most to the pore volume and the surface area, accounting for 70.29% and 97.70%, respectively. Based on single factor analysis, clay minerals are positively related to the volume and surface area of micropores, mesopores and macropores, which finally control the free gas in pores and adsorbed gas content on surface area. Unlike marine shale, TOC contributes little to the development of micropores. Brittle minerals inhibit pore development of Taiyuan shale, which proves the influence of clay minerals in the pore system.     

Allometric relations between fluvial impulse and morphometric parameters of floodplain lakes

The general role of river water input in shaping the basic morphometric parameters of floodplain lakes has been previously investigated. However, the process has not been quantitatively described in detail. This study is the first attempt in the literature to determine the allometric relation between fluvial impulse, expressed as Fluvial Connectivity Quotient, and morphometric parameters of six floodplain lakes of Bug River valley in the period 1952–2014. This relationship is given by Y = aX^b, from which the value of b exponent was analysed to determine the strength of the allometric relation. Extreme values of allometric compounds during the time period under study ranged from 5.99 to ?4.91. Volume was the morphometric parameter showing the highest variability in all the lakes. General similarity in allometric relations was observed in the lakes under study. During analysis, no long‐term trends were observed in the relationship between the Fluvial Connectivity Quotient and morphometric parameters. The results obtained show that fluvial impulse was the factor determining the variability of morphometric parameters of the lakes. Direct catchments topography of lake has periodically (during limnophase periods) played a significant role in shaping the morphometry of floodplain lakes. The most stable allometric relations occurred in a confluent lake, with a low limnological effective rise value and consequently, relatively long potamophase periods.Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Explanatory analysis of the relationship between atmospheric circulation and occurrence of flood‐generating events in a coastal city

The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of the occurrence of flood‐generating events in urban areas by analysing the relationship between large‐scale atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation events, extreme sea water level events and their simultaneous occurrence, respectively. To describe the atmospheric circulation, we used the Lamb circulation type (LCT) classification and re‐grouped it into Lamb circulation classes (LCC). The daily LCCs/LCTs were connected with rare precipitation and water‐level events in Aarhus, a Danish coastal city. Westerly and cyclonic LCCs (W, C, SW and NW) showed a significantly high occurrence of extreme precipitation. Similarly, for extreme water‐level events westerly LCCs (W and SW) showed a significantly high occurrence. Significantly low occurrence of extreme precipitation and water‐level events was obtained in easterly LCCs (NE, E and SE). For concurrent events, significantly high occurrence was obtained in LCC W. We assessed the change in LCC occurrence frequency in the future based on two regional climate models (RCMs). The projections indicate that the westerly directions in LCCs are expected to increase in the future. Consequently, simultaneous occurrence of extreme water level and precipitation events is expected to increase in the future as a result of change in LCC frequencies. The RCM projections for LCC frequencies are uncertain because the representation of current LCCs is poor; a large number of days cannot be classified and the frequencies of the days that can be classified differ from the observed time series. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of local hydrogeologic forcings on near‐stream event water recharge and retention (Upper San Pedro River,Arizona)

The rise in stream stage during high flow events (floods) can induce losing stream conditions, even along stream reaches that are gaining during baseflow conditions. The aquifer response to flood events can affect the geochemical composition of both near‐stream groundwater and post‐event streamflow, but the amount and persistence of recharged floodwater may differ as a function of local hydrogeologic forcings. As a result, this study focuses on how vertical flood recharge varies under different hydrogeologic forcings and the significance that recharge processes can have on groundwater and streamflow composition after floods. River and shallow groundwater samples were collected along three reaches of the Upper San Pedro River (Arizona, USA) before, during and after the 2009 and 2010 summer monsoon seasons. Tracer data from these samples indicate that subsurface floodwater propagation and residence times are strongly controlled by the direction and magnitude of the dominant stream–aquifer gradient. A reach that is typically strongly gaining shows minimal floodwater retention shortly after large events, whereas the moderately gaining and losing reaches can retain recharged floodwater from smaller events for longer periods. The moderately gaining reach likely returned flood recharge to the river as flow declined. These results indicate that reach‐scale differences in hydrogeologic forcing can control (i) the amount of local flood recharge during events and (ii) the duration of its subsurface retention and possible return to the stream during low‐flow periods. Our observations also suggest that the presence of floodwater in year‐round baseflow is not due to long‐term storage beneath the streambed along predominantly gaining reaches, so three alternative mechanisms are suggested: (i) repeated flooding that drives lateral redistribution of previously recharged floodwater, (ii) vertical recharge on the floodplain during overbank flow events and (iii) temporal variability in the stream–aquifer gradient due to seasonally varying water demands of riparian vegetation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

时空大数据在城市群建设与管理中的应用研究进展

伴随新型城镇化进程的不断推进,城市群已经成为地区社会经济发展的重要核心。大数据时代的到来促使新兴时空大数据在城市/城市群建设与管理中发挥着重要作用,并成为当前学术界的研究热点。大数据挖掘技术与融合分析技术将成为未来研究城市群的重要方法。本研究总结归纳了时空大数据在城市群建设与管理中的应用研究进展,对常见城市群时空大数据类型、获取方法和分析技术进行分类整理,并对基于资源调查和多源时空数据分析的城市/城市群研究进展进行分析,特别是对时空大数据及其技术在城市群建设与管理中的主要研究展开归类分析,认为目前时空大数据在城市群建设与管理应用领域主要涉及5大方向：城市群空间界定与发展监测、交通网络监测、关联性分析与功能布局评价、产业协同分析和环境监测与评估。最后,本文分析了现阶段时空大数据在城市群建设与管理应用中的发展瓶颈,提出了相关对策建议,并对未来研究发展趋势提出了展望。     

A hydro‐economic modelling framework for flood damage estimation and the role of riparian vegetation

A modelling framework for the quick estimate of flood inundation and the resultant damages is developed in this paper. The model, called the flood economic impact analysis system (FEIAS), can be applied to a river reach of any hydrogeological river basin. For the development of the integrated modelling framework, three models were employed: (1) a modelling scheme based on the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN model that was developed for any geomorphological river basin, (2) a river flow/floodplain model, and (3) a flood loss estimation model. The first sub‐model of the flood economic impact analysis system simulates the hydrological processes for extended periods of time, and its output is used as input to a second component, the river/floodplain model. The hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi‐2D) is the river/floodplain model employed in this study. The simulated flood parameters from the hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi‐2D) are passed, at the end of each time step, to a third component, the flood loss model for the estimation of flood damage. In the present work, emphasis was given to the seasonal variation of Manning's coefficient (n), which is an important parameter for the determination of the flood inundation in hydraulic modelling. High values of Manning's coefficient for a channel indicate high flow resistance. The riparian vegetation can have a large impact on channel resistance. The modelling framework developed in this paper was used to investigate the role of riparian vegetation in reducing flood damage. Moreover, it was used to investigate the influence of cutting riparian vegetation scenarios on the flow characteristics. The proposed framework was applied to the downstream part of the Koiliaris River basin in Crete, Greece, and was tested and validated with historical data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.