黄河上游梯级水电站施工洪水优化设计方法探讨--以黄河公伯峡水电站施工洪水优化设计为例

梯级水电站设计洪水方法一直是梯级水电站水文设计的难点．几十年来在黄河上游梯级电站设计中已总结出一套比较完整的设计洪水及施工洪水计算方法。通过黄河公伯峡水电站施工洪水优化设计过程，论述了该套方法．并就目前存在的一些观点及疑问给予了较为明确的回答。     

国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践

对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。     

大汶河流域洪灾的成因及防治对策

阐述了大汶河流域洪涝灾害的特点,并对洪涝灾害发生的原因进行了分析,提出了预防为主、综合治理、系统防治和重点防治相结合、标本兼治的防治思路及具体防治对策.     

湖北蕲春花岗岩类锆石SHRIMP年龄：大别山造山带内弱变质—未变质晋宁期花岗岩类的发现

蕲春花岗质杂岩体包括斑状二长花岗岩和花岗岩两部分,它们之间在化学性质上存在着很大的差异,前者表现为高Al 2O3(15.73%)、相对高CaO(2.46%)、Na2O含量明显高于K2O(Na2O/K2O=1.27),尤以强烈亏损重稀土元素和极强的轻、重稀土元素分馏程度[(La/Yb)N=46.8]为特征而类似于太古宙高Al2O3的TTG岩石.而后者则以较低的Al2O3含量(14.05%)、贫CaO(0.82%)、K2O含量明显高于Na2O(Na2O/K2O=0.81)为特征,轻、重稀土元素的分馏程度[(La/Yb)N=10.89]也较片麻状二长花岗岩中弱得多.两类岩石中锆石的U-PbSHRIMP年龄分别为824.6±17.6 Ma和784±20 Ma,该时代与大别山造山带内花岗片麻岩的原岩形成年龄类似.大别山造山带内弱变质-未变质晋宁期花岗岩的出现表明扬子板块印支期向北俯冲时,该花岗质杂岩处于俯冲板片的后缘,可代表造山带内扬子基底的原地露头.而岩体周围的高压变质杂岩应是折返上来的无根构造岩片,大别山造山带内高压超高压变质杂岩的出露不是整体性抬升剥蚀的结果.     

Dynamik der Schilfröhrichte am Bodensee unter dem Einfluss von Wasserstandsvariationen

On the basis of different sets of aerial photos the dynamics of the reed bed areas of Lake Constance were investigated in relation to the dynamics of the water levels. The objectives of the study were to quantify the changes of reed areas due to different flood events in the last decades and their recovery in the time periods between these events. The results should given information of the relevance of water level variations on reed bed dynamics and the regeneration times of reed beds after extreme disturbance events.Following the extreme flood at Lake Constance in 1999 the reed belts of Lake Constance lost approximately 30 ha (24%) of the lakeside reed beds. The loss is comparable to the situation in the late 1960s, when approximately 40 ha died back due to the extreme flood in 1965 and the high spring water levels in the subsequent years. In the time period between the extreme floods of 1965 and 1999, the reed areas expanded to nearly 85% of the area before 1965. The expansion rates increased with increasing distance to the flood event of 1965. Especially in periods with series of years of low spring water level the expansion rates were high.The damage degrees of the reed areas in the years 2000 and 2002 showed a clear relation to the elevation (i.e. average water level) of the stands. The damage degree increased with decreasing elevation. Furthermore the regeneration process of severely damaged stands was related to the elevation level of the stands. Whereas stands at high elevation regenerate fast, those at low elevation died off completely in the years after the extreme flood. This supports the hypothesis that the water level flutuations play a major role in the reed dynamics of Lake Constance.As a consequence of the climate change an increase in the frequency of high spring water levels is expected. Thus, it seems unlikely that reed stands will ever expand again to the same area as before 1965.     

Probability-consistent spectrum and code spectrum

IntroductionInChina,thecombinationofseismicdesigncodewithzoningmapofseismicintensityorgroundmotionparametersisusuallyadoptedtodeterminetheseismicfortificationcriterionforthegeneralindustryandcivilbuildings.Thepresentproceduresareasfollows.Accordingtothepro-jectlocation,thedesignbasicaccelerationofgroundmotionandthedesigncharacteristicperiodofresponsespectrumareobtainedfromthezoningmapofseismicgroundmotionparameters(GeneralAdministrationofQualitySupervision,InspectionandQuarantineofthePeople…     

Period formulas of shear wall buildings with flexible bases

The evaluation of the fundamental period of shear wall buildings considering the flexibility of the base is investigated in this paper. This research is motivated by the discrepancy reported between the formulas used in different building codes and the measurement of real buildings. Both experimental and analytical approaches are used to assess the effect of the base flexibility on the fundamental period of shear wall structures. In total, twenty buildings built on different types of soil are tested under ambient vibration. The fundamental period is identified using a non‐parametric linear model in the frequency domain. The results show that fundamental period formulas used by UBC‐97 and NBCC‐95 are inadequate since they do not include the effect of the foundation stiffness. To improve the estimation of the fundamental period of shear wall buildings, an analytical approach is presented. The structure and the foundation are represented by a continuous‐discrete system. The stiffnesses of the base are represented by translational and rotational discrete springs. The rigidities of these springs are evaluated from the elastic uniform compression of the soil mass and the size of the foundation. The analytical predictions improve the estimation of the fundamental period and keep the computation simple. The error between the measured period and the analytical results is, on average, less than 10%. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江中下游旱涝中期预报方法及其业务应用

介绍了双层多因子综合相似的长江中下游旱涝中期预报模型。该模型引入了具有明确动力学和热力学意义的地转西风动量经向输送和经向温度梯度诊断量，同时强调了西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游夏季降水的关键作用，并考虑了对流层中、低层500hPa高度和850hPa温度的大尺度环流背景场。与过去业务应用的单层相似预报模型相比较，不仅物理意义和天气学含义明确，而且更符合对具有复杂动力和热力机制的降水预报的考虑。5年的预报试验和业务应用结果表明，该方法对长江中下游地区旱涝的中期趋势预报有较好的预报能力。     

2003年淮河流域大水期间体积降水量的研究

针对 2 0 0 3年梅雨期淮河流域大水提出了体积降水量的概念及其计算方法 ,在计算出淮河流域和其各子流域逐日和总体积降水量的基础上 ,将体积降水量与水文站的水位和流量进行了对比分析。结果表明 :水位对累计体积降水量有较好的即时响应 ,流量对体积降水量有较好的延迟响应。另外 ,讨论了流域体积降水量的预报问题 ,用国内外数值天气预报产品和中央气象台指导预报产品 ,进行了流域体积降水量预报试验 ,并对预报结果进行了检验分析。结果表明 :在目前天气预报水平条件下 ,利用数值天气预报和中央气象台业务预报产品制作体积降水量是可行的 ,能够延长洪水预报的预见期 ;而且 ,数值天气预报产品在预报体积降水量方面有明显的优势 ,因此可以直接利用数值天气预报产品进行体积降水量的客观预报 ,为防汛工作提供重要的依据。     

2003年异常气候对清徐葡萄的影响

气候对葡萄生长发育的影响十分关键，以光照、温度和降水三要素为主。利用清徐地面气象资料，根据葡萄各生育阶段对气候资源的需求特点，比照该时期年内的实际气候状况，着重分析年度内气候异常与葡萄产量下降、品质降低之间的关系，并就如何减缓气候对葡萄生产的不利影响进行初步探讨。