深圳市前汛期西风带大暴雨天气形势特征

对1978～2008年深圳市前汛期西风带大暴雨期间的500、850 hPa和地面环流形势进行统计分析,发现深圳市前汛期大暴雨过程多由西风带系统引起,占总数的77%。4～6月均可出现大暴雨,6月份最多,4月份次多,5月份最少。深圳前汛期西风带系统大暴雨过程按天气形势特征分为锋面低槽和暖区两类,其中锋面低槽类又分东北低涡(低槽)型和西南低涡型。     

Precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Osciliation

The precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated, especially in the eastern China, using the rather long period rainfall data in this century. The results show that there were remarkable differences between the precipitation patterns in flood seasons of ENSO warm phase (El Niño year) and cold phase (La Niña year), as well as between the patterns in El Niño years and their following years. The most parts of China received below normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of El Niño events, but the coastal area of Southeast China received above normal amounts. Comparatively, the most parts of China received above normal rainfall in flood season of the following years of El Niño events, but the eastern part of the reaches among the Huanghe (Yellow) River, the Huaihe River and the Haihe River, and the Northeast China received less. During ENSO cold phase, the reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and the North China received more amounts than normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of La Niña events, and the other regions of China received less. In the following years of La Niña events, the coastal area of the Southeast China, the most part of the Northeast China and the regions between the Huanghe River and the Huaihe River received more precipitation during flood seasons, but the other parts received below normal precipitation.     

四川及邻区抗倒塌地震区划图编制

通过数字试验,分析了不同编图方法对地震区划结果的影响.基于四川及邻区的地震地质环境、地震活动特征,K2值特征,△Tg分布特征,考虑到地震区划图的继承性和连续性以及与我国现行抗震设计规范的衔接,提出了抗倒塌地震区划图编制的编制原则和方法,编制了四川及邻区的抗倒塌地震区划图.     

Heavy metal inflow into the floodplains at the mouth of the river Weiße Elster (Central Germany)

From 1998 to 2002 investigations were carried out to estimate both the quantity and quality (heavy metal contents) of suspended matter loads discharged into a floodplain area measuring approx. 5 km² of the Central German river Weiße Elster, a tributary of the river Saale in the Elbe river basin. Flood sediments, suspended particulate matter, and floodplain soils were investigated especially for the main pollutants Cd, Zn, Cu, Pb, Cr, and Hg. Supplementary gamma spectroscopy examinations were performed to help to identify the age of deposits in order to estimate sedimentation rates for last decades. The recent flood sediments are contaminated by up to 33 times the geogenic background (Cd). Up to 55% of the total annual SPM load of the river Weiße Elster is relocated into the investigated retention area in the flood‐stricken year 2002. The sedimentation rates for the last 50 years vary between 0.5 mm/a and 1 mm/a in far away and rarely flooded parts and between 1 mm/a and 2 mm/a in the frequently flooded parts of the inflow of the retention area.     

贵州茂兰峰丛草地洼地小流域侵蚀产沙的137Cs法研究

在贵州茂兰峰丛洼地区的工程碑草地洼地典型小流域进行了洼地沉积泥沙^137Cs示踪分析研究。研究结果表明：（1）草地洼地土壤剖面属于堆积土壤剖面,土壤剖面中^137Cs浓度分布特征反映了泥沙堆积与表层土壤侵蚀的信息。受岩土分布、微地形的影响,^137Cs初始沉降后出现不均匀再分布,面积活度的空间变化较大,变异系数为1.35,不能表征土壤侵蚀状况。（2）根据草地洼地典型堆积农耕地土壤剖面A-1的^137Cs浓度分布特征,1963年以来的流域平均堆积泥沙数量是16.6t/km^2.a,流域平均土壤侵蚀速率为45.95t/km^2.a,约占侵蚀产沙数量63.88%的泥沙以地下流失的形式散失;（3）草地洼地小流域内地面土壤流失与地下土壤流失的相对贡献率分别是70.13%和29.87%;（4）以茂兰地区最大成土速率为依据推算出的允许土壤侵蚀量是13.51t/km^2.a,草地洼地的土壤侵蚀危险程度极高。     

上海市防汛辅助决策系统研究

针对威胁上海的三大水灾，研制暴雨积水模型、风暴潮模型、河网水力模型、灾害评估模型，在GIS基础上建立了上海市防汛辅助决策系统，实现了对处于平原感潮河网的上海市洪涝灾害的实时监测、分析预报、风险评估和网上发布。为分析洪涝形势、制定防汛成灾方案、进行灾情评估以及工程管理，提供准确、及时、全面的信息支持。阐述了系统的总体设计、功能模块、关键技术和特色，分析了GIS、水动力学模型在系统中的作用。     

湖北宜昌市暴雨雨型的演变特征

基于1980—2018年武汉国家基本气象观测站逐分钟降雨数据,分别利用同频率分析法和Huff雨型分析法确定武汉主城区历时1 440 min设计暴雨雨型,并采用InfoWorks ICM水力模型软件对雨水管网进行模拟计算,分析两种设计暴雨雨型的雨峰、降雨量时间分布和积水情况,研究结果表明：（1）基于同频率分析法和Huff雨型分析法确定的武汉主城区历时1 440 min设计暴雨雨型均为单峰型,两者雨峰位置均略微超前整场降雨过程的前2/3分位,在降雨时程的60%~70%阶段,前者降雨强度迅速增加,大于后者。（2）在同频率分析法确定的武汉主城区历时1 440 min设计暴雨雨型下,武汉汉口中心城区的淹没面积均大于Huff雨型分析法的确定结果,且水深、流量、流速等峰值均较大。（3）同频率分析法确定的设计暴雨雨型结果使得武汉主城区系统内达标管网比例更低,积水情况更严重。

     

乌鲁木齐河“960719”洪水分析

本文依据大量实测洪水数据对乌鲁齐河“９６０７１９”洪水的来源,特点及时空分布变化进行了讨论,分析了这场洪水的重现期,并提出了有关建议。     

High-resolution sedimentary record of lead in the coastal mud of the East China Sea in the past one hundred and fifty years

In the East China Sea （ECS）, there are some mud areas, including the south coastal mud area, the north coastal mud area, and the mud area to the southwest of Cheju Island. X-ray fluorescence （XRF） techniques and Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry （TIMS） were used to study the high-resolution sedimentary record of Pb concentrations and Pb stable isotopic compositions in the past one hundred and fifty years in the coastal mud of the ECS. Pb concentrations of a ^210Pb dating S5 core in the study area have increased rapidly since 1980, and reached the maximal value with 65.08 μg/g in 2000, corresponding to the fast economic development of China since the implementation of the ＂Reform and Open Policy＂ in 1978; ^206Pb/^207Pb ratios generally had stabilized at 1.195 from 1860 to 1966, and decreased gradually from 1966 to 2000, indicating that the anthropogenic source Pb contribution to the ECS has increased gradually since 1966, especially since 1980. Pb concentrations decreased distinctly from 2000 to 2003 and ^206Pb/^207Pb ratios increased from 2001 to 2003, corresponding closely to the ban of lead gasoline from 2000 in China. From 1950 to 2003, there occurred four distinct decrease events of ^206Pb/^207Pb, possibly responding to the Changjiang River （Yangtze River） catastrophic floods in 1998, 1991, 1981 and 1954; from 1860 to 1966, there were two decrease periods of ^206Pb/^207Pb, which may respond to the catastrophic floods of Changjiang River in 1931 and 1935, and 1870. As a result of the erosion and drowning by the catastrophic floods, the anthropogenic lead accumulated in soil and water environments over a long period of time was brought into the Changjiang River, then part of them was finally transported into the ECS, which leads to changes in Pb stable isotopic composition.     

阿克苏河流域1999年夏季洪水气象条件分析和预报服务

1999年 7月中旬到 8月上旬 ,阿克苏河流域出现历史罕见洪水。高温融雪以及山区降水是这次洪水的主要气象成因。 5 0 0hPa南疆稳定的副热带高压和中亚到帕米尔高原一带的副热带低槽是造成阿克苏河流域特大洪水的主要影响系统。