1996年全球重大气候事件概述

１９９６年，全球平均气温低于１９９５年，但从总体上来讲，气候仍比常年偏暖，是８０年代以来连续出现的第１１个暖年。１９９５／１９９６年冬季，中高纬度地区经向环流旺盛，欧洲、北美东部出现异常冷冬，许多地区遇到数十年未见的风雪严寒；前几年的大范围持久干旱已大大减弱或完全解除，高温热浪的强度与范围也明显少于上年。而洪涝却十分频繁，各洲洪水不断，亚洲尤为严重。北大西洋飓风继去年达５０年来最多之后，今年仍十分活跃。这些气候特点，可能与１９９５／１９９６年赤道太平洋大气状况由长达５年之久的暖位相特征转变为冷位相有关。     

华北夏季旱涝的前期环流异常及其与北太平洋海温的关系

文章分析了华北地区夏季旱涝的前期春季大气环流和北太平洋海温异常（ＳＳＴＡ）分布特征，探讨ＳＳＴＡ与异常环流的关系，并用ＯＳＵ－ＡＧＣＭ进行黑潮地区热源异常强迫的数值试验．结果表明，当春季北极低涡明显减弱，欧亚大陆中高纬度地区纬向环流加强，西太平洋副高位置偏北偏西，且存在负ＰＮＡ型异常环流时，华北地区夏季多雨涝；反之则少雨干旱．此时，西北太平洋和赤道东太平洋ＳＳＴ分别存在较大的正、负异常，它们与春季环流异常密切相关，黑潮区ＳＳＴＡ对北半球副热带及其以北的大气环流产生显著影响，正的ＳＳＴＡ是造成华北夏涝年的前期春季异常环流形势的重要因素．     

洪泛平原农村居民地空间分布特征定量研究及应用探讨

通过对影响居民地空间分布因素的分析,探讨了洪泛平原农村居民地空间分布特征;利用地理信息系统技术对不同高程带内居民地分布规模、等级和空间分布密度作了定量研究,得到了居民地空间分布密度和人口空间分布密度参数;并结合洪灾淹没区居民地损失的估算,对研究结果的应用作了探讨。     

推求无资料地区设计洪水的一种方法

在地貌单位线、菲利浦下渗公式和暴雨特征频率分布的基础上,引用产流开始时刻和净雨量的概念,推求不同净雨情况下不产流暴雨事件的概率,从而求得洪峰流量小于和等于给定Q_p值的理论频率分布及其相应的重现期。在贵州和山西应用结果表明,该方法更适用于半干旱地区。由模型验证实例分析了这种理论洪水频率分布模型的应用前景。     

用地质学的观点探讨洞庭湖的治理

洞庭湖是一断陷盆地，至今仍在继续下沉，因围湖筑垸使水面减小，泥砂堆积速度大于湖区下沉速度使湖面进一步缩小，致使洪水季节常泛滥成灾。按地质规律科学治理方案，一是退垸还湖，二是垸湖置换，才能从根本上消除洞庭湖的水灾。     

黄河上游梯级水电站施工洪水优化设计方法探讨--以黄河公伯峡水电站施工洪水优化设计为例

梯级水电站设计洪水方法一直是梯级水电站水文设计的难点．几十年来在黄河上游梯级电站设计中已总结出一套比较完整的设计洪水及施工洪水计算方法。通过黄河公伯峡水电站施工洪水优化设计过程，论述了该套方法．并就目前存在的一些观点及疑问给予了较为明确的回答。     

国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践

对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。     

大汶河流域洪灾的成因及防治对策

阐述了大汶河流域洪涝灾害的特点,并对洪涝灾害发生的原因进行了分析,提出了预防为主、综合治理、系统防治和重点防治相结合、标本兼治的防治思路及具体防治对策.     

Metamorphism and metamorphic K–Ar ages of the Mesozoic accretionary complex in Northland, New Zealand

Abstract A southwest dipping Mesozoic accretionary complex, which consists of tectonically imbricated turbiditic mudstone and sandstone, hemipelagic siliceous mudstone, and bedded cherts and basaltic rocks of pelagic origin, is exposed in northern North Island, New Zealand. Interpillow limestone is sometimes contained in the basaltic rocks. The grade of subduction‐related metamorphism increases from northeast to southwest, indicating an inverted metamorphic gradient dip. Three metamorphic facies are recognized largely on the basis of mineral parageneses in sedimentary and basaltic rocks: zeolite, prehnite‐pumpellyite and pumpellyite‐actinolite. From the apparent interplanar spacing d₀₀₂ data for carbonaceous material, which range from 3.642 to 3.564 Å, the highest grade of metamorphism is considered to have attained only the lowermost grade of the pumpellyite‐actinolite facies for which the highest temperature may be approximately 300°C. Metamorphic white mica K–Ar ages are reported for magnetic separates and <2 µm hydraulic elutriation separates from 27 pelitic and semipelitic samples. The age data obtained from elutriation separates are approximately 8 m.y. younger, on average, than those from magnetic separates. The age difference is attributed to the possible admixture of nonequilibrated detrital white mica in the magnetic separates, and the age of the elutriation separates is considered to be the age of metamorphism. If the concept, based on fossil evidence, of the subdivision of the Northland accretionary complex into north and south units is accepted, then the peak age of metamorphism in the north unit is likely to be 180–130 Ma; that is, earliest Middle Jurassic to early Early Cretaceous, whereas that in the south unit is 150–130 Ma; that is, late Late Jurassic to early Early Cretaceous. The age cluster for the north unit correlates with that of the Chrystalls Beach–Taieri Mouth section (uncertain terrane), while the age cluster for the south unit is older than that of the Younger Torlesse Subterrane in the Wellington area, and may be comparable with that of the Nelson and Marlborough areas (Caples and Waipapa terranes).     

Dynamik der Schilfröhrichte am Bodensee unter dem Einfluss von Wasserstandsvariationen

On the basis of different sets of aerial photos the dynamics of the reed bed areas of Lake Constance were investigated in relation to the dynamics of the water levels. The objectives of the study were to quantify the changes of reed areas due to different flood events in the last decades and their recovery in the time periods between these events. The results should given information of the relevance of water level variations on reed bed dynamics and the regeneration times of reed beds after extreme disturbance events.Following the extreme flood at Lake Constance in 1999 the reed belts of Lake Constance lost approximately 30 ha (24%) of the lakeside reed beds. The loss is comparable to the situation in the late 1960s, when approximately 40 ha died back due to the extreme flood in 1965 and the high spring water levels in the subsequent years. In the time period between the extreme floods of 1965 and 1999, the reed areas expanded to nearly 85% of the area before 1965. The expansion rates increased with increasing distance to the flood event of 1965. Especially in periods with series of years of low spring water level the expansion rates were high.The damage degrees of the reed areas in the years 2000 and 2002 showed a clear relation to the elevation (i.e. average water level) of the stands. The damage degree increased with decreasing elevation. Furthermore the regeneration process of severely damaged stands was related to the elevation level of the stands. Whereas stands at high elevation regenerate fast, those at low elevation died off completely in the years after the extreme flood. This supports the hypothesis that the water level flutuations play a major role in the reed dynamics of Lake Constance.As a consequence of the climate change an increase in the frequency of high spring water levels is expected. Thus, it seems unlikely that reed stands will ever expand again to the same area as before 1965.