基于FloodArea模型新疆山洪淹没模拟及致灾临界雨量阈值的研究——以皮里青河流域为例

以皮里青河流域为研究区,运用小时降水、土地利用类型、数字高程（DEM）、实测淹没深度等数据,基于FloodArea模型对研究区2010年5月2日、2012年6月3日、2016年5月9日、2016年6月17日洪水过程进行再现模拟,通过精度验证并建立了降水－淹没深度的关系,在此基础上确定了4个淹没等级对应的致灾临界雨量。相关分析得出喀拉亚尕奇乡累计8 h降雨量与模拟洪水淹没深度的相关性最好,达到了0.96,潘津乡降雨累计5 h的相关性最好,为0.99;通过实测数据对模拟淹没深度进行精度检验得出,喀拉亚尕奇乡和潘津乡两个考察点相对误差分别为0.47 m和0.1 m,误差率分别为31.33%和7.69%,FloodArea模型对研究区洪水过程模拟的效果较好,可以反映出该区域的洪水淹没情况,能为无水文资料的山区流域的山洪过程进行较为精准的模拟;按照山洪灾害等级划分标准和降水-淹没深度的关系得出,预警点累计5 h降水得到对应4个等级的致灾临界雨量阈值分别为：四级17.84 mm、三级32.39 mm、二级54.21 mm、一级76.04 mm。     

Use of Geospatial Data and Technology for Wilderness Search and Rescue by Nonprofit Organizations

Geospatial data and tools are key in locating lost or missing persons in as short a time as possible. In this study, we used a geographic information system (GIS) to analyze four years of search and rescue (SAR) mission data from Colorado to determine the appropriate use of GIS for volunteer-based SAR organizations with limited resources and GIS expertise. GIS can provide more sophisticated analyses of geospatial data than simple mapping technologies, but our findings indicated that complex spatial analysis might not be required on all missions, because the majority of missions were completed within six to ten hours. Instead, new technologies such as tablets with mapping software and online GIS systems that provide quick and easy access to up-to-date geospatial data such as imagery offer capabilities that could improve mission planning. Here we provide a framework in which SAR missions can apply geospatial technologies to aid with missions, identify critical “hotspots,” and enhance postanalysis and training. The work here is highly applicable for nonprofit SAR groups when deciding on what GIS technologies to consider for their areas.     

The Beach Crowding Index: A Tool for Assessing Social Carrying Capacity of Vulnerable Beaches

The aim of this article is to introduce the Beach Crowding Index (BCI), a procedure to assess the social carrying capacity of vulnerable beaches. The study uses the people at one time (PAOT) approach and data gathered weekly throughout the bathing season regarding the number of beachgoers in 100 m² cells of the beach to assess how many beachgoers it can comfortably hold. The procedure is based on fieldwork, interviews with beachgoers, and geographic information system (GIS) analysis and has been tested on four beaches in protected areas on the Spanish Mediterranean coast. On a scale from 0 to 4, minimum scores throughout the bathing season are 0.7 and maximum 3.7, although results showed wide variation between the beaches, the section of the beach, and the time of day. This study suggests that determining the location of beachgoers and collecting a long-term series of data is fundamental to assessing social carrying capacity and that the BCI procedure can be used for a large number of applications.     

Reconciling Multiple Societal Objectives in Cross-Scale Marine Governance: Solomon Islands’ Engagement in the Coral Triangle Initiative

Environmental governance aims to reconcile an expanding set of societal objectives at ever-larger scales despite the challenges that remain in integrating conservation and development at smaller scales. We interrogate Solomon Islands’ engagement in the Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security to contribute new insight on the scalar politics of multi-level marine governance. We show how regional objectives are re-interpreted and prioritized as they translate into national policy and practice. Our data suggest that enhanced coordination of finances and activities, integration of objectives in shared protocols and priority geographies, and a subtle shift in power relations between the state, donors, and implementation partners have resulted from processes of re-scaling. We discuss important procedural adjustments in cross-level and cross-scale governance across jurisdictional, institutional, and sectoral scales. We also reflect on the changing role of national governments in shifts toward large-scale, multi-national initiatives.     

Indigenous Land Management in Peri-Urban Landscapes: An Australian Example

This article examines roles, opportunities, and challenges for Indigenous land management in rapidly developing landscapes through a case study of Bunya Bunya Country Aboriginal Corporation, a not-for-profit organization on the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Australia. An analysis of data collected through semistructured interviews, participant observation, and analysis of secondary sources reveals that Aboriginal land managers work in a variety of roles to manage issues affecting the local environment and cultural heritage sites. These efforts are challenged by the absence of Native Title and colonial land management policies, which restrict Aboriginal involvement in land management. We conclude that there is a need for alternative pathways to engage with Aboriginal land managers who cannot, or choose not to, proceed with Native Title. Decolonized decision-making tools and sustainable enterprises are viable opportunities that partially address these challenges and could deliver tangible socio-economic and cultural benefits to local Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people.     

Ecosystem Services in a Transitional Forest Landscape: Shifting Trajectories in Southeast Michigan,USA

North American forests provide multiple ecosystem services, such as carbon storage, biodiversity, and recreation. These services are often coordinated through multifunctional management, whereby various users and owners contribute to collective agendas. Forests in exurban “transition” zones are crucial components in the sustainability of broader metropolitan landscapes, but represent a particularly understudied confluence of ecosystem services and multifunctional management. In this paper, we develop a place-based approach to assess ecosystem services in transitional forests (those between rural and urban). We demonstrate how trajectories of forest composition are linked with shifting ecosystem services that both shape and are shaped by management activities. Sited in Stinchfield Woods, a forest in southeast Michigan, this study draws on a household survey, interviews, ecological data, and archival information. Given variations in priorities over time and among different users, we suggest that coordinated, adaptive management may improve provisioning of ecosystem services in ways that benefit multiple users.     

Developing Governance Principles for Public Natural Resources

Wildlife governance principles (WGPs) identify desirable governance characteristics for wildlife conservation in the United States (US). The types of institutional, ecological, and socio-cultural challenges that WGPs are designed to address also affect governance of public natural resources other than wildlife and in places other than the US. This raises the possibility that a similar set of governance principles might help natural resource professionals working in other resource contexts address the particular challenges they face. We describe the process by which we developed WGPs and offer seven practically oriented questions to help natural resource professionals ascertain whether a similar set of principles could improve governance in their context. In some contexts, minor modification of WGPs might be appropriate; in others, the process by which we developed WGPs could serve as a blueprint for formulating appropriate principles.     

Mapping the Stakeholders: Using Social Network Analysis to Increase the Legitimacy and Transparency of Participatory Scenario Planning

Participatory scenario planning (PSP) processes rely on accurate stakeholder identification to develop a key set of critical uncertainties. While many stakeholder analysis methods are able to identify stakeholders and describe their relationships, we found these efforts to have limited use in the fast-moving and in-depth approach of PSP research. We find that social network analysis (SNA) is an efficient, objective, and transparent approach to stakeholder identification in highly contested natural resource management issues. We present a case study of our research on Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula to describe how SNA’s ability to contextualize the relations between actors can benefit participatory research.     

Is Larger Scale Better? Evidence from Rice Farming in Jianghan Plain

Small-scale household agricultural production has been in conflict with China’s agricultural modernization. In the context of vigorously promoting rural land circulation and moderate scale management nationwide, research on the relationship between farm size and scale efficiency has become increasingly important. In this paper, we use the “DEA-OLS” two stage method to analyze data from 368 surveys of rice farming households in the Jianghan Plain. The scale efficiency of rice farming was calculated, and the relationship between farm size and scale efficiency investigated. The results indicate that (1) the rice farm size is generally small in Jianghan Plain, with an average of 0.77 ha. The average scale efficiency is 0.88, and it is the main factor limiting an increase in comprehensive technical efficiency. Moreover, 88.32% of households are in the stage of increasing returns to scale. (2) There is a stable inverted “U” type relationship between rice farm size and scale efficiency. Considering characteristics of the householder, the household and land quality, the maximum scale efficiency corresponds to a household with 5 ha of rice farm. (3) Among householder characteristics, age has a significant negative influence on scale efficiency, and scale efficiency is lower for a household whose householder is engaged in non-farm work than for one whose householder is devoted to farming. As for land quality, there was a significant positive effect of irrigation on scale efficiency. Among family characteristics, the application of a machine during the seeding process increased scale efficiency by 3.07%. Therefore, we suggest that local government should actively promote rural land circulation, implement a staged-scale management subsidy, and other forms of support for the purchase of agricultural machinery and technical popularization. Increased investment in irrigation improvements and mechanical facilities and encouragement of farmers to enlarge their farm size could improve scale efficiency and farming profit and lead to the development of moderate scale management.     

2016年汛期中国降水极端特征及与1998年对比

本文利用国家气象信息中心提供的1961—2016年全国2341个气象观测站日和小时降水量资料,分析了2016年中国汛期降水的极端特征,并与1998年进行比较。主要结论如下：2016年汛期全国平均降水量为1961年以来历史同期最多,共有140站汛期降水量突破1961年以来历史同期极大值,有112站出现历史次极大值,比1998年分别偏多54和47站。1998年降水极值主要出现在东北和长江中上游地区,2016年主要出现在华东地区,而且范围更加集中。共出现6972站次暴雨,其中大暴雨1251站次,为1961年以来最多。44次大范围暴雨过程持续时间达90 d,总体呈现“中间强、前后弱”的特征。有417站出现日降水量极端事件,其中88站突破历史纪录,创1961年以来新高;最大小时降水量共有113站突破历史极值,比1998年偏多29站。从空间分布来看,日降水量极端事件2016年主要位于华东和华北地区,1998年集中在中部地区;破纪录小时降水2016年主要在西部地区,而1998年东部地区更为突出。