Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.     

实施流域生态管理的长江中下游湿地保护探讨

长江中下游地区湿地分布广泛且类型多样,是我国淡水湖泊分布最集中和最具有代表性的地区。为了从根本上解决长江中下游湿地利用面临的问题,实现湿地资源的可持续利用,保护湿地环境,解决区内上、下游用水的供需矛盾,实现水资源的优化配置,调动区域湿地保护的积极性和主动性,有必要遵循湿地流域分布规律,应用流域生态学最新理论与实践成果,进行流域生态管理。一方面,要从流域角度处理好几大江湖关系、蓄泄关系、湖垸关系和山湖(河)关系等;另一方面,在流域内建立统一协调机制,对流域湿地进行保护与合理利用、合理布局和统一规划;同时在保护的前提下,科学合理地利用长江中下游湿地资源,开拓新的生产力。     

国内外旅游解说研究进展综述

本文对国外旅游解说系统研究从旅游解说的起源、原理、内涵、框架、功能、受众类型、解说方式、解说规划等方面进行了全面的总结,综合了国内旅游研究的研究现状与趋势。寻找出国内解说研究与国外解说研究的差距,借此推动国内的旅游解说系统研究,从而更好地为旅游规划、旅游业的可持续发展和游客管理服务。     

An approximate projection of availability of the fresh groundwater resources in the South West district of NCT Delhi, India: a case study

The future availability and sustainability of fresh groundwater resources in the South West district of the national capital territory (NCT) Delhi, India, have been projected. Due to a rapid decline in groundwater level and quality, the district has been required by the Government of India to regulate development of groundwater resources. Shallow groundwater is mostly saline and water resources in the area are limited. The methodology applied here involves microzonation of the district in terms of thickness of fresh groundwater and then quantification of present and future availability of freshwater in different freshwater zones, including tentative timescales. The calculation method has been aided by data on historic trends in water level at representative groundwater monitoring stations, located either in fresh groundwater zones or near to them. It is estimated that the presently available 481 million m³ of resources will be reduced to 374 million m³ by year 2007 and to 303 million m³ by the year 2012, and by the year 2022 the district will have only 176 million m³ of available fresh groundwater resources.     

Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.     

Characteristics, threats and opportunities of landfill scavenging: The case of Gaborone-Botswana

In Gaborone, as in other large cities in the developing world, individuals try to make a living by engaging in novel occupations such as landfill scavenging. This paper reports on a research conducted in the Gaborone landfill, the largest in Botswana. The study content-analyzed available literature from other countries. It also relied mainly on direct field observations. The discussions on and answers to closed and interview schedules by stakeholders, affected- and- interested – persons, provided the information on the threats and opportunities related to the landfill site and its informal management activities. This on-going case study lends credence to the potential of scavenging in sustaining livelihoods among those who cannot secure employment in the formal urban market. Scavenging tends to be useful although it may hazardous to the informal entrepreneurs. Taking all the threats into consideration, the decommissioning and closure of the landfill seems inevitable, in spite of the apparent short-term livelihood opportunities it provides to the informal sector.     

Impact of Flood Disasters on Taiwan in the Last Quarter Century

The increasing natural disasters, especially floods during the last quarter century, are raising the economic losses in Taiwan. The most severe hazard in Taiwan is flooding induced by typhoons and storms in summer and autumn. By comparing the rivers around the world, the ones in Taiwan have the steepest slopes, the largest discharge per unit drainage area, and the shortest time of concentrations. Rapid urbanization without proper land uses managements usually worsen the flood problems. Consequently, flood hazards mitigation has become the most essential task for Taiwan to deal with. Although the government keeps improving flood defense structures, the flood damage grows continuously. In this article, possible flood mitigation strategies are identified for coping with complex environmental and social decisions with flood risk involved.     

A new approach for the development and management of brackish karst springs

A new approach to the method of artificial upraising of the water outlet point, for management and development of brackish karst springs, uses the MODKARST model. Brackish karst springs simulation can be used to estimate the necessary upraising of the spring elevation, so that sea-water intrusion is blocked. The consequent freshwater loss to the sea, due to this upraising, can also be estimated. The method has been applied to the periodically brackish karst Almiros spring at Heraklion of Crete, Greece. The spring simulation showed that the sea-water intrusion could be prevented through an artificial upraising of the water-outlet point, realized by the construction of a dam. The exact upraising has been estimated. Freshwater loss to the sea because of this upraising has also been estimated. The model could also be used as a tool for the management of the spring. For example, it was used to assess management options for the spring during the depletion period of the year 1994. The best scenario for the development of the spring during this period has been estimated.     

The 1786 earthquake-triggered landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood on the Dadu River, southwestern China — Reply

A short reply to discussion by Chanson.     

Rights or Containment? The politics of Aboriginal cultural heritage in Victoria

Aboriginal cultural heritage protection, and the legislative regimes that underpin it, constitute important mechanisms for Aboriginal people to assert their rights and responsibilities. This is especially so in Victoria, where legislation vests wide-ranging powers and control of cultural heritage with Aboriginal communities. However, the politics of cultural heritage, including its institutionalisation as a scientific body of knowledge within the state, can also result in a powerful limiting of Aboriginal rights and responsibilities. This paper examines the politics of cultural heritage through a case study of a small forest in north-west Victoria. Here, a dispute about logging has pivoted around differing conceptualisations of Aboriginal cultural heritage values and their management. Cultural heritage, in this case, is both a powerful tool for the assertion of Aboriginal rights and interests, but simultaneously a set of boundaries within which the state operates to limit and manage the challenge those assertions pose. The paper will argue that Aboriginal cultural heritage is a politically contested and shifting domain structured around Aboriginal law and politics, Australian statute and the legacy of colonial history.