Spatial rainfall model using a pattern classifier for estimating missing daily rainfall data

Missing data in daily rainfall records are very common in water engineering practice. However, they must be replaced by proper estimates to be reliably used in hydrologic models. Presented herein is an effort to develop a new spatial daily rainfall model that is specifically intended to fill in gaps in a daily rainfall dataset. The proposed model is different from a convectional daily rainfall generation scheme in that it takes advantage of concurrent measurements at the nearby sites to increase the accuracy of estimation. The model is based on a two-step approach to handle the occurrence and the amount of daily rainfalls separately. This study tested four neural network classifiers for a rainfall occurrence processor, and two regression techniques for a rainfall amount processor. The test results revealed that a probabilistic neural network approach is preferred for determining the occurrence of daily rainfalls, and a stepwise regression with a log-transformation is recommended for estimating daily rainfall amounts.     

近2000年淮河流域地理环境的变化与洪灾——淮河中游的洪灾与洪泽湖的变化

近2000年来淮河流域的洪涝灾害十分频繁。作者认为淮河中游的洪涝灾害与洪泽湖的演变有非常密切的关系。洪泽湖本是人工筑堤蓄水而形成的。湖区水位的上升与湖底淤高,势必会引起淮河中游发展溯源加积和洪水位的上升。估计鲁台子-蚌埠河段平均每公里河长加积了约3400×10～4t泥沙,由此造成泄洪不畅,加剧了洪害。     

Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example

ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.     

The pattern characteristics of the tendency variations of earth resistivity and its relation to earthquakes

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Late Holocene flood magnitudes in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta resolved by a two-dimensional hydraulic modelling approach

Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one-dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two-dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set-up in HEC-RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 10³ floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high-resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo-DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non-exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m³/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management.     

Use of ERS-1 data for the extraction of flooded areas

The aim of this study, undertaken by Geoimage, was the setting up of a fast and precise location method of flooded areas over two sites in southern France. The use of satellite imagery seemed to be the appropriate tool for this study. Two types of flood had to be distinguished: (i) an oceanic flood, of long duration characteristic, and of low intensity on the Rhône Valley, (ii) a torrential flood, of short duration characteristic, but of high intensity, on the Var Valley. As we distributed of ERS-1 images over both sites, during the floods, we could test our methodology. A multitemporal approach using ERS-1 images in PRI mode, acquired before, during and after the flood, was set up. In the case of oceanic flood, the radar images characteristic answers, enabled us to extract and identify areas under water at each date of acquisition of the images. Therefore, if we distribute images at each step of the flood, its evolution can be precisely reconstituted (in terms of time and surface). In the case of torrential flood, it is more difficult to localize the flood with precision. This can be explained by the change of water surface, which has a large swell in this case. Radars are sensitive to these changes in the turbidity, an interaction occurs and thus the results were ‘turned off’. Nevertheless, simulation studies from other satellite data make possible the location of more or less strong hydrological risk accident areas. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using micro-catchment experiments for multi-local scale modelling of nature-based solutions

The Q-natural flood management project has co-developed with the Environment Agency 18 monitored micro-catchments (~1 km²) in Cumbria, UK installing calibrated flumes aimed at quantifying the potential shift in observed flows resulting from a range of nature-based-solutions installed by local organizations. The small-scale reduces the influence of variability characterizing larger catchments that would otherwise mask any such shifts, which we attempt to relate to a shift in model parameters. This paper demonstrates an approach to applying donor-parameter-shifts obtained from modelling two of the paired micro-catchments to a much larger scale, in order to understand the potential for improved distributed modelling of nature-based solutions in the form of additional tree-planting. The models include a rainfall-runoff model, Dynamic Topmodel, and a 2D hydrodynamic model, JFlow, permitting analysis of changes in hillslope processes and channel hydrodynamics resulting from a range of distributed measures designed to emulate natural hydrological processes that evaporate, store or infiltrate flows. We report on attempts to detect shift in hydrological response using one of the paired-micro-catchment moorland versus forestry sites in Lorton using Dynamic Topmodel. A donor-parameter-shift approach is used in a hypothetical experiment to represent new woodland in a much larger catchment, although testing all combinations of spatial planting strategies, responses to multiple-extremes, failure-modes and changes to synchronization becomes intractable to support good decision making. We argue that the problem can be re-framed to use donor-parameter-shifts at multi-local-scale catchments above communities known to be at risk, commensurate with most of the evidence of NbS impacts being effective at the small scale (ca. 10 km²). This might lead to more effective modelling to help catchment managers prioritize those communities-at-risk where there is more evidence that NbS might be effective.     

Elevation adjustments of paired natural levees during flooding of the Saskatchewan River

Natural levees control the exchange of water between an alluvial channel and its floodplain, but little is known about the spatial distribution and evolution of levee heights. The summer 2005 flood of the Saskatchewan River (Cumberland Marshes, east‐central Saskatchewan) inundated large areas of floodplain for up to seven weeks, forming prominent new deposits on natural levees along main‐stem channels. Measurements of flood‐deposit thickness and crest heights of 61 levee pairs show that the thickest deposits occur on the lower pre‐flood levee in 80% of the sites, though no clear relationship exists between deposit thickness and magnitude of height difference. Only 16% of the pairs displayed thicker deposits on the higher levee, half of which occurred at sites where relatively clear floodbasin waters re‐entered turbid channels during general flooding. Difference in crest elevation (ΔE) between paired levees is approximately log‐normally distributed, both before and after the flood, though with different mean values. Supplemental observations from tank experiments indicate that during near‐bankfull flows, temporally and spatially variable deposition and erosion occur on levees due to backwater effects associated with nearby channel bars and irregular rises of the channel bed forced by channel extension. During floods, preferential deposition in lows tends to even out crest heights. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE 1998 FLOOD OF THE YANGTZE RIVER

1INTRODUCTIONDuringthefloodseasonof1998,anothercatastrophicfloodoccurredinthemiddleandlowerYangtzeRiverfollowingthecatastrophicfloodin1954.Ascomparedwiththe54flood,the1998floodwascharacterizedbythefactsthatthedurationofthehighwaterstagewasmuchlonger,thefloodcontrolwasmuchmoredifficult,andthetotalmanpowerandmaterialresourcesexpelldedintilefloodfightingweremuchmoreenormous.TOsummarizetheexperienceandlessonsfromthefloodissignificanttotilehydraulicengineeringandfloodcontroloftheYangtzeRiver.…     

Geochemical Changes in Metal and Nutrient Loading at Orplands Farm Managed Retreat Site, Essex, UK (April 1995–1997)

Salt marshes have recently been considered to be a major part of the coastal system and have played a key role in the development of the UK coastal management strategy. Managed Retreat (MR) is a process aimed to restore salt marshes by realignment of the seawalls allowing tidal inundation of low value agricultural land. The resultant marshes are expected to function both as an integral part of the flood defence system and as an ecological conservation area. We report on the effects of salt marsh restoration on metal and nutrient loading of the sediment at the Orplands Farm MR site, Essex, UK. Surficial grab and sediment cores were collected from the two fields that comprise the site. The heavy metals, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, Ni and Zn were analysed to determine changes in anthropogenic inputs to sediments. The major ions, Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Mn and Na were also monitored to identify changes in sediment geochemistry. Analysis of the cored sediments after inundation for Na and Sr demonstrated that penetration of estuarine water had, within 2 yr of exposure, reached an average depth of 20 cm. The study observed that input of heavy metals had occurred to the sediments with the most significant being that of Pb, however increases were also observed for Cr and Cu. However, concentrations of Cd in the MR sediments decreased from 1995 to 1997. For the major metals within both fields it was found that the dominant changes were those of enrichment of marine associated metals, Ca, K, Mg and Na via inputs from tidal inundation. The concentration of Ca in the sediments was further enriched by the deposition of carbonates to the sediments. One field demonstrated a significant loss of Fe from sediments which corresponded to changes in redox potential of the sediments. Differences observed in geochemical profiles between the two fields of the site were attributed to differences in land use prior to flooding.