差分法判别地倾斜异常的实用性研究

本文以新疆十多年来定点形变连续观测资料为基础,对观测数据差分值变化预报地震进行了实用性研究。给出了差分异常震例和计算统计分析结果,认为一阶差分法是一种比较实用而有前途的地震预报方法。     

黄河口凹陷古近纪构造坡折带对沉积体系的控制

坡折带类型、分布对沉积体系具有明显控制作用。通过对黄河口凹陷古近系层序构成样式和沉积充填研究,结果表明:①在盆地幕式断陷活动和同沉积断裂差异活动等构造作用下,形成了断裂坡折和挠曲坡折2种类型的构造坡折带。断裂坡折可以进一步分为断阶坡折、帚状坡折和断裂转换带坡折,不同类型构造坡折带对沉积体系具有明显控制作用。②断阶坡折控制了陡坡带扇三角洲、缓坡带辫状河三角洲沉积体系的形成和分布;帚状坡折控制了沉积体系入湖方向和沉积厚度;断裂调节带控制了辫状河三角洲、湖底扇沉积体系的形成和分布;挠曲坡折控制了辫状河三角洲沉积体系的分布。③构造坡折控制不同类型的圈闭组合,断阶坡折带发育断块型圈闭、岩性上顷尖灭圈闭;帚状坡折带发育掀斜断块圈闭;断裂转换带发育岩性上倾尖灭圈闭、断鼻-岩性圈闭;挠曲坡折带发育地层超覆圈闭。不同类型坡折带对沉积体系的控制为下一步中深层油气勘探指明方向。     

ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN THE FIRST RAINING SEASON (APRIL-JUNE) IN SOUTHERN CHINA AND SST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS IN CHINA

Precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China were analyzed, with the suggestion that there are obvious interannual variation of peak values. In the raining season, the general tendency of precipitation is not obvious and the anomalous oscillation is multi-scale. Corresponding to years of more or less precipitation in the raining season, there are sharply opposite distribution across the nation in the simultaneous periods. In addition, by studying the distribution of correlation between anomalous precipitation in southern China in the first raining season and SSTA over offshore waters of China in the preceding period (June ~ August of the previous year), a sensitive zone of waters has been found that has steady effect on the precipitation of southern China in the season. Discussions are also made of the sensitive period, its simultaneous SSTA and subsequent anomalous circulation field in relation to precipitation anomalies and simultaneous circulation field in the first raining season of southern China. In the last part of the work, relationship between the SSTA in the sensitive zone and global SSTA is analyzed. A possible mechanism by which SSTA in offshore Chinese waters affects the precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China is put forward.     

Inversion and III-Posed Problem Solutions in Atmospheric Remote Sensing

With the swift advances in earth observation, satellite remote sensing and application of atmospheric radiation theory have been developed in the past decades, atmospheric sensing inversion with its algorithms is getting more and more importance. It is known that since a remote sensing equation falls into an integral equation of the first kind, thus leading to the fact that it is ill-posed and particularly the solution is unsteady, tremendous difficulties arise from the retrieval. This paper will present a simple review on the inversion techniques with some necessary remarks, before in-troducing the successful efforts with respect to such equations and the encouraging solutions achieved in recent dec-ades by researchers of the world.     

台风涡旋系统的波动性质及其数值模拟

本文使用柱坐标系下的正压浅水方程组以及斜压扰动方程组,分析得出台风涡旋系统中的涡旋Rossby波划分为两种类型。由于切向基本气流的二阶径向水平切变或者基本气流的垂直涡度在径向方向的变化(β*因子)所导致的涡旋Rossby波称之为第一类涡旋Rossby波(正压涡旋Rossby波),它产生的根本原因是β*因子的作用。这种第一类涡旋Rossby波相对于切向基本气流是单向传播的,其传播方向则与β*因子的正负符号有关。当基本流场垂直涡度-ζz沿着径向r方向增大时,第一类涡旋Rossby波是沿着切向圆周方向逆时针方向传播的;反之则是沿着切向圆周方向顺时针方向传播。如果考虑切向基流的二次垂直切变时,可以得到台风涡旋系统中第二类涡旋Rossby波(斜压涡旋Rossby波)的相速度表达式,第二类涡旋Rossby波产生的物理根源是切向基本流场风速的二次垂直切变或者基本流场径向r方向的平均涡度在空间z方向上的不均匀性(亦即β**因子)。第二类涡旋Rossby波相对于切向基本气流也是单向传播的,当-ζr沿着空间z方向上增大时,第二类涡旋Rossby波就是相对于基本气流-V0是顺时针方向传播的;反之则是相对于基本气流逆时针方向传播。在基本流场的风速-V存在二次径向水平切变或者垂直切变时,台风中的波动可能是混合的涡旋Rossby波——重力波;而当基本流场的风速-V仅仅存在线性切变,不存在二次切变时,此时根本不存在涡旋Rossby波,台风系统中的波动则仅仅是重力惯性波。最后,采用WRF模式对“云娜”台风进行了数值模拟,验证了上述结论。     

积温对比法在鸭梨始花期预报中的应用

利用2012—2018年鸭梨花芽发育实景观测照片,精准判定每个鸭梨花芽发育物候期节点发生时间,以此为依据统计鸭梨花芽每个发育物候期的气象要素数据,以物候期为单位分析气象影响因子对花芽发育过程的影响。研究表明:温度在鸭梨花芽发育各阶段起主导作用,筛选出鸭梨花芽萌发到始花、开绽到始花、露蕾到始花3个时段日平均气温≥0℃活动积温和≥3℃有效积温,作为制作鸭梨始花期预报的积温指标计算鸭梨开花日期,得到"积温对比预报法";经2016—2018年应用检验:预报时效10～12d时预报结果与鸭梨开花实况误差在1～2d以内,预报时效7d时预报结果与鸭梨开花实况完全吻合。本研究克服了传统植物花期预报研究因花前物候资料匮乏、不能进行花前发育期分析的缺陷,并把"中长期天气预报产品"引入了花期预报方法的使用,为植物花期预报研究方法提供了新思路。     

西安地裂缝近期超常活动因素及其量化分析

西安地裂缝近期超常活动，主要是长期过量抽汲深层承压水，引发地裂缝两侧地面不均匀沉降叠加到地裂缝正常活动过程中造成的。不均匀沉降量由地裂缝两侧土体松动程度不同造成的裂隙释水压密差异与两侧粘性土层厚度不同造成的孔隙释水压密差异共同构成。研究计算表明，地裂缝现今垂直活动量中，土体松动程度不同造成的裂隙释水压密量占有较大比例，而粘性土层厚度不同造成的孔隙释水压密差异所占有比例相对较小。     

2000年上半年全球地震活动

2000年上半年全球共发生MW≥6．5地震14次。其中MW≥7．0地震7次；浅源地震10次；中源地震3次；深源地震1次。浅源大地震发生的区域集中于印度尼西亚和南印度洋地区。6月份发生的地震所释放的地震矩占上半年全球所有地震释放的地震矩的一大半。     

湖北异常初雪日的成因分析及预测

统计湖北省76站1961/1962—2012/2013共52年大范围初雪偏早/偏晚年份,揭示初雪日异常早/晚年同期环流特征,初雪偏晚当年11月至次年2月海温、高度场及低层风场的典型分布表现为:中高纬的西北太平洋海温及新西兰东侧南太平洋海温异常偏高,有利于乌拉尔山脊减弱、贝加尔湖低压及阿留申地区低压减弱,东亚大槽偏强同时孟加拉湾槽偏弱,对应500 hPa高度距平场上欧亚大陆自北至南呈"—+—"的波列分布,中国大陆地区低层风场被北风距平控制;反之,初雪偏早。2013/2014年关键区海温及环流分布符合典型的初雪偏晚对应特征。利用1961—1992年11月关键区海温首次建立湖北初雪日预测模型,准确预测2013年冬季初雪偏晚,同时针对1993—2012年初雪早晚的回报检验准确率达75%,为预测湖北初雪发生的早晚提供了新方法。     

Two-phase SPH modelling of waves caused by dam break over a movable bed

This paper describes the application of the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics（SPH） method for modeling two dimensional waves caused by dam break over a movable bed in two dimensions.The two phase SPH method is developed to solve the Navier-Stokes equations.Both fluid and sediment phases are described by particles as weakly compressible fluids and the incompressibility is achieved by the equation of state.The sediment phase is modeled as a non-Newtonian fluid using three alternative approaches of artificial viscosity and Bingham Model.In this paper,the new formulations for two-phase flows are proposed.The numerical results obtained from the developed SPH model show acceptable accuracy with comparison to experimental data.