The timing behavior of magnetar Swift J1822.3—1606： timing noise or a decreasing period derivative？

The different timing results of the magnetar Swift J1822.3—1606 are analyzed and understood theoretically.It is noted that different timing solutions are caused not only by timing noise,but also because the period derivative is decreasing after the outburst.Both the decreasing period derivative and the large timing noise may originate from wind braking associated with the magnetar.Future timing of Swift J1822.3—1606 will help clarify whether or not its period derivative is decreasing with time.     

SN 2009ip and SN 2010mc as dual-shock Quark-Novae

In recent years a number of double-humped supernovae （SNe） have been discovered. This is a feature predicted by the dual-shock Quark-Nova （QN） model where an SN explosion is followed （a few days to a few weeks later） by a QN explo- sion. SN 2009ip and SN 2010mc are the best observed examples of double-humped SNe. Here, we show that the dual-shock QN model naturally explains their light curves including the late time emission, which we attribute to the interaction between the mixed SN and QN ejecta and the surrounding circumstellar matter. Our model applies to any star （O-stars, luminous blue variables, Wolf-Rayet stars, etc.） provided that the mass involved in the SN explosion is ~ 20 Mo which provides good conditions for forming a QN.     

Geochronological Records of Oil-Gas Accumulations in the Permian Reservoirs of the Northeastern Ordos Basin

Geochronology of oil-gas accumulation （OGA） is a challenging subject of petroleum geology in multi-cycle superimposed basins.By K-Ar dating of authigenic illite （AI） and fluid inclusion （FI） analysis combined with apatite fission track （AFT） thermal modeling,a case study of constraining the OGA times of the Permian reservoirs in northeast Ordos basin （NOB） has been conducted in this paper.AI dating of the Permian oil-gas-bearing sandstone core-samples shows a wide time domain of 178-108 Ma.The distribution of the AI ages presents 2-stage primary OGA processes in the Permian reservoirs,which developed in the time domains of 175-155 Ma and 145-115 Ma with 2-peak ages of 165 Ma and 130 Ma,respectively.The FI temperature peaks of the samples and their projected ages on the AFT thermal path not only present two groups with a low and a high peak temperatures in ranges of 90-78℃ and 125-118℃,respectively corresponding to 2-stage primary OGA processes of 162-153 Ma and 140-128 Ma in the Permian reservoirs,but also appear a medium temperature group with the peak of 98℃ in agreement with a secondary OGA process of c.～30 Ma in the Upper Permian reservoirs.The integrated analysis of the AI and FI ages and the tectono-thermal evolution reveals that the Permian reservoirs in the NOB experienced at least 2-stage primary OGA processes of 165-153 Ma and 140-128 Ma in agreement with the subsidence thermal process of the Mid-Early Jurassic and the tectono-thermal event of the Early Cretaceous.Then,the Upper Permian reservoirs further experienced at least 1-stage secondary OGA process of c.～30 Ma in coincidence with a critical tectonic conversion between the slow and the rapid uplift processes from the Late Cretaceous to Neogene.     

青海省苦海汞矿床形成条件及成因探讨

苦海汞矿床是位于东昆仑造山带南带东段上的大型含金汞矿床。围岩为一套滨海-浅海相富含碳质碳酸盐（石英砂岩）建造。矿体受地层和构造联合控制,一般产在褶皱的层间剥离裂隙、构造裂隙及节理中,或产于褶皱翼部的断裂破碎带内。矿床成矿流体以建造水和大气降水为主,并可能有岩浆热液的加入。成矿流体盐度（w(NaCl)）为1.90%～5.70%,密度为0.78～0.97 g/cm³;流体包裹体均一温度为118.8～291.6 ℃;成矿压力约43.24 MPa,成矿深度为4.56 km。研究表明,该区下二叠统含碳地层提供了主要的成矿物质,晚三叠世受构造造山作用及相应的岩浆侵入所驱动的热液流体活化了矿质,并迁移至褶皱带层间剥离裂隙等部位沉淀成矿。总体上,该矿床为一受构造和地层联合控制的中偏低温热液矿床,相当于造山型金矿系列的浅成矿床。     

吉兰泰盐湖卤水化学动态变化的灰色—马尔科夫过程预测分析

卤水中的化学成分因受多种因素影响,使其在时间序列上的变化波动强烈而规律难循。灰色—马尔科夫过程预测是预测事物在时间序列上发展趋势的一种良好有效的统计分析手段,它将灰色系统预测法和马尔科夫过程预测法有效结合,既弥补了两种方法各自的缺点,又能充分考虑数据给予的信息,可以大大提高随机波动较大数据序列的预测精度。本文用灰色—马尔科夫过程预测法对吉兰泰盐湖卤水中几种主要离子浓度的变化进行了趋势分析,分析结果发现几种离子浓度的变化均有一定的规律性,而且这些离子在预测数据的变化规律同原始实测数据变化规律有很好的一致性。     

序列衰减与余震激发研究进展及应用成果

着重于序列衰减与余震激发,系统介绍了修改的大森公式、ETAS模型及BASS模型的最新理论研究进展及应用成果。修改的大森公式是迄今为止对序列衰减的最好描述,据此可对序列衰减特征进行定量表述。大森公式本质上是一种典型的现象统计模型,但由于其参数少、计算简单,并且确实能够反映序列衰减的总体特征,因而在实际中应用广泛。ETAS模型考虑了具有统计自相似特征的次级余震激发问题,次级余震激发强度与父地震强度有关,这在物理过程方面对大森公式进行了大大的拓展。由于考虑了次级余震的激发问题,ETAS模型不但在余震序列研究方面比修改的大森公式有了明显的进展,而且在诸如平静检测、余震群集剔除、背景地震活动评估、外因触发地震活动检测等方面也有诸多应用。BASS模型遵循修改的Bath定律,而ETAS模型遵循的是与父地震震级有关的相似率,这是BASS模型与ETAS模型的最大区别,因而相对ETAS模型而言,BASS模型是一种完全自相似的理想化模型,但目前基于BASS模型的应用研究尚不多见     

赤峰--辽蒙交界地区地震活动性及平均波速比分析

分析了赤峰地区地质构造特征、地球动力学环境、历史中强地震活动,表明该区域具备发生中强地震的构造条件;2008年以来的地震活动表明,辽蒙交界地区存在发生5级以上中强震的危险性,该地区的波速比震前异常能够为该地区的地震中期预测提供一定的判定依据。     

SSI效应对粘弹性阻尼结构减震效果的影响分析

本文以一单跨7层框架结构为研究对象,对不同场地和地震波输入条件下的粘弹性阻尼结构进行了二维有限元时程分析,探讨了SSI（土-结构动力相互作用）效应对粘弹性阻尼结构减震效果的影响。分析结果表明：①在硬土和稍硬土地基条件下,SSI效应明显降低了结构的楼层位移峰值,若在抗震设计中对客观存在的SSI效应加以考虑,设置较少数量的阻尼器（与刚性地基假定条件下确定的阻尼器数量相比）就能使结构的实际地震位移反应满足基于刚性地基假定的地震位移控制目标;②粘弹性阻尼结构的减震效果与场地条件、输入地震动特性密切相关;③与刚性地基相比,SSI效应使粘弹性阻尼结构的减震效果明显降低,且地基越软,降低幅度越大。因此,在实际的工程设计中,应当充分考虑SSI效应,对粘弹性阻尼结构的减震控制效果进行合理的评价,并针对不同的场地条件选用合适的阻尼器类型和性能参数,才有可能达到预期的减震控制效果。     

Estimation of regional evapotranspiration in alpine area and its response to land use change: A case study in Three-River Headwaters region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Three-River Headwaters(TRH) region involved in this paper refers to the source region of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River,the Huanghe(Yellow) River and the Lancang River in China.Taking the TRH region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a case,the annual evapotranspiration(ET) model developed by Zhang et al.(2001) was applied to evaluate mean annual ET in the alpine area,and the response of annual ET to land use change was analyzed.The plant-available water coefficient(w) of Zhang’s model was revised by using vegetation-temperature condition index(VTCI) before annual ET was calculated in alpine area.The future land use scenario,an input of ET model,was spatially simulated by using the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent(CLUE-S) to study the response of ET to land use change.Results show that the relative errors between the simulated ET and that calculated by using water balance equation were 3.81% and the index of agreement was 0.69.This indicates that Zhang’s ET model based on revised plant-available water coefficient is a scientific and practical tool to estimate the annual ET in the alpine area.The annual ET in 2000 in the study area was 221.2 mm,11.6 mm more than that in 1980.Average annual ET decreased from southeast to northwest,but the change of annual ET between 1980 and 2000 increased from southeast to northwest.As a vast and sparsely populated area,the population in the TRH region was extremely unbalanced and land use change was concentrated in very small regions.Thus,land use change had little effect on total annual ET in the study area but a great impact on its spatial distribution,and the effect of land use change on ET decreased with increasing precipitation.ET was most sensitive to the interconversion between forest and unused land,and was least sensitive to the interconversion between cropland and low-covered grassland.     

基于CMONOC建立和评估中国大陆地壳运动速度场模型

针对现有速度场模型采用数据少、现势性不强的问题,详细论述了速度场模型建立的数据获取与处理方法,利用中国大陆地壳运动监测网络中260个连续运行基准站2011~2015年的连续观测数据,采用GAMIT/GLOBK与GMT软件,获得高精度的定位及速度成果,并基于上述速度成果采用克里金插值法构建了中国大陆地壳运动速度场1°×1°格网模型。最后利用IERS公布的中国区域7个IGS站实测速度以及全国范围内均匀分布的陆态网络区域站实测速度,对模型内插结果进行检核,验证了模型的现势性、精确性和可靠性。