Modified Moving Particle Semi-implicit methods for the prediction of 2D wave impact pressure

As a gridless particle method, the MPS (Moving Particle Semi-implicit) method has proven useful in a wide variety of engineering applications including free-surface hydrodynamic flows. Despite its wide range of applicability, the MPS method suffers from some shortcomings such as non-conservation of momentum and spurious pressure fluctuation. By introducing new formulations for the pressure gradient and a new formulation of the source term of the Poisson Pressure Equation (PPE), and by allowing a slight compressibility, we have proposed modified MPS methods for the prediction of wave impact pressure on a coastal structure. The improved performance of the modified methods is shown through the simulation of numerous wave impact problems (including the impacts by a dam break flow, a flip-through and two cases of slightly-breaking waves) in comparison with the experimental data.     

利用卫星云图资料制作热带气旋预报路径的一种算法

根据台风生成后在云场中移动的环境条件,引入一个环境作用于台风中心的热力梯度力方向,用该热力梯度力方向与当前台风的移动方向相结合,研究台风移动过程的变化规律,寻找一种简易可行的台风路径预报方法．经过多年实践,本文揭示出台风中心未来沿着当前移动方向与环境作用于台风中心的热力方向合成移动的基本规律：当前台风中心移向与前方晴空区中轴线相交时,台风沿着当前移向前进到与阻挡轴线相交点相距4个纬距的位置时便发生偏转,逐渐与阻挡轴线走向趋于一致;若当前台风中心距相交点的距离小于或等于4个纬距时,则从当前位置发生偏转．文中利用以上规律研制出台风移向变化方程和移动轨迹方程．     

Evidence for the Retrograde Accretion onto Supermassive Black Holestwo

Recently, Sloan Digital Sky Survey successfully carried out the reverberation mapping of a sky area, aiming to test the R ? L relation that has been already widely used. Here, R is the responsivity-weighted radius of the broad line region, and L is the optical luminosity at 5100 Å. Two results have been obtained from the data in the first year: (1) The time lags of AGNs (Active Galactic Nuclei) with a high accretion rate are much shorter than that estimated from the R ? L relation, which confirmed the results of reverberation mapping observations made by the Lijiang 2.4 meter telescope. (2) Some AGNs with a lower accretion rate also have very short time lags. The shortening of the time lags of the AGNs with a low accretion rate is caused by the retrograde accretion of black holes. This result has verified from observations the theoretical prediction made by Wang et al. (2014). The discovery of the black holes with a retrograde accretion has important significance, it indicates that the cosmological evolution of the black holes in quasars is implemented via the inherently random accretion.     

Simulation Study on High Energy Cosmic Electron Detection by Shower Image

Many projects have recently been carried out and proposed for observing high energy electrons since it is realized that cosmic ray electrons are very important when study-ing the dark matter particles and the acceleration mechanism of cosmic rays. An imaging calorimeter,BETS (Balloon-borne Electron Telescope with Scintillator fiber),has been de-veloped for this purpose. Using pattern analysis of the shower development,the electrons can be selected from those primary cosmic ray proton events with flux heights one-tenth that of the electrons. The Monte-Carlo simulation is indispensable for the instrument design,the sig-nal trigger and the data analysis. We present different shower simulation codes and compare the simulation results with the beam test and the flight data of BETS. We conclude that the code FLUKA2002 gives the most consistent results with the experimental data.     

基于CSST多色测光的时序测光精度分析

中国巡天空间望远镜(Chinese Survey Space Telescope, CSST)是中国的首个大型空间光学望远镜, 将对包括系外行星探测在内的诸多科学目标开展研究, 有望取得前沿科学进展. 时序测光精度是CSST重要的性能指标, 受到物理噪声和仪器噪声的影响, 需要通过数值模拟对其分析和评估. 模拟基于目前公布的CSST主要技术参数, 建立了时序的恒星信号和噪声模型, 以CSST的i波段为例, 分析凝视观测模式下的测光精度. 通过数值仿真, 展示了孔径测光中各项噪声的贡献, 特别是由指向抖动和像素响应不均匀性导致的抖动噪声. 模拟结果还给出了测光孔径的推荐范围. 为了获得更高的信噪比, 可以减小仪器抖动振幅和像素不均匀性, 或者采用参考星较差测光的方式. 结果为CSST后续的时序测光精度与不同指标参数的相关性分析、系外行星探测能力评估以及测光数据处理提供了模拟数据的支撑.     

基于扇形子镜的12m光学红外望远镜拼接共相误差仿真分析

为满足国内对应用大型通用光学望远镜在光学红外波段进行天文观测的需求, 中国计划建设一架12 m大口径光学红外望远镜(12-meter large aperture optical-infrared telescope, LOT). LOT对于中国天文界具有极其重要的意义, 将会在近红外波段实现共相. LOT的主镜将采用子镜拼接的方案, 由72块扇形子镜拼接而成, 并且中央部分有一块直径4.5m的圆形镜. 分析了采用扇形子镜拼接方案下LOT的共相误差, 提供了详细的共相误差理论推导过程, 并对包括3种子镜面外误差在内的误差源进行深入的单独模拟和综合模拟. 在共相波长为1μm的条件下, 当服从正态分布的倾斜误差的均方根值小于0.016^\prime\prime或服从正态分布的活塞误差的均方根值小于42.5nm时, LOT的斯特列尔比大于0.8. 仿真结果对于采用共相拼接镜面主动光学的主镜在LOT中的应用具有重要意义.     

基于历史TLE的空间目标轨道预报误差演化规律研究

北美防空司令部(North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD)发布的双行根数(Two Line Element, TLE)是广大航天工作者最常用的轨道根数,与其对应的轨道模型是SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4)解析模型.由于TLE中并没有包含相应的轨道精度信息,编目轨道的应用范围受到很大的限制.基于Space-Track网站发布的历史TLE数据和配套的SGP4/SDP4动力学模型,采用定轨标预报的方法统计并生成了大量目标轨道的预报误差,通过对预报轨道的时间区间划分给出了每个目标的预报误差随预报时间变化的拟合系数,并进一步对不同类型轨道预报误差的演化规律和特征进行了分类讨论,给出了4种轨道类型目标的轨道预报误差随时间演化的平均解析模型,为拓展双行根数的应用提供有价值的参考.     

双偏振雷达差分传播相移的五种滤波方法对比分析

为了对双线偏振雷达的差分传播相移ΦDP进行滤波降噪处理,提高双线偏振雷达识别粒子、估测降水的能力。通过对C波段双线偏振雷达差分传播相移分别采用滑动平均、中值滤波、FIR滤波、卡尔曼滤波和小波分析5种不同方法地介绍,利用中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室移动式C波段双线偏振雷达(POLC)2013年外场试验观测资料,对比分析了经5种方法处理后的差分传播相移ΦDP径向数据,及其分别在降水估测中应用的效果。结果表明:采用FIR滤波方法、卡尔曼滤波方法和小波分析方法对ΦDP径向数据进行处理的效果比传统的滑动平均和中值滤波方法好;其中小波分析处理的ΦDP径向数据波动最小,再经过变距离法拟合的KDP数据的负值能够得到最有效地抑制,最后应用到R(KDP)降水估测中的精度最高。     

Comparing spatially varying coefficient models: a case study examining violent crime rates and their relationships to alcohol outlets and illegal drug arrests

In this paper, we compare and contrast a Bayesian spatially varying coefficient process (SVCP) model with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model for the estimation of the potentially spatially varying regression effects of alcohol outlets and illegal drug activity on violent crime in Houston, Texas. In addition, we focus on the inherent coefficient shrinkage properties of the Bayesian SVCP model as a way to address increased coefficient variance that follows from collinearity in GWR models. We outline the advantages of the Bayesian model in terms of reducing inflated coefficient variance, enhanced model flexibility, and more formal measuring of model uncertainty for prediction. We find spatially varying effects for alcohol outlets and drug violations, but the amount of variation depends on the type of model used. For the Bayesian model, this variation is controllable through the amount of prior influence placed on the variance of the coefficients. For example, the spatial pattern of coefficients is similar for the GWR and Bayesian models when a relatively large prior variance is used in the Bayesian model.      

浅议地下室渗漏及预防措施

本文从地下室渗漏的理论分析入手,提出解决渗漏的关键在于工程施工阶段的合理组织和有效预防措施,结合某地下室的实践经验,总结了相应的一些预防措施