International trade undermines national emission reduction targets: New evidence from air pollution

Many developed countries in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol have been able to report decreasing emissions, and some have officially fulfilled their CO₂ reduction commitments. This is in part because current reporting and regulatory regimes allow these countries to displace emissions intensive production offshore. Using a new highly detailed account of emissions embodied in international trade we investigate this phenomenon of emissions leakage. We independently confirm previous findings that adjusting for trade, developed countries emissions have increased, not decreased. We find that the sectors successfully holding or lowering their domestic emissions are often the same as those increasing their imports of embodied CO₂. We also find that the fastest growing flow paths of embodied CO₂ largely originate outside the Kyoto Annex B signatory nations. Finally, we find that historically the same phenomenon of emissions displacement has already occurred for air pollution, with the result that despite aggressive legislation in major emitters total global air pollution emissions have increased. If regulatory policies do not account for embodied imports, global emissions are likely to rise even if developed countries emitters enforce strong national emissions targets.     

Sea-Ice Concentration Multivariate Assimilation for the Canadian East Coast in a Coupled Sea Ice–Ocean Model

The present study focuses on the impact of ocean state (i.e., salinity and temperature) updates on the sea-ice analysis and short-term forecast in an assimilative sea ice–ocean coupled system. A relatively simple sea-ice assimilation scheme was applied to the sea ice–ocean coupled North Atlantic Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) system with a focus on the Canadian East Coast. In this assimilation scheme the ocean state was updated directly based on the correlations between the model's sea-ice concentration and the upper ocean salinity and temperature. These correlations were based on a limited time ensemble generated by applying random perturbations to the atmospheric forcing fields. High deviations in the sea-ice conditions were found along the ice edge, implying that the sea-ice edge position is sensitive to small atmospheric forcing variations. Assimilation runs with and without ocean state updates (i.e., sea-ice concentration nudging) were conducted and compared for the winter of 2002. Both continuous and intermittent assimilation schemes were examined. In a continuous sea-ice assimilation experiment, the ocean direct update is unnecessary. When the sea-ice updates are introduced intermittently the ocean state has to be altered to accommodate them, or they will be rapidly diminished by the model's dynamics. The correlations between sea-ice concentration and ocean salinity and temperature based on the first 15 days of January were used for corrections during the entire winter season when, in addition to thermodynamic processes, dynamic processes are responsible for, and even dominate, sea-ice evolution on the Labrador and Newfoundland shelves. This was an adequate choice as was demonstrated by the results of the study which showed that the experiments with ocean state adjustments generated more accurate short-term sea-ice forecasts.     

Insights from a Qualitative Study of Rural Communes: Physical and Social Dimensions of Place

Existing research on people–place dynamics often focuses on either physical environment or social dimensions, but many theoretical models posit that both factors are important. I argue that rural communes provide unique settings to explore both social and environmental aspects of place. Based on qualitative interview data with members of two communes, I address emotional connection to the land, changing social relationships over time, and the interplay of physical and social aspects of place. Results demonstrate how the connections to land and social ties are both prevalent. However, social interaction has decreased while commitment to sharing and protecting the physical environment has endured.     

Prior-knowledge-based spectral mixture analysis for impervious surface mapping

In this study, we developed a prior-knowledge-based spectral mixture analysis (PKSMA) to map impervious surfaces by using endmembers derived separately for high- and low-density urban regions. First, an urban area was categorized into high- and low-density urban areas, using a multi-step classification method. Next, in high-density urban areas that were assumed to have only vegetation and impervious surfaces (ISs), the vegetation–impervious model (V–I) was used in a spectral mixture analysis (SMA) with three endmembers: vegetation, high albedo, and low albedo. In low-density urban areas, the vegetation–impervious–soil model (V–I–S) was used in an SMA analysis with four endmembers: high albedo, low albedo, soil, and vegetation. The fraction of IS with high and low albedo in each pixel was combined to produce the final IS map. The root mean-square error (RMSE) of the IS map produced using PKSMA was about 11.0%, compared to 14.52% only using four-endmember SMA. Particularly in high-density urban areas, PKSMA (RMSE = 6.47%) showed better performance than four-endmember (15.91%). The results indicate that PKSMA can improve IS mapping compared to traditional SMA by using appropriately selected endmembers and is particularly strong in high-density urban areas.     

Project management of mapping projects in developing countries in Africa

Abstract

Most projects which involve planning of rural areas and towns in developing countries require maps, but many of these countries do not have sufficient large-scale mapping suitable for this purpose, or maps which are up-to-date. With environmental-friendly projects becoming highly desirable, up-to-date and accurate maps are vital. As most large scale mapping projects require technical assistance, this paper discusses aid agreements with donor countries. These opportunities could be of benefit to private entrepreneurs. This paper also examines the project management approach for introducing mapping projects to developing countries. It makes special reference to a large mapping project in Zimbabwe in which the author was personally involved.     

How to improve dating quality and reduce noise in tree-ring based debris-flow reconstructions

Tree rings have been used to reconstruct the occurrence of debris flows and other mass movements. Identification of past activity was typically based on the presence of growth anomalies in trees, with a focus on scars, stem tilting, trunk burial or apex decapitation. Clear guidelines have been missing so far and the dating of events has only rarely been based on thresholds so as to distinguish signal from noise. In a similar way, the spatial distribution of affected trees has not normally been considered in mass movement reconstructions, and was at best used as a subjective exclusion factor. This study therefore aims at improving dating quality of and reducing noise in debris-flow time series. Based on a dataset of 803 increment cores (385 trees) affected by debris flows, we reconstruct event histories using (i) a classical experts' approach, (ii) a weighted index (W_it) of responding trees as well as (iii) Moran's I and Getis–Ord Local Gi indices. We identify similarities and differences in results and then investigate subsets of the tree-ring sample to define ideal sampling positions on debris-flow cones and guidelines for sample depth.     

Bridging the Qualitative–Quantitative Divide in Transport Geography∗

Recent viewpoints concerning the state of research in transport geography have touched on the issue of insularity and the need to bridge the divide between the largely spatial–analytical or quantitative research in transport geography and the critical or qualitative research prevalent in urban, economic, and most other subfields of human geography. Transport geography has been criticized by some for being a quiet corner of our discipline that has lost its centrality largely because it remains within the analytical framework of the 1960s. This article explores these sentiments by reexamining recent transport-oriented research in highly cited geography journals to assess the degree to which the qualitative–quantitative divide exists within transport geography and between transport and other subfield in human geography, as well as to explore issues of productivity and centrality of transport-oriented research in geography. Results indicate that geographical research involving transport topics is much more prevalent and reflects a wider range of epistemological and methodological approaches than is frequently assumed. Nevertheless, there is still a considerable divide between “mainstream” transport geography and other human geographical research that necessitates much more interaction between transport and other subfields and greater incorporation of alternative research approaches within the mainstream of transport geography. To that end, we propose a preliminary critical transport geography research agenda that is open to a variety of methodological approaches, including quantitative analysis.     

Woodlands and Agrobiodiversity in Irrigation Landscapes Amidst Global Change: Bolivia, 1990–2002

The global shift to small- and medium-scale irrigation is potentially compatible with high-agrobiodiversity production. A case study of the Cochabamba region in central Bolivia between 1990 and 2002 is designed to examine new interactions of irrigation with agrobiodiversity through change and continuity of landscape structures and functions. Irrigation change contributed to increased commercial potato and peach farming. Still persistent interactions of canal woodland habitat (landscape matrix including uncultivated or “wild” agrobiodiversity) with patches of cultivated agrobiodiversity helped ensure nutrient transfer and likelihood of gene flow. Farmers' field-level responses continued to include agrobiodiversity, especially multiple farmer varieties (FVs) of Andean maize. Capacities of social–ecological resilience in the period from 1990 to 2002 are estimated to have been moderate in anthropogenic canal woodlands (> 95 percent continued cover, albeit with reduced connectivity) and cultivated agrobiodiversity (viable with local loss of Andean potato FVs) and moderate-high in wild agrobiodiversity (viable with reduced capacity due to modified weed management). Indigenous “ethnodevelopment” applied to Andean community irrigation contributed positively to social–ecological resilience, albeit with significant limitations. Findings recommend that global change policies build emphasis on the interactions of water resource and agrobiodiversity management.     

Geospatial Analysis of Space–Time Patterning of ENSO Forced Daily Precipitation Distributions in the Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico experiences significant changes in the distribution of daily precipitation totals that are linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This research uses geospatial techniques to examine distribution patterns of ENSO-related precipitation. Kolmogorov–Smirnov test results comparing daily rainfall distributions for El Niño and La Niña are mapped at a 1° × 1° latitude/longitude resolution, and hotspot analysis using local Moran's I is performed to identify spatial clustering. Results indicate that ENSO-forced spatial and temporal variation in daily precipitation distributions influence large areas of the Gulf of Mexico region from August through January.