Estimation for partially observed Markov processes

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.     

On some problems of seismic crustal phase

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微震仪有线传输避雷研究

本文通过对雷电放电分析,研究解决微震仪有线传输的避雷问题,并介绍接收雷电信号控制传输线上电荷对地短路的“ＤＢＬ－１”避雷仪。     

基于GIS城市洪水淹没模拟分析

城市洪水淹没范围动态模拟分析是城市防洪规划与防治决策的一个重要基础工作。本文主要研究洪水从翻堤口出发在地理空间蔓延、扩散、动态行进及确定淹没范围的数字模拟方法。为此,根据数学形态学及测地圆概念,研究设计了洪水扩散范围的“膨胀”模拟算法和淹没范围搜索算法,用于查询淹没通块中从翻堤处到任一点之间的淹没路径和ｔ时刻洪水扩散范围。     

Geochronology and geochemistry of eclogites from the Mariánské Lázně Complex,Czech Republic: Implications for Variscan orogenesis

The Mariánské Lázn complex (MLC) is located in the Bohemian Massif along the north-western margin of the Teplá-Barrandian microplate and consists of metagabbro, amphibolite and eclogite, with subordinate amounts of serpentinite, felsic gneiss and calcsilicate rocks. The MLC is interpreted as a metaophiolite complex that marks the suture zone between the Saxothuringian rocks to the north-west and the Teplá-Barrandian microplate to the south-east. Sm-Nd geochronology of garnet-omphacite pairs from two eclogite samples yields ages of 377±7, and 367±4 Ma. Samples of eclogite and amphibolite do not define a whole rock Sm-Nd isochron, even though there is a large range in Sm/Nd ratio, implying that the suite of samples may not be cogenetic. Eclogites do not have correlated _Nd values and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios. Five of the eight eclogite samples have high _Nd values (+10.2 to +7.1) consistent with derivation from a MORB-like source, but variable ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7033 to 0.7059) which probably reflect hydrothermal seawater alteration. Three other eclogite samples have lower _Nd values (+ 5.4 to –0.8) and widely variable ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7033 to 0.7096). Such low _Nd values are inconsistent with derivation from a MORB, source and may reflect a subduction or oceanic island basalt component in their source. The MLC is an important petrotectonic element in the Bohemian Massif, providing evidence for Cambro-Ordovician formation of oceanic crust and interaction with seawater, Late Devonian (Frasnian-Famennian) high- and medium-pressure metamorphism related to closure of a Saxothuringian ocean basin, Early Carboniferous (Viséan) thrusting of the Teplá terrane over Saxothuringian rocks and Late Viséan extension.     

Magnetically-aided evolution of protoplanetary disks

We investigate the global evolution of a turbulent protoplanetary disk incorporating the effects of Maxwell stress due to a large-scale magnetic field permeating the disk. A magnetic field is produced continuously by an dynamo and the resultant Maxwell stress assists the viscous stress in p roviding the means for disk evolution. The most striking feature of magnetized disk evolution is the presence of the surface density bulge located in the magnetic gap, the region of the disk where the degree of ionization is too low to allow for coupli ng between the magnetic field and the gas. The bulge persists for a time of the order of 10⁵–10⁶ yr. The presence and persistence of the surface density bulge may have important implications for the process of planet formation and the overall characteristics of resultant planetary systems.Operated by USRA under contract No. NASW-4574 with NASA.     

Near-infrared imaging in H2 of molecular (CO) outflows from young stars

We have imaged several known molecular (CO) outflows in H₂ v=1-0 S(1) and wide-band K in order to identify the molecular shocks associated with the acceleration of ambient gas by outflows from young stars. We detected H₂ line emission in all the flows we observed: L 1157, VLA 1623, NGC 6334I, NGC 2264G, L 1641N and Haro 4-255. A comparison of the H₂ data with CO outflow maps strongly suggests that prompt entrainment near the head of a collimated jet probably is the dominant mechanism for producing the CO outflows in these sources.     

The densest prestellar condensations: H2CO Studies ofρ Oph B1

We present new images of the well-known molecular outflow and Herbig-Haro complex L 1551-IRS 5. Deep, high-resolution images of the central region of the flow in [SII] 6716,6731 and H (6565 Å) are complemented by a mosaic of much of the CO outflow in H₂ v=1-0 S(1). While the optical data trace the intermediate-to-high excitation shocks in the flow (v _shock > 30 – 50 km s^–1), the near-IR data reveal the lower-excitation, molecular shocks (v _shock 10–50 km s^–1). In particular, the H₂ data highlight the regions where the flow impacts and shocks ambient molecular gas.