Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

辽宁省“十五”数字化地磁数据分析系统

依据台站“十五”数字化地磁工作需求,结合地磁学科组运行管理的相关技术要求,研发辽宁省“十五”数字化地磁数据分析系统.该软件采用IDL作为开发语言,Oracle 10g数据库管理数据,主要包含用户管理模块、日志管理模块和数据管理模块3部分,具备数据实时处理、快速成像、操作简便、安全稳定等特点,可以有效解决目前台站地磁数据...     

综合分析技术在微细粒浸染型金矿金赋存状态研究中的应用

采用化学组分分析、物相分析、粒度筛析、X射线面扫描分析、矿物分离分析并结合数理统计分析等综合分析技术对微细粒浸染型金矿进行工艺矿物学研究,较为快速、准确地查明该金精矿金的赋存状态.几种分析方法互为补充,结果吻合.     

Reliability bearing capacity analysis of footings on cohesive soil slopes using RFEM

Reliability analysis of bearing capacity of a strip footing at the crest of a simple slope with cohesive soil was carried out using the random finite element method (RFEM). Analyses showed that the coefficient of variation and the spatial correlation length of soil cohesion can have a large influence on footing bearing capacity, particularly for slopes with large height to footing width ratios. The paper demonstrates cases where a footing satisfies a deterministic design factor of safety of 3 but the probability of design failure is unacceptably high. Isotropic and anisotropic spatial variability of the soil strength was also considered.     

使用价值分析优化方法在功能-技术矩阵求解中的应用

功能-技术矩阵,经众多工作者的努力研究,已渐趋成熟与实用。但如何利用功能-技术矩阵构造在广义现代设计领域中适用的科学模式,解决多学科设计方案的组成与评价问题,还存在薄弱环节。本文利用\     

2013年河北中南部PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)浓度时间变化特征及其影响气象条件分析

对2013年河北省中南部的石家庄、保定、沧州、衡水、邢台和邯郸6个地市市区各站点逐小时PM10和PM2.5监测资料及相应气象资料分析结果表明:6个地市中邢台年污染日数最多,对应其年平均风速最小;沧州的最少,年平均风速最大。各地市各个级别污染日数不同,五、六级重污染天气均集中在10月—次年3月。首要污染物主要是PM10和PM2.5,但比例不尽相同。特殊的地理位置、污染源差异和气象条件的差异造成各地市污染日数、级别的差异。6个地市污染天气过程时段大都相同,区域性污染明显。各地市PM10和PM2.5浓度平均最大值均出现在冬季,PM10浓度平均最小值均出现在夏季,各市PM2.5浓度平均最小值出现的季节不同。6个地市PM10和PM2.5浓度值的月变化趋势相似。不同季节各地市PM10和PM2.5浓度日变化趋势不同,极值出现的时间也各不相同,极值出现的时间与气象条件和人类活动关系密切。秋、冬季各地市PM10和PM2.5浓度日较差多大于春、夏季的。各地市PM10和PM2.5浓度日均值与当地的日均气温、风速、能见度呈负相关关系,与相对湿度呈正相关关系且相关性比较显著。     

Recent progress in estimating uncertainty in geomagnetic field modeling

Abstract

Recent work pertaining to estimating error and accuracies in geomagnetic field modeling is reviewed from a unified viewpoint and illustrated with examples. The formulation of a finite dimensional approximation to the underlying infinite dimensional problem is developed. Central to the formulation is an inner product and norm in the solution space through which a priori information can be brought to bear on the problem. Such information is crucial to estimation of the effects of higher degree fields at the Core-Mantle boundary (CMB) because the behavior of higher degree fields is masked in our measurements by the presence of the field from the Earth's crust. Contributions to the errors in predicting geophysical quantities based on the approximate model are separated into three categories: (1) the usual error from the measurement noise; (2) the error from unmodeled fields, i.e. from sources in the crust, ionosphere, etc.; and (3) the error from truncating to a finite dimensioned solution and prediction space. The combination of the first two is termed low degree error while the third is referred to as truncation error.

The error analysis problem consists of “characterizing” the difference δz = z—z, where z is some quantity depending on the magnetic field and z is the estimate of z resulting from our model. Two approaches are discussed. The method of Confidence Set Inference (CSI) seeks to find an upper bound for |z—?|. Statistical methods, i.e. Bayesian or Stochastic Estimation, seek to estimate E(δz² ), where E is the expectation value. Estimation of both the truncation error and low degree error is discussed for both approaches. Expressions are found for an upper bound for |δz| and for E(δz² ). Of particular interest is the computation of the radial field, B., at the CMB for which error estimates are made as examples of the methods. Estimated accuracies of the Gauss coefficients are given for the various methods. In general, the lowest error estimates result when the greatest amount of a priori information is available and, indeed, the estimates for truncation error are completely dependent upon the nature of the a priori information assumed. For the most conservative approach, the error in computing point values of B_r at the CMB is unbounded and one must be content with, e.g., averages over some large area. The various assumptions about a priori information are reviewed. Work is needed to extend and develop this information. In particular, information regarding the truncated fields is needed to determine if the pessimistic bounds presently available are realistic or if there is a real physical basis for lower error estimates. Characterization of crustal fields for degree greater than 50 is needed as is more rigorous characterization of the external fields.     

Walsh列率域中多维分形模型与GIS环境下地球物理信号处理

地球物理信号通常在多个尺度段表现尺度不变性,这些不变性起因于不同的地质、地球物理或成矿过程的自相似性. 利用这种在多个尺度段的尺度不变性可以设计多维分形滤波器,滤波所得信号表征了具尺度不变性的地质地球物理或成矿过程,可以用于成矿预测或环境评价. 本文研究了Walsh变换列率空间地球物理信号的列率功率谱密度与列率之间的分形与多维分形关系, 试验证实了大洋钻探、石油以及煤系地层地球物理测井资料在Walsh域的多维分形性质,提出了用于分解地球物理场,提取有用信号并用于矿产资源勘探或环境评价的多维分形W-A模型. 利用波列率域中的多维分形关系构造了W-A图解(W-A Plot). 借助W-A图解可以确定最小平方误差（LS）意义下Walsh功率谱变化的不同自相似性的频率分界点,从而用于设计W-A分形滤波器. 这种滤波器可将地球物理场分解成具有不同自相似性的局部场,并且保留原场的各向异性结构. 与通常使用的基于Fourier变换的滤波技术相比,W-A模型具有许多优点：W-A适用于检测地球物理信号中的突变、线性、环状、局部与纹理结构等弱信号. 同时,由于Walsh变换中只有简单的变号(加法与减法),其计算速度远快于建立在复数乘法之上的Fourier变换,所以W-A计算速度远快于Fourier域的滤波方法,可以用于地球物理信号的现场实时处理. 用加拿大Nova-cotia省西南地区的布格重力异常进行了W-A方法的试算,处理结果反映了地质、矿产分布规律,能够很好地进行矿产预测.     

旋转触探数学模型及其试验分析

通过对旋转触探用双螺旋探头的受力分析,建立了螺旋探头的贯入阻力和扭矩与贯入速度和转速,以及岩土的力学性能参数间的数学模型。结合数学模型和试验数据对旋转触探技术的影响因素进行了分析,为设计探头结构和进一步理解该技术的力学机理提供了理论依据。     

不同采出程度下石油组分变化特征

利用GHM烃分析仪对水驱模拟实验过程中不同阶段的采出原油进行分析,研究其原油组成的变化规律,探索原油组成与采出程度之间的内在关系。实验表明 :原油的采出程度与采出流体PV数之间具有良好的对应关系;随着采出程度逐渐提高,原油中正构烷烃的碳数范围及主峰碳数逐渐后移,原油的轻 /重比值呈现降低趋势。实验还证明,某些在空间上呈圆柱型、具有规则支链的分子比相近碳数的直链分子更容易被驱出。该项研究对于从微观角度深入探索驱油机理、提高原油采收率具有实际意义。