风暴潮灾害情景下海岸带暴露指数时空演变研究——以福建省东山湾为例

暴露指数反映了环境在面对极端天气事件时承受灾害的潜在风险程度。研究利用遥感影像数据、数字高程数据(DEM)、海洋水深及风力数据等, 基于暴露指数模型, 以福建省东山湾为案例研究区域, 对风暴潮灾害情景下的海岸带暴露指数及其时空演变进行分析。研究结果显示: (1)近十年来, 东山湾海岸带暴露指数总体呈下降趋势, 潜在风险程度为“中”及以上区域占比由67.14%下降至59.06%, 海岸带在面对风暴潮灾害等极端天气事件时潜在的风险程度总体降低, 海湾地貌类型差异及其形态变化是影响东山湾暴露指数产生波动的主要原因; (2)基于暴露指数评价结果, 结合海岸带开发利用现状, 研究可对东山湾海岸带生态环境的敏感区域进行识别, 并制定具有针对性的开发利用与风险防范对策, 为海岸带空间规划、生态保护修复格局的科学划定提供理论支撑, 在助力海岸带陆海统筹和可持续发展上具有重要意义; (3)研究提出的一种基于时间序列的暴露指数研究技术路线和框架, 可为海岸带脆弱性评估、海岸带韧性评估、海岸带灾害监测预警等相关研究提供新的研究视角, 在基于深度学习的海岸带灾害风险预警与灾害模拟等方面也具有较为广阔的应用前景。     

Least‐square support vector machine applied to settlement of shallow foundations on cohesionless soils

This paper examines the potential of least‐square support vector machine (LSVVM) in the prediction of settlement of shallow foundation on cohesionless soil. In LSSVM, Vapnik's ε‐insensitive loss function has been replaced by a cost function that corresponds to a form of ridge regression. The LSSVM involves equality instead of inequality constraints and works with a least‐squares cost function. The five input variables used for the LSSVM for the prediction of settlement are footing width (B), footing length (L), footing net applied pressure (P), average standard penetration test value (N) and footing embedment depth (d). Comparison between LSSVM and some of the traditional interpretation methods are also presented. LSSVM has been used to compute error bar. The results presented in this paper clearly highlight that the LSSVM is a robust tool for prediction of settlement of shallow foundation on cohesionless soil. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of δ13C and C/N ratios in bulk organic matter as palaeosalinity indicators in Holocene and Lateglacial isolation basin sediments,northwest Scotland

Carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) and C/N ratios from bulk organic matter have recently been used as alternative proxies for relative sea‐level (RSL) reconstruction where there are problems associated with conventional biological indictors. A previous study on a single isolation basin (Upper Loch nan Eala) in northwest Scotland has shown a clear relationship between δ¹³C, C/N ratios and palaeosalinity from Younger Dryas and Holocene aged sediments. In this paper we present results of δ¹³C and C/N ratio analyses from other isolation basins in northwest Scotland over the Holocene and the Lateglacial period in order to validate this technique. The results from the Holocene sequences support the earlier findings that this technique can be used to identify RSL change from isolation basins over the Holocene in this region. The relationship between δ¹³C, C/N ratios and RSL change is not apparent in sediments of Lateglacial age. Other environmental variables such as atmospheric CO₂ concentration, poor vegetation development and temperature influence δ¹³C values during this period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Holocene coastal environmental changes on the periphery of an area of glacio‐isostatic uplift: an example from Scapa Bay,Orkney, UK

The first detailed investigation of a deep, coastal, sedimentary basin in Orkney reveals a complex Holocene history of back‐barrier morphodynamics. At Scapa Bay, the sea flooded a freshwater marsh after ca. 9400 yr BP at ca. ?5.4 m OD. Before ca. 7800 BP, abundant sediment from nearby cliffs was mobilised inland into a series of gravel barriers across the valley mouth. By ca. 7500 BP, direct marine influence was restricted in the back‐barrier area, although saltmarsh persisted until ca. 5900 BP. By then, at least four gravel ridges had enclosed the backing lagoon, where freshwater inputs became dominant. As terrestrial sediments filled the basin, another freshwater marsh developed. The multiple barrier complex demonstrates progradation resulting from continuous sediment supply in a sheltered embayment. The progressively rising height of the barrier crests seawards probably resulted from a combination of factors such as barrier morphodynamics, increased storminess and long‐term rising relative sea levels. The dominant vegetation surrounding Scapa Bay changed from open grassland to scrub ca. 9400 BP, then to deciduous woodland ca. 7800 BP, and to dwarf‐shrub heath ca. 2600 BP, the latter probably a response to a combination of climate change and human activity. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Luminescence chronology of late Holocene extreme hydrological events in the upper Penner River basin,South India

Field stratigraphy, sedimentology and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating have been used to reconstruct the southwest monsoon variability in the semi‐arid region of southern India during the late Holocene. Facies architecture and OSL dating of the water‐lain sediment suggest prevalence of a weak hydrological regime around 3 ka. Following this, a progressive strengthening of monsoon occurred till 2 ka. After 2 ka and until 1 ka fluvial activity was nearly dormant, indicating weakening of the monsoon. Presence of high‐magnitude flood deposits, overbank sedimentation and pedogenesis during 1–0.6 ka indicate intensification of the southwest monsoon in the basin. The onset of aridity was associated with episodic storm surge events that are manifested in the pond sedimentation and localised aeolian accretion. This phase is bracketed between 0.5 ka and 0.2 ka. A renewed phase of monsoonal activity was observed in the form of floodplain aggradation between 180 and 90 years ago. In the past 70 years no significant change in the monsoon performance has been observed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pleistocene climatic change in Southern Australia and its effect on speleothem deposition in some Nullarbor caves

Activity ratios of ²³⁴U/²³⁸U, ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U, and ²³⁰Th/²³²Th have been determined for calcite, gypsum and halite speleothems from caves of the Nullarbor Plain, mostly in the area N and NW of Mundrabilla Station, for the purpose of U-series dating. All calcite speleothems contain adequate amounts of uranium for dating, but some show an excess of ²³⁰Th. Stratigraphic relationships indicate that there were at least three phases of calcium carbonate deposition in the Nullarbor caves. The calcite samples, with one possible exception, have ages in excess of ca. 400000 yrs BP. This suggests that no significant amounts of calcium carbonate deposition have taken place during the last 400ka. At present, active deposition of speleothems is restricted almost entirely to gypsum and halite. The only gypsum speleothem dated was found to have a finite age of ca. 185 ka. Six dates on a small halite speleothem containing insect and arachnid remains indicate that it formed rapidly during Holocene time.     

Spatial scale effect on seasonal streamflows in permafrost catchments on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The scale issue is of central concern in hydrological processes to understand the potential upscaling or downscaling methodologies, and to develop models for scaling the dominant processes at different scales and in different environments. In this study, a typical permafrost watershed in the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau was selected. Its hydrological processes were monitored for 4 years from 2004 to 2008, measuring the effects of freezing and thawing depth of active soil layers on runoff processes. To identify the nature and cause of variation in the runoff response in different size catchments, catchments ranging from 1·07 to 112 km² were identified in the watershed. The results indicated that the variation of runoff coefficients showed a ‘V’ shape with increasing catchment size during the spring and autumn seasons, when the active soil was subjected to thawing or freezing processes. A two‐stage method was proposed to create runoff scaling models to indicate the effects of scale on runoff processes. In summer, the scaling transition model followed an exponential function for mean daily discharge, whereas the scaling model for flood flow exhibited a linear function. In autumn, the runoff process transition across multiple scales followed an exponential function with air temperature as the driving factor. These scaling models demonstrate relatively high simulation efficiency and precision, and provide a practical way for upscaling or downscaling runoff processes in a medium‐size permafrost watershed. For permafrost catchments of this scale, the results show that the synergistic effect of scale and vegetation cover is an important driving factor in the runoff response. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution of three unconformity‐bounded sandy carbonate successions in the McArthur River region of northern Australia: The Lawn,Wide and Doom Supersequences in a proximal part of the Isa Superbasin

Gamma‐ray curves from surface outcrops together with U–Pb SHRIMP zircon dating are used to redefine the evolution of a Palaeoproterozoic sandy dolostone succession from northern Australia. This case history indicates that gamma‐ray logging of surface sections should accompany lithostratigraphic logging or an inadequate interpretation of stratigraphic evolution is a likely outcome. The 1200 m‐thick Nathan Group from the McArthur River area had previously been interpreted as a more‐or‐less continuous package of carbonates deposited in lacustrine and associated shallow‐water environments. Now it is seen to comprise the preserved remnants of three truncated, second‐order supersequences—the Lawn, Wide and Doom Supersequences—each a few hundred metres thick and each deposited over a time period of a few million years. These supersequences are separated by major stratigraphic breaks each approaching probably 10 million years duration. Each supersequence comprises several third‐order sequences which themselves contain higher‐order cycles. These were deposited in a series of continental, shoreline, and inner to outer carbonate platform environments. Transgressive, high‐energy, fluvial to marginal marine, mixed clastic‐carbonate facies dominate most of the sequences. The middle, Wide Supersequence, however, preserves deeper water (mostly sub‐storm‐wave‐base) stromatolitic facies in one sequence, and storm‐reworked clastics in another. These are interpreted as condensed intervals deposited around their respective maximum flooding surfaces and are succeeded by regressive facies that probably represent highstand systems tracts. New correlations between these 1615–1575 Ma sandy carbonate successions of the McArthur Basin (Amos, Balbirini and Dungaminnie Formations) and time‐equivalent largely clastic successions in the Lawn Hill area (Lawn Hill and Doomadgee Formations), some 400 km to the southeast, are proposed.     

Numerical simulation of fully saturated porous materials

Fully coupled, porous solid–fluid formulation, implementation and related modeling and simulation issues are presented in this work. To this end, coupled dynamic field equations with u?p?U formulation are used to simulate pore fluid and soil skeleton (elastic–plastic porous solid) responses. Present formulation allows, among other features, for water accelerations to be taken into account. This proves to be useful in modeling dynamic interaction of media of different stiffnesses (as in soil–foundation–structure interaction). Fluid compressibility is also explicitly taken into account, thus allowing excursions into modeling of limited cases of non‐saturated porous media. In addition to these features, present formulation and implementation models in a realistic way the physical damping, which dissipates energy. In particular, the velocity proportional damping is appropriately modeled and simulated by taking into account the interaction of pore fluid and solid skeleton. Similarly, the displacement proportional damping is physically modeled through elastic–plastic processes in soil skeleton. An advanced material model for sand is used in present work and is discussed at some length. Also explored in this paper are the verification and validation issues related to fully coupled modeling and simulations of porous media. Illustrative examples describing the dynamical behavior of porous media (saturated soils) are presented. The verified and validated methods and material models are used to predict the behavior of level and sloping grounds subjected to seismic shaking. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Glacier fluctuations in the southern Peruvian Andes during the late‐glacial period,constrained with cosmogenic 3He

The occurrence of pronounced climate reversals during the last glacial termination has long been recognised in palaeoclimate records from both hemispheres and from high to low latitudes. Accurate constraint of both the timing and magnitude of events, such as the Younger Dryas and Antarctic Cold Reversal, is vital in order to test different hypotheses for the causes and propagation of abrupt climate change. However, in contrast to higher‐latitude regions, well‐dated records from the Tropics are rare and the structure of late‐glacial tropical climate remains uncertain. As a step toward addressing this problem, we present an in situ cosmogenic ³He surface exposure chronology from Nevado Coropuna, southern Peru, documenting a significant fluctuation of the ice margin during the late‐glacial period. Ten tightly clustered ages from a pair of moraines located halfway between the modern glacier and the Last Glacial Maximum terminus range from 11.9 to 13.9 ka and give an arithmetic mean age of 12.8 ± 0.7 ka (1σ). These data constitute direct evidence for a readvance, or prolonged stillstand, of glaciers in the arid Andes of southwestern Peru. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.