大气水—地表水—土壤水—地下水相互转化关系的试验研究

本文重点研究了有作物条件下不同供水农田的“四水”相互转化,突出了有作物条件下降水入渗、潜水蒸发的差异性,土壤水在农业生态环境中的重要性,为水资源多目标开发,探索新路子。     

Rainfall network design using kriging and entropy

The spatial distribution of rainfall is related to meteorological and topographical factors. An understanding of the weather and topography is required to select the locations of the rain gauge stations in the catchment to obtain the optimum information. In theory, a well‐designed rainfall network can accurately represent and provide the needed information of rainfall in the catchment. However, the available rainfall data are rarely adequate in the mountainous area of Taiwan. In order to provide enough rainfall data to assure the success of water projects, the rainfall network based on the existing rain gauge stations has to be redesigned. A method composed of kriging and entropy that can determine the optimum number and spatial distribution of rain gauge stations in catchments is proposed. Kriging as an interpolator, which performs linear averaging to reconstruct the rainfall over the catchment on the basis of the observed rainfall, is used to compute the spatial variations of rainfall. Thus, the rainfall data at the locations of the candidate rain gauge stations can be reconstructed. The information entropy reveals the rainfall information of the each rain gauge station in the catchment. By calculating the joint entropy and the transmitted information, the candidate rain gauge stations are prioritized. In addition, the saturation of rainfall information can be used to add or remove the rain gauge stations. Thus, the optimum spatial distribution and the minimum number of rain gauge stations in the network can be determined. The catchment of the Shimen Reservoir in Taiwan is used to illustrate the method. The result shows that only seven rain gauge stations are needed to provide the necessary information. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

海洋木栖真菌抗菌活性的初步研究

从福建厦门海沧、集美及漳州浮宫等地采集到的红树林等海洋潮间带的各种腐木样品中分离得到176株海洋木栖真菌,对其进行抗菌活性检测.其结果表明共有96株海洋木栖真菌对大肠杆菌、枯草杆菌及白色假丝酵母中的一种或多种拮抗指示菌具有抑制作用,占供测菌株总数的54.5%.在这些活性菌株中,红树源菌株拮抗比例为30.2%,非红树源菌株拮抗比例为69.8%.具有抗菌活性的菌株主要分布于15个属中,包括木霉Trichoderma、青霉Penicillium、拟青霉Paecilomyces和一些不产孢的分类群.某些稀有真菌如盘多毛孢Pestalotia、茎点霉Phoma也具有一定的抗菌活性.     

Climate Change of 4°C Global Warming above Pre-industrial Levels

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4°C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4°C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4°C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-to-noise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the inter-model consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.     

Benchmarking observational uncertainties for hydrology: rainfall,river discharge and water quality

This review and commentary sets out the need for authoritative and concise information on the expected error distributions and magnitudes in observational data. We discuss the necessary components of a benchmark of dominant data uncertainties and the recent developments in hydrology which increase the need for such guidance. We initiate the creation of a catalogue of accessible information on characteristics of data uncertainty for the key hydrological variables of rainfall, river discharge and water quality (suspended solids, phosphorus and nitrogen). This includes demonstration of how uncertainties can be quantified, summarizing current knowledge and the standard quantitative results available. In particular, synthesis of results from multiple studies allows conclusions to be drawn on factors which control the magnitude of data uncertainty and hence improves provision of prior guidance on those uncertainties. Rainfall uncertainties were found to be driven by spatial scale, whereas river discharge uncertainty was dominated by flow condition and gauging method. Water quality variables presented a more complex picture with many component errors. For all variables, it was easy to find examples where relative error magnitudes exceeded 40%. We consider how data uncertainties impact on the interpretation of catchment dynamics, model regionalization and model evaluation. In closing the review, we make recommendations for future research priorities in quantifying data uncertainty and highlight the need for an improved ‘culture of engagement’ with observational uncertainties. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical moment-based structural damage detection method in time domain

A novel structural damage detection method with a new damage index,i.e.,the statistical moment-based damage detection(SMBDD) method in the frequency domain,has been recently proposed.The aim of this study is to extend the SMBDD method in the frequency domain to the time domain for building structures subjected to non-Gaussian and non-stationary excitations.The applicability and effectiveness of the SMBDD method in the time domainis verified both numerically and experimentally.Shear buildings with various damage scenarios are first numerically investigated in the time domain taking into account the effect of measurement noise.The applicability of the proposed method in the time domain to building structures subjected to non-Gaussian and non-stationary excitations is then experimentally investigated through a series of shaking table tests,in which two three-story shear building models with four damage scenarios aretested.The identified damage locations and severities are then compared with the preset values.The comparative results are found to be satisfactory,and the SMBDD method is shown to be feasible and effective for building structures subjected to non-Gaussian and non-stationary excitations.     

发展钻孔应变观测的战略构想

钻孔应变观测正在成为一种与测震和GPS相提并论的地壳形变观测。曾经处于领先地位的我国钻孔应力一应变观测的发展需要回顾历史,面对现实,借鉴国外,放眼长远。建立比测基地、实验场和完善国家前兆监测网,三位一体,应该成为发展我国钻孔应变观测的基本方针。     

A Nonlinear Representation of Model Uncertainty in a Convective-Scale Ensemble Prediction System

How to accurately address model uncertainties with consideration of the rapid nonlinear error growth characteristics in a convection-allowing system is a crucial issue for performing convection-scale ensemble forecasts. In this study, a new nonlinear model perturbation technique for convective-scale ensemble forecasts is developed to consider a nonlinear representation of model errors in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System(GRAPES)Convection-Allowing Ensemble Predi...     

对空间数据不确定性研究的思考

对GIS中空间数据不确定性研究中存在的问题进行思考后提出了5点建议.主要包括:1) 要区分GIS中确定性目标和不确定性目标;2) 要区分用离散点逼近曲线/曲面的逼近误差和离散点自身量测误差及其传播;3) 要研究GIS中的几何不确定性,更要重视研究属性和时态不确定性;4) 要研究空间数据质量,更要研究空间信息服务的质量;5) 空间数据不确定性研究要努力向实际应用转化.     

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