基于均值漂移的粒子滤波算法设计及其在导航数据处理中的应用

针对标准粒子滤波算法中存在的计算量大和粒子的权值退化的缺陷,将均值漂移算法和PF算法进行融合,设计基于均值漂移搜索算法的粒子滤波新算法。该算法仍遵从粒子滤波算法的计算框架,基本原理是利用MS算法对粒子的聚类作用,将均值漂移思想融合到粒子滤波算法的重要性采样过程中,对粒子集进行确定性搜索,使每个粒子收敛于局部最优值,这样粒子的状态表示更接近真实的状态分布,因此只需较少的粒子数便可达到未嵌入MS的使用大量粒子数的粒子滤波状态估计的性能,从而在缓解粒子的权值退化的同时提高粒子滤波算法的实时性。大量的数值试验和对GPS/DR组合导航数据处理的结果验证了该方法的有效性。     

岩石变形破坏的熵突变过程与破坏判据

在岩石的变形破坏过程中,当进入不稳定的破裂发展阶段之后,系统不断调整结构抵抗外力的扰动,裂纹向局域集中的有序方向发展,应变能不断耗散,并以应变能的耗散为媒介,使系统与外扰动所追加的负熵流产生能量流通,也使系统熵值和系统的维数逐次降低,这一阶段岩石系统远离平衡态,岩石的破坏是系统熵的突变过程。基于这一认识,并在验证应变能分布与结构块度分布模式的一致性的基础上,推导出包含了结构因素和能量分布的熵表达式;对熵表达式进行平衡分析获得局部突变的分岔集,得到了岩石局部破坏的熵折迭突变破坏准则;同时,探讨了熵表达式所表征的结构有序度的尖点突变性,解出岩石系统的分岔集,这个分岔集就是岩石系统熵突变的整体破坏准则。     

MELTWATER FLUXES AT AN ARCTIC FOREST-TUNDRA SITE

Models of surface energy balance and snow metamorphism are utilized to predict the energy and meltwater fluxes at an Arctic site in the forest–tundra transition zone of north-western Canada. The surface energy balance during the melt period is modelled using an hourly bulk aerodynamic approach. Once a snowcover becomes patchy, advection from the bare patches to the snow-covered areas results in a large spatial variation in basin snowmelt. In order to illustrate the importance of small-scale, horizontal advection, a simple parameterization scheme using sensible heat fluxes from snow free areas was tested. This scheme estimates the maximum horizontal advection of sensible heat from the bare patches to the snow-covered areas. Calculated melt was routed through the measured snowcover in each landscape type using a variable flow path, meltwater percolation model. This allowed the determination of the spatial variability in the timing and magnitude of meltwater release for runoff. Model results indicate that the initial release of meltwater first occurred on the shallow upland tundra sites, but meltwater release did not occur until nearly two weeks later on the deep drift snowcovers. During these early periods of melt, not all meltwater is available for runoff. Instead, there is a period when some snowpacks are only partially contributing to runoff, and the spatial variation of runoff contribution corresponds to landscape type. Comparisons of melt with and without advection suggests that advection is an important process controlling the timing of basin snowmelt.     

锦屏大理岩动态劈裂拉伸破坏及能量演化特征分析

劈裂拉伸破坏是隧洞围岩失稳破坏的主要形式之一。现阶段,在动态劈裂条件下岩石裂纹扩展及对应阶段的能量演化机制鲜有涉及。基于此,采用分离式霍普金森压杆对锦屏大理岩试样进行了不同弹速下的劈裂试验,并借助ANSYS/LS-DYNA有限元软件,模拟试样动态劈裂破坏过程。从试验测试和数值计算角度,重点分析大理岩劈裂过程中的裂纹扩展机制以及能量演化特征。结果表明：在应变率为5～35 s−1时,大理岩的动态拉伸强度与应变率呈线性正相关,同其他地区大理岩相比较,锦屏大理岩的应变率敏感性相对较低;随着弹速的增加,系统内能和动能均增大,在试样破坏的瞬间系统内能降至最低;采用标定的Cowper-Symonds本构模型参数进行数值模拟,所得的试样最终破坏形态与试验观察到的现象基本一致。研究结果可为具体工程应用提供指导和参考。     

基于灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计与实现

通过对灰色GM[1,1]模型的算法改进,将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫链结合,既可以发挥灰色系统预测精确的特点,又可以利用马尔科夫链对准确预测波动性数据的优势。在灰色马尔科夫链模型的算法基础上,采用Visual Studio 2005开发环境,进行灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计。最后利用南方某地区十年来土地利用数据进行系统验证,结果表明,灰色马尔科夫链模型能很大地提高预测的精度和效果,符合实际要求。     

Comparison of ecophysiological characteristics between introduced and indigenous mangrove species in China

Due to its rapid growth, the introduced mangrove species Sonneratia apetala from Bangladesh has been widely used in mangrove restoration in southeastern China since 1985. As an indigenous mangrove species in Hainan, China, Sonneratia caseolaris was also planted in Guangdong Province for afforestation purposes. Both species have developed well in their new habitats, but their ecophysiological differences with the native mangrove species have not been studied. In this study, leaf gas exchange, water and nitrogen use efficiencies of two Sonneratia species were compared with those of selected native mangrove species (Avicennia marina, Aegiceras corniculatum, Kandelia candel, and Excoecaria agallocha) in Hainan and Shenzhen. The introduced S. apetala maintained lower carbon assimilation rate (A) and photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency (PNUE) than the indigenous S. caseolaris. In Shenzhen, the two introduced Sonneratia had comparable photosynthetic rates and water use efficiency (WUE) with the native mangrove species, except that PNUE in S. caseolaris was significantly higher than in the native mangrove species. The two Sonneratia species showed significant overlap in PNUE and long-term WUE. Photosynthetic parameters derived from leaf photosynthetic light–response curves and A–C_i curves also suggested lower carbon assimilation capacities for the introduced Sonneratia than for the native mangrove species in both study sites. The lower light compensation point (LCP) of two introduced Sonneratia in both study sites also indicated a better adaptation to a low light regime than the native mangrove species. The results of photosynthetic capacities indicated that the introduced mangrove species have little competitive advantage over local native mangrove species in their respective new habitats.     

Structure of the Potential Vorticity of an Explosive Cyclone over the Eastern Asian Region in Late November 2013

An explosive extratropical cyclone(EC)over the Eastern Asian region that caused two shipwrecks is analyzed using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Analyses of the evolution of the EC reveal that the positive potential vorticity(PV)at the upper-tropospheric level displays a hook-shaped structure during the mature period of the cyclone.The PV distribution forms a vertically coherent PV structure called a PV tower.The vertical distribution of the PV can induce and strengthen cyclonic circulation from the lower-to upper-levels of troposphere,which is an important deepening mechanism of explosive cyclone.The PV tower occurs approximately ten hours prior to the development of surface occlusion in the cyclone.The evolution of surface fronts closely follows the development of the horizontal upper-tropospheric PV.This tandem development is largely attributed to the ability of the positive upper-tropospheric PV and the PV tower to induce cyclonic circulation simultaneously.The kinematic wrap-up process of cyclonic circulation also accelerates the formation of warm occlusion.A conceptual model of the distributions of positive PV and potential temperature combining the perspectives of dynamic tropopause folding,PV tower,and atmospheric stability,including westward tilting and baroclinicity,is proposed.This model can illustrate the explosive deepening mechanism of ECs.The regions of convective instability and rainfall determined by this model are consistent with those identified from the actual observation.     

An observational constraint on the existence of proto-superclusters at z =3.3

Observations have been conducted using the Ooty Radio Telescope in order to place constraints on the evolutionary scenario leading to the formation of the present day superclusters. The experiment attempted to detect 21 cm emission from massive neutral hydrogen condensates at a redshift ofz = 3.3. In an Einstein de-Sitter universe with baryon density Ω = 0.05, about ten condensates were expected in the volume surveyed if superclusters, having H I masses ≃5 × 10₁₅ M _⊙, were the first objects to separate out of the Hubble expansion. The sensitivity of our experiment rules out the existence of these condensates atz = 3.3 unless their lifetimes are less than one-tenth the dispersion in their epoch of formation or the proto-superclusters subtend angles greater than 6 arcmin. The result indicates that superclusters form at z > 3.3 if indeed they were the first objects to condense out of the Hubble flow. An erratum to this article is available at .     

地磁场能量在地球内部的分布及其长期变化

用国际参考地磁场模型(IGRF)分析了地磁场能量在地球内部的分布及其长期变化.结果表明,从1900年到2005年,地核以外地磁场总能量由6.818×1018J减少到6.594×1018J,减小了3.3%,地表以外地磁场总能量由8.658×101J减小到.63×101J,减小了11.4%.分析地球内部不同圈层地磁场能量的变化表明,地壳(A层)、上地幔(B层)、转换带(C层)、下地幔D′层的地磁场总能量在减小,但是下地幔"层的地磁场总能量却在快速增加.磁能密度随时间的变化更清楚地显示出磁能增加和减小的分界面在r=3840km处.上述结果表明,地核和地表以外地磁场总能量在趋势性减小的同时,也在进行重新分配.进一步分析表明,下地幔D"层磁能快速增长,主要是由高阶磁多极子的增强引起的.在地磁场倒转前,偶极矩减小而多极性相对增强在能量分布上的表现就是磁能向下地幔底部(特别是D"层)集中.     

基于生态足迹的区域生态适度人口研究——以新疆生产建设兵团为例

适度人口取决于生态、经济和土地等多要素的综合承载力。介绍了生态足迹模型的基本概念和计算方法,并运用该模型对兵团1995—2008年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行了计算,在此基础上对兵团的1995—2010年的生态适度人口进行了估算。结果表明,1995—1999年兵团的实际人口虽然在增加,但相对于生态适度人口并没有出现过剩;2000—2010年兵团生态适度人口在不断下降,实际人口和过剩人口却在不断增加。兵团目前已经出现了过度人口和生态赤字,人地矛盾相对紧张,生态适度人口规模是不合理的。