基于人工神经网络的地震经济损失评估

地震经济损失估计是涉及多方面、多级次的复杂指标体系的非线性动力问题。其指标体系的选取以具有代表性、可靠、易获取、易于定量化为原则。应用MATLAB6.5神经网络工具箱,建立了适用于震后经济损失快速评估的三层BP神经网络地震灾害经济评估模型。     

Energy losses in compound open channels

This paper investigates energy losses in compound channel under non-uniform flow conditions. Using the first law of thermodynamics, the concepts of energy loss and head loss are first distinguished. They are found to be different within one sub-section (main channel or floodplain). Experimental measurements of the head within the main channel and the floodplain are then analyzed for geometries with constant or variable channel width. Results show that head loss differs from one sub-section to another: the classical 1D hypothesis of unique head loss gradient appears to be erroneous. Using a model that couple 1D momentum equations, called “Independent Sub-sections Method (ISM)”, head losses are resolved. The relative weights of head losses related to bed friction, turbulent exchanges and mass transfers between sub-sections are estimated. It is shown that water level and the discharge distribution across the channel are influenced by turbulent exchanges for (a) developing flows in straight channels, but only when the flow tends to uniformity; (b) flows in skewed floodplains and symmetrical converging floodplains for small relative flow depth; (c) flows in symmetrical diverging floodplains for small and medium relative depth. Flow parameters are influenced by the momentum flux due to mass exchanges in all non-prismatic geometries for small and medium relative depth, while this flux is negligible for developing flows in straight geometry. The role of an explicit modeling of mass conservation between sub-sections is eventually investigated.     

Component correlations in structure‐specific seismic loss estimation

This paper addresses correlations between multiple components in structure‐specific seismic loss estimation. To date, the consideration of such correlations has been limited by methodological tractability, increased computational demand, and a paucity of data for their computation. The effect of component correlations, which arises in various forms, is however a significant factor affecting the results of structure‐specific seismic loss estimation and therefore it is prudent that adequate consideration be given to their effect. This paper provides the details of a tractable and computationally efficient seismic loss estimation methodology in which correlations can be considered. Methods to determine the necessary correlations are discussed, particularly those that can be used in the absence of sufficient empirical data, for which values are suggested based on the judgement. The effects of various assumptions regarding correlations are illustrated via application to a case‐study office structure. It is observed that certain correlation assumptions can lead to errors in excess of 50% in the lognormal standard deviation in the loss given intensity and loss hazard relationships, while full consideration of partial correlations is 50 times more computationally expensive than other assumptions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

5·12汶川地震灾评工作中的几点认识

由于汶川地震是新中国成立以来破坏性最强、地震灾害最重、救灾难度最大、波及范围最广的一次地震,在其地震灾评工作中产生了不同于以往地震灾评的诸多问题。针对这些问题,首先给出了汶川地震灾评简况。其次,简单说明了作者参加灾评工作的日程安排。最后,对灾评工作中存在的问题,如烈度评定、生命线宏观损失、抗震设防目标、人员死亡分布等进行了探讨,并给出了几点想法和认识。     

GIS‐based modelling of soil erosion processes using the modified‐MMF (MMMF) model in a large watershed having vast agro‐climatological differences

The present study demonstrates a spatially distributed application of a field‐scale annual soil loss model, the modified‐MMF (MMMF), to a large watershed using hydrological routing techniques, remote sensing data and geospatial technologies. In this study, the MMMF model is implemented after incorporating the corrections suggested in recent literature along with appropriate modifications of the model to suit the agro‐climatological conditions prevailing in most parts of India. Sensitivity analysis carried out through an Average Linear Sensitivity approach indicates that the model outputs are highly sensitive to soil moisture (MS), bulk density (BD), effective hydraulic depth (EHD), ground cover (GC) and settling velocity for clay (VS_c). During calibration and validation, the performance evaluation statistics are mostly in the range of very good to satisfactory for both runoff and soil loss at the watershed outlet. Even spatial validation of the results of intermediate processes in the water phase and the sediment phase, although qualitative, seems to be reasonable and rational. Furthermore, the soil erosion severity analysis for different land‐uses existing in the watershed indicates that about 90% of the watershed area, especially that occupied by agricultural lands, is vulnerable to the long‐term effects of soil erosion. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新疆破坏性地震损失“盲估”方法

通过总结新疆近年来的震害预测研究成果和震害损失评估工作的实践,给出了震后损失快速评估方法－“盲估”方法。提出今后震灾评估的发展方向是建立震后趋势快速判定计算机管理系统。     

震后经济损失及人员伤亡快速预估方法

为快速了解破坏性地震发生后建筑物破坏所造成的人员伤亡和经济损失,合理投入救灾所需人、财、物,便于领导决策和指挥,提出震后经济损失和人员伤亡快速预估方法。依据地震发生的基本参数、地震地质条件等预估灾害范围、建筑物破坏程度、经济损失、人员伤亡等情况,给出地震发生早期影响尺度的快速预测结果。     

震害评估系统中的宏观经济指标的网格化技术及实现

国内当前的地震灾害应急评估系统基础数据库以具有空间面属性的乡镇级行政区为最小统计单元,乡镇人口及各类房屋建筑面积在评估时一般按照行政区面积进行了平均化处理,而未考虑实际人口分布的差异.本文采用前人在人口密度与城乡空间分布及城乡GDP分布之间的统计模型,以及基于宏观经济指标的地震灾害快速评估思路,深入探讨了以乡镇行政区为...     

1970年云南通海地震损失、救灾、重建史实与数据的再分析

1970年云南通海大地震是1949年建国以来死亡人数仅次于唐山与汶川地震的地震。由于发生在特定的历史时期,社会及媒体对地震的历史情况产生了质疑,提出了一些看法,本文针对质疑的灾害损失、救灾力度和恢复重建及相关问题,从文献、档案资料、统计数据进行调查分析,试图得出符合历史情况的结果。     

Evaporation from shallow groundwater in closed basins in the Chilean Altiplano

Abstract

The hydrological cycle in arid and semi-arid climates is highly controlled by evaporation. The correct quantification of this process is essential for improving the accuracy of water balance estimates, especially in closed basins. The objective of this paper is to characterize evaporation rates from shallow groundwater using the chamber approach in six closed basins in the Altiplano of northern Chile. Measurements were made at 49 locations with water-table depths ranging from 0.09 m to 3.3 m. Estimated daily evaporation rates appeared to be strongly related to groundwater depth and soil texture. In particular, the highest rates were recorded in areas with high groundwater tables and coarse-grained soils. Evaporation curves were derived by fitting exponential and power relationships as functions of the groundwater depths that we proposed to use in the study area. An application of these curves for the Salar de Pedernales basin produced an estimated evaporation flow of 530 L s^-1, using the average curve.

Citation Johnson, E., Yáñez, J., Ortiz, C. & Muñoz, J. (2010) Evaporation from shallow groundwater in closed basins in the Chilean Altiplano. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 624–635.