Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting

Abstract

The complexity of distributed hydrological models has led to improvements in calibration methodologies in recent years. There are various manual, automatic and hybrid methods of calibration. Most use a single objective function to calculate estimation errors. The use of multi-objective calibration improves results, since different aspects of the hydrograph may be considered simultaneously. However, the uncertainty of estimates from a hydrological model can only be taken into account by using a probabilistic approach. This paper presents a calibration method of probabilistic nature, based on the determination of probability functions that best characterize different parameters of the model. The method was applied to the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model using the Manzanares River basin in Spain as a case study. The proposed method allows us to consider the uncertainty in the model estimates by obtaining the probability distributions of flows in the flood hydrograph.

Citation Mediero, L., Garrote, L. & Martín-Carrasco, F. J. (2011) Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1129–1149.     

Variations of the magnetic field near Mars caused by magnetic crustal anomalies

The possible avenues for photoelectron transport were determined during southern hemisphere winter at Mars by using a mapping analysis of the theoretical magnetic field. Magnetic field line tracing was performed by superposing two magnetic field models: (1) magnetic field derived from a three-dimensional (3D) self-consistent quasi-neutral hybrid model which does not contain the Martian crustal magnetic anomalies and (2) a 3D map of the magnetic field associated with the magnetic anomalies based on Mars Global Surveyor magnetic field measurements. It was found that magnetic field lines connected to the nightside of the planet are mainly channeled within the optical shadow of the magnetotail whereas magnetic field lines connected to the dayside of the planet are observed to form the remainder of the magnetosphere. The simulation suggests that the crustal anomalies create “a magnetic shield” by decreasing the region near Mars which is magnetically connected to the Martian magnetosphere. The rotation of Mars causes periodic changes in magnetic connectivity, but not to qualitative changes in the overall magnetic field draping around Mars.     

露天煤矿开挖工程承压含水层井点降水数值分析

在掌握某露天煤矿水文地质条件和抽水试验成果的基础上,通过利用Modflow建立了较合理的渗流数值模型,分析了井点降水中承压含水层水位随时间的下降过程,并进行了实际分析,结果与实际观测结果吻合良好。在此基础上,开展预测研究,为进一步露天煤矿开挖降水设计提供理论依据。     

建筑垃圾填埋场周边地下水化学组分来源解析

建筑垃圾是城市市政垃圾的重要组成部分,对其堆填处理可能造成场地及周围一定范围内的地下水污染。传统观念认为,建筑垃圾中多为惰性或无害成分,对地下水影响有限,缺乏关于建筑垃圾堆填对地下水水质造成影响的研究。选取2处建筑垃圾堆填场地,通过对场地周围地下水采样分析,得到场地周边地下水化学指标空间分布特征,并利用正定矩阵因子分解法(PMF)识别研究区地下水化学组分来源,从而定量评价建筑垃圾填埋对周边地下水水质变化的贡献。结果表明,建筑垃圾填埋会显著影响周边区域地下水组分的浓度和质量,尤其是TDS、TH、Ca2+、SO42-等组分显著受到影响,填埋时间越长、填埋体量越大,影响程度越深。两场地区域范围内Na+、Ca2+、Mg2+、SO42-和TDS 5个组分或指标的空间分布整体变化趋势较一致,均表现为垃圾填埋场附近沿地下水流下游方向的点位浓度较高,其他点位浓度较低,验证了建筑垃圾填埋对区域地下水质量的影响。PMF来源解析确定两场地周边地下水化学组分来源有建筑垃圾填埋、岩石风化溶解、水岩相互作用和农业活动,在场地一来源贡献占比分别为29.2%、21.6%、24.2%和15.1%,在场地二贡献占比分别为15.6%、23.2%、28.4%和18.2%。两场地周围地下水质量受人类活动影响程度较深,人为污染源正在成为地下水中离子组分的重要来源。     

Modeling fluvial response to in‐stream woody vegetation: implications for stream corridor restoration

River restoration and bank stabilization programs often use vegetation for improving stream corridor habitat, aesthetic and function. Yet no study has examined the use of managed vegetation plantings to transform a straight, degraded stream corridor into an ecologically functional meandering channel. Experimental data collected using a distorted Froude‐scaled flume analysis show that channel expansion and widening, thalweg meandering and riffle and pool development are possible using discrete plantings of rigid, emergent vegetation, and the magnitudes of these adjustments depend on the shape of the vegetation zone and the density of the vegetation. These experimental results were verified and validated using a recently developed numerical model, and model output was then used to discuss mechanistically how rivers respond to the introduction of in‐stream woody vegetation. Finally, a hybrid method of meander design is proposed herein where managed vegetation plantings are used to trigger or force the desired morphologic response, transforming a straight, degraded reach into a more functional meandering corridor. It is envisioned that such numerical models could become the primary tool for designing future stream restoration programs involving vegetation and assessing the long‐term stability of such activities. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

顾及有效角动量与IGS超快解数据的极移预报方法

极移高精度预报对卫星实时定轨、深空探测器导航等应用至关重要.本文提出了一种联合有效角动量(Effective Angular Momentum, EAM)与国际全球卫星导航系统服务组织(International GNSS Service, IGS)提供的超快解数据进行极移预报的方法.该方法基于IGS超快解数据得到的极移第1天预报值, 对引入EAM得到的极移预报结果进行校正, 获得联合预报值.首先, 基于LS(Least Squares)+AR(Auto-Regressive)模型实现了引入EAM的极移预报, 相对国际地球自转与参考系统服务组织(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的公报A数据, 在超短期(第1~10天)预报跨度可以得到更高精度的极移预报结果, 其中大气和海洋角动量发挥了主要作用.其次, 鉴于IGS超快解数据精度高、更新快的特点, 以IGS超快解为基础数据, 基于LS+AR模型可以得到极移第1天预报值, 其精度显著优于IERS公报A的极移第1天预报值.最后, 利用第1天预报值对顾及有效角动量的预报结果进行校正获得了联合预报值, 进一步提高了超短期极移预报精度(尤其是第1~5天).2020年7月24日—2022年1月30日间的联合预报结果表明: 第1~20天的预报值总体优于IERS公报A的预报值.其中, 第1~10天的预报精度显著提升, 在预报第1天, X、Y方向预报值相对公报A预报值的精度提升分别可达39.5%~62.3%和24.5%~51.9%;在预报第10天, 相对公报A预报值的精度提升分别可达28.0%~28.9%和21.9%~23.4%.

     

Some elements of mathematical information theory and total inversion algorithm applied to travel time inversion

The total inversion algorithm and some elements of Mathematical Information Theory are used in the treatment of travel-time data belonging to a seismic refraction experiment from the southern segment (Sardinia Channel) of the European Geotraverse Project. The inversion algorithm allows us to improve a preliminary propagating model obtained by means of usual trial and error procedure and to quantify the resolution degree of parameters defining the crust and upper mantle of such a model. Concepts related to Mathematical Information Theory detect some seismic profiles of the refraction experiment which give the most homogeneous coverage of the model in terms of number of trajectories crossing it. Finally, the efficiency of the inversion procedure is quantified and the uncertainties regarding knowledge of different parts of the model are also evaluated.     

三维F－K域DMO方法及应用效果

在常速情况下,从三维时距方程出发,通过倾角代换,将三维倾角时差分裂为两个正交方向上的二维倾角时差,然后在这两个正交方向上分别做一次二维倾角时差校正,便可达到三维倾角时差校正的目的．应用实例表明这种三维ＤＭＯ分裂方法是切实有效的．     

天山及邻区Vening Meinesz均衡重力异常特征及其动力学意义

本文基于Vening Meinesz区域均衡模型,通过试验不同参数计算Vening Meinesz均衡补偿深度,将其与CRUST1.0模型给出的莫霍面深度进行拟合,得到适应于天山及邻区的平均补偿深度、"地区性指标"以及区域补偿半径.结合地球重力场模型EIGEN-6C4与地形数据,利用球冠体积分方法进行地形效应、沉积层效应计算和均衡校正,得到了研究区的Vening Meinesz均衡重力异常.结果显示天山及邻区的均衡重力异常幅值在-110~120 mGal之间,表明了天山及周边盆地岩石圈所处于的均衡状态,同时揭示了研究区的壳幔密度分布特征.天山、塔里木盆地、准噶尔盆地等块体的地壳垂向形变可能部分地由均衡调整引起,且均衡调整趋势与地面形变测量结果相契合.通过对均衡重力异常成因的解释,从地壳均衡角度分析了该地区复杂的构造背景及其新生代以来的演化历程.