Time series analysis of lava flux

We have applied time series analytical techniques to the flux of lava from an extrusive eruption. Tilt data acting as a proxy for flux are used in a case study of the May–August 1997 period of the eruption at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We justify the use of such a proxy by simple calibratory arguments. Three techniques of time series analysis are employed: spectral, spectrogram and wavelet methods. In addition to the well-known ~9-hour periodicity shown by these data, a previously unknown periodic flux variability is revealed by the wavelet analysis as a 3-day cycle of frequency modulation during June–July 1997, though the physical mechanism responsible is not clear. Such time series analysis has potential for other lava flux proxies at other types of volcanoes.     

Swelling of a lava plug associated with a Vulcanian eruption at Sakurajima Volcano,Japan, as revealed by infrasound record: case study of the eruption on January 2, 2007

In order to clarify the time relation of the expansion of a gas pocket and failure of its overlying plug of lava during Vulcanian eruptions, infrasound records and video images of the Vulcanian eruption that occurred at Sakurajima volcano on January 2, 2007 were analyzed with respect to their origin times. Weak (≤3 Pa) and slowly increasing air pressure preceded the impulsive compression phase by 0.25–0.32 s, and a longer-period rarefaction phase of infrasound waves was recognized at all microphone stations. The velocity of the compression phase was assumed to be supersonic (ca. 400 m/s) up to 850 m above the crater bottom from other recent explosions. On the other hand, the propagation velocity of the preceding weak signal was regarded to be similar to the air sound velocity because the lack of impulsiveness is unlikely to be related to the main compression phase. Therefore, the estimated origin time of the main compression phase was delayed by 0.5–0.7 s from the preceding phase. The origin time of the preceding phase coincided with the onset of the isotropic expansion process of the pressurized gas pocket, which was obtained by the waveform inversion of the explosion earthquake. In contrast, the origin time of the main impulsive phase coincided with the time when the expansion rate reached its peak. This observation suggests that the volumetric increase of the gas pocket caused swelling of the surface of the crater bottom and its subsequent failure. When the expansion velocity exceeded a threshold level, the main impulsive compression phase radiated with a high velocity by the sudden releases of the pressurized gases. The volumetric change at the source was estimated to be 280–560 m³ from the preceding phase of the infrasound. This volume change indicates that the vertical displacement of the swelling ground was on the order of 1.0 m, assuming the radius of the lava plug was ca. 10 m.     

Color-change processes of a plinian pumice and experimental constraints of color-change kinetics in air of an obsidian

Colors of plinian pumices were measured by spectrocolorimetry, and their quantitative color parameters in the L*a*b* color space were determined. A series of heating experiments of obsidian was conducted to simulate the color-change processes of rhyolitic glasses. In these experiments, following three stages of color-change processes were observed. Stage I showed a rapid b* (yellowishness) increase associated with fast dehydration controlled by water diffusivity (D _water). In stage II, a* (reddishness) increase was accompanied by Fe²⁺ decrease. Both a* increase and Fe²⁺ decrease can be simulated by a diffusion model. Obtained diffusivity D _oxidation were about two orders of magnitude smaller than D _water . The a*-value increase after the oxidation in stage III appeared to be quasi-linear with time, indicating the zeroth order reaction corresponding to the formation of hematite-like structures in rhyolitic glasses. The diffusion-limited a* increase model in stage II was applied to a natural plinian pumice fall unit to evaluate time periods of color-change processes through oxidation by air of fragmented rhyolitic materials.     

Geology of a complex kimberlite pipe (K2 pipe,Venetia Mine,South Africa): insights into conduit processes during explosive ultrabasic eruptions

K2 is a steep-sided kimberlite pipe with a complex internal geology. Geological mapping, logging of drillcore and petrographic studies indicate that it comprises layered breccias and pyroclastic rocks of various grain sizes, lithic contents and internal structures. The pipe comprises two geologically distinct parts: K2 West is a layered sequence of juvenile- and lithic-rich breccias, which dip 20–45° inwards, and K2 East consists of a steep-sided pipe-like body filled with massive volcaniclastic kimberlite nested within the K2 pipe. The layered sequence in K2 West is present to > 900 m below present surface and is interpreted as a sequence of pyroclastic rocks generated by explosive eruptions and mass-wasting breccias generated by rock fall and sector collapse of the pipe walls: both processes occurred in tandem during the infill of the pipe. Several breccia lobes extend across the pipe and are truncated by the steep contact with K2 East. Dense pyroclastic rocks within the layered sequence are interpreted as welded deposits. K2 East represents a conduit that was blasted through the layered breccia sequence at a late stage in the eruption. This phase may have involved fluidisation of trapped pyroclasts, with loss of fine particles and comminution of coarse clasts. We conclude that the K2 kimberlite pipe was emplaced in several distinct stages that consisted of an initial explosive enlargement, followed by alternating phases of accumulation and ejection.     

Improved prediction and tracking of volcanic ash clouds

During the past 30 years, more than 100 airplanes have inadvertently flown through clouds of volcanic ash from erupting volcanoes. Such encounters have caused millions of dollars in damage to the aircraft and have endangered the lives of tens of thousands of passengers. In a few severe cases, total engine failure resulted when ash was ingested into turbines and coating turbine blades. These incidents have prompted the establishment of cooperative efforts by the International Civil Aviation Organization and the volcanological community to provide rapid notification of eruptive activity, and to monitor and forecast the trajectories of ash clouds so that they can be avoided by air traffic. Ash-cloud properties such as plume height, ash concentration, and three-dimensional ash distribution have been monitored through non-conventional remote sensing techniques that are under active development. Forecasting the trajectories of ash clouds has required the development of volcanic ash transport and dispersion models that can calculate the path of an ash cloud over the scale of a continent or a hemisphere. Volcanological inputs to these models, such as plume height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration, ash distribution with altitude, and grain-size distribution, must be assigned in real time during an event, often with limited observations. Databases and protocols are currently being developed that allow for rapid assignment of such source parameters. In this paper, we summarize how an interdisciplinary working group on eruption source parameters has been instigating research to improve upon the current understanding of volcanic ash cloud characterization and predictions. Improved predictions of ash cloud movement and air fall will aid in making better hazard assessments for aviation and for public health and air quality.     

Volcanic plumes and wind: Jetstream interaction examples and implications for air traffic

Volcanic plumes interact with the wind at all scales. On smaller scales, wind affects local eddy structure; on larger scales, wind shapes the entire plume trajectory. The polar jets or jetstreams are regions of high [generally eastbound] winds that span the globe from 30 to 60° in latitude, centered at an altitude of about 10 km. They can be hundreds of kilometers wide, but as little as 1 km in thickness. Core windspeeds are up to 130 m/s. Modern transcontinental and transoceanic air routes are configured to take advantage of the jetstream. Eastbound commercial jets can save both time and fuel by flying within it; westbound aircraft generally seek to avoid it.Using both an integral model of plume motion that is formulated within a plume-centered coordinate system (BENT) as well as the Active Tracer High-resolution Atmospheric Model (ATHAM), we have calculated plume trajectories and rise heights under different wind conditions. Model plume trajectories compare well with the observed plume trajectory of the Sept 30/Oct 1, 1994, eruption of Kliuchevskoi Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia, for which measured maximum windspeed was 30–40 m/s at about 12 km. Tephra fall patterns for some prehistoric eruptions of Avachinsky Volcano, Kamchatka, and Inyo Craters, CA, USA, are anomalously elongated and inconsistent with simple models of tephra dispersal in a constant windfield. The Avachinsky deposit is modeled well by BENT using a windspeed that varies with height.Two potentially useful conclusions can be made about air routes and volcanic eruption plumes under jetstream conditions. The first is that by taking advantage of the jetstream, aircraft are flying within an airspace that is also preferentially occupied by volcanic eruption clouds and particles. The second is that, because eruptions with highly variable mass eruption rate pump volcanic particles into the jetstream under these conditions, it is difficult to constrain the tephra grain size distribution and mass loading present within a downwind volcanic plume or cloud that has interacted with the jetstream. Furthermore, anomalously large particles and high mass loadings could be present within the cloud, if it was in fact formed by an eruption with a high mass eruption rate. In terms of interpretation of tephra dispersal patterns, the results suggest that extremely elongated isopach or isopleth patterns may often be the result of eruption into the jetstream, and that estimation of the mass eruption rate from these elongated patterns should be considered cautiously.     

Sumisu volcano,Izu-Bonin arc,Japan: site of a silicic caldera-forming eruption from a small open-ocean island

Sumisu volcano was the site of an eruption during 30–60 ka that introduced ∼48–50 km³ of rhyolite tephra into the open-ocean environment at the front of the Izu-Bonin arc. The resulting caldera is 8 × 10 km in diameter, has steep inner walls 550–780 m high, and a floor averaging 900 m below sea level. In the course of five research cruises to the Sumisu area, a manned submersible, two ROVs, a Deep-Tow camera sled, and dredge samples were used to study the caldera and surrounding areas. These studies were augmented by newly acquired single-channel seismic profiles and multi-beam seafloor swath-mapping. Caldera-wall traverses show that pre-caldera eruptions built a complex of overlapping dacitic and basaltic edifices, that eventually grew above sea level to form an island about 200 m high. The caldera-forming eruption began on the island and probably produced a large eruption column. We interpret that prodigious rates of tephra fallback overwhelmed the Sumisu area, forming huge rafts of floating pumice, choking the nearby water column with hyperconcentrations of slowly settling tephra, and generating pyroclastic gravity currents of water-saturated pumice that traveled downslope along the sea floor. Thick, compositionally similar pumice deposits encountered in ODP Leg 126 cores 70 km to the south could have been deposited by these gravity currents. The caldera-rim, presently at ocean depths of 100–400 m, is mantled by an extensive layer of coarse dense lithic clasts, but syn-caldera pumice deposits are only thin and locally preserved. The paucity of syn-caldera pumice could be due to the combined effects of proximal non-deposition and later erosion by strong ocean currents. Post-caldera edifice instability resulted in the collapse of a 15° sector of the eastern caldera rim and the formation of bathymetrically conspicuous wavy slump structures that disturb much of the volcano’s surface.     

Persistent activity and violent strombolian eruptions at Vesuvius between 1631 and 1944

During the period 1631–1944, Vesuvius was in persistent activity with alternating mild strombolian explosions, quiet effusive eruptions, and violent strombolian eruptions. The major difference between the predominant style of activity and the violent strombolian stages is the effusion rate. The lava effusion rate during major eruptions was in the range 20–100 m³/s, higher than during mild activity and quiet effusion (0.1–1 m³/s). The products erupted during the mild activity and major paroxysms have different degree of crystallization. Highly porphyritic lava flows are slowly erupted during years-long period of mild activity. This activity is fed by a magma accumulating at shallow depth within the volcanic edifice. Conversely, during the major paroxysms, a fast lava flow precedes the eruption of a volatile-rich, crystal-poor magma. We show that the more energetic eruptions are fed by episodic, multiple arrival of discrete batches of magma rising faster and not degassing during the ascent. The rapidly ascending magma pushes up the liquid residing in the shallow reservoir and eventually reaches the surface with its full complement of volatiles, producing kilometer-high lava fountains. Rapid drainage of the shallow reservoir occasionally caused small caldera collapses. The major eruptions act to unplug the upper part of the feeding system, erupting the cooling and crystallizing magma. This pattern of activity lasted for 313 y, but with a progressive decrease in the number of more energetic eruptions. As a consequence, a cooling plug blocked the volcano until it eventually prevented the eruption of new magma. The yearly probability of having at least one violent strombolian eruption has decreased from 0.12 to 0.10 from 1944 to 2007, but episodic seismic crises since 1979 may be indicative of new episodic intrusions of magma batches.     

Mechanism of explosive eruption revealed by geophysical observations at the Sakurajima,Suwanosejima and Semeru volcanoes

A common sequence of phenomena associated with volcanic explosions is extracted based on seismic and ground deformation observations at 3 active volcanoes in Japan and Indonesia. Macroscopic inflation-related ground deformations are detected prior to individual explosions, while deflations are observed during eruptions. Precursory inflation occurs 5 min to several hours before eruption at the Sakurajima volcano, but just 1–2 min at Suwanosejima and 3–30 min at the Semeru volcano. The sequence commences with minor contraction, which is detected by extensometers 1.5 min before eruption at Sakurajima, as a dilatant first motion of the explosion earthquakes 0.2–0.3 s before surface explosions at Suwanosejima, and as downward tilt 4–5 s prior to eruption at the Semeru volcano. The sequence is detected for explosive eruptions with > 0.1 μrad tilt change at Sakurajima, 90% at Suwanosejima and 75% at Semeru volcanoes. It is inferred that the minor contraction is caused by a volume and pressure decrease due to the release of gas from a pocket at the top of the conduit as the gas pressure exceeds the strength of the confining plug. The subsequent violent expansion may be triggered by sudden outgassing of the water-saturated magma induced by the decrease in confining pressure.