Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions

Most conceptual rainfall–runoff models use as input spatially averaged rainfall fields which are typically associated with significant errors that affect the model outcome. In this study, it was hypothesised that a simple spatially and temporally averaged event-dependent rainfall multiplier can account for errors in the rainfall input. The potentials and limitations of this lumped multiplier approach were explored by evaluating the effects of multipliers on the accuracy and precision of the predictive distributions. Parameter sets found to be behavioural across a range of different flood events were assumed to be a good representation of the catchment dynamics and were used to identify rainfall multipliers for each of the individual events. An effect of the parameter sets on identified multipliers was found; however, it was small compared to the differences between events. Accounting for event-dependent multipliers improved the reliability of the predictions. At the cost of a small decrease in precision, the distribution of identified multipliers for past events can be used to account for possible rainfall errors when predicting future events. By using behavioural parameter sets to identify rainfall multipliers, the method offers a simple and computationally efficient way to address rainfall errors in hydrological modelling.     

一种卫星钟差精度评估方法

GNSS观测量测量的是测站与卫星间的相对时间延迟,卫星钟差求解的是相对于基准钟的相对钟差,因此卫星钟差的精度评估方法不同于其他GNSS产品。分析了卫星钟差的精度评估方法,采用消除卫星钟系统偏差的方法进行钟差精度的评估,得到的各产品的精度评定结果与各产品公布的钟差精度基本一致,证明了此方法的有效性。     

An optimized use of limited ground based topographic data for river applications

A prime requirement for hydrological applications,such as sediment budgeting or numerical modelling,is that produced Digital Terrain Models(DTMs)accurately represent the shape of landforms,especially for river reaches where data are not homogeneous.DTM error is a function of data point measurement accuracy and density and also of the field survey strategy when limited amounts of data will be acquired.This paper aims to advance the importance of the field survey strategy for the specific,but common cases,where only limited topographic data will be available.This methodology is based on the idea that any feature can be properly described by a set of cross sections and breaklines describing both main and secondary directions of the flow.Then,a longitudinal linear interpolation can be applied to the defined homogeneous zones.This morphologically oriented(MO)method that includes data acquisition strategy and interpolation,was validated using a reference DTM derived from LiDAR measurements.An estimation of the uncertainties also is suggested based on the distance of the nearest point and the local slope using a geographically weighted regression.The proposed MO method is typically applicable to Alpine river reaches characterized by multiple channels that may always be underwater and not navigable such as an alternate bar system with secondary and transverse channels.     

SS-Y型伸缩仪观测问题分析及优化方法探讨

SS-Y型伸缩仪在我国地震洞体形变监测台网中已安装使用多年。对地球固体潮观测而言,仪器观测资料精度高且长期稳定性较好,但从地震预测的观测需求来看,SS-Y型伸缩仪仍然存在很多不足,如高频信息缺失、抗干扰能力较弱、存在格值误差、自校验能力较差等。对伸缩仪存在的问题进行分析,并提出一种超宽频带短基线伸缩仪的设计思路,以期为后续新仪器的研制提供理论依据。     

Using model error in response history analysis to evaluate component calibration methods

This research is part of a larger effort to better understand and quantify the epistemic model uncertainty in dynamic response-history simulations. This paper focuses on how calibration methods influence model uncertainty. Structural models in earthquake engineering are typically built up from independently calibrated component models. During component calibration, engineers often use experimental component response under quasi-static loading to find parameters that minimize the error in structural response under dynamic loading. Since the calibration and the simulation environments are different, if a calibration method wants to provide optimal parameters for simulation, it has to focus on features of the component response that are important from the perspective of global structural behavior. Relevance describes how efficiently a calibration method can focus on such important features. A framework of virtual experiments and a methodology is proposed to evaluate the influence of calibration relevance on model error in simulations. The evaluation is demonstrated through a case study with buckling-restrained braced frames (BRBF). Two calibration methods are compared in the case study. The first, highly relevant calibration method is based on stiffness and hardening characteristics of braces; the second, less relevant calibration method is based on the axial force response of braces. The highly relevant calibration method consistently identified the preferable parameter sets. In contrast, the less relevant calibration method showed poor to mediocre performance. The framework and methodology presented here are not limited to BRBF. They have the potential to facilitate and systematize the improvement of component-model calibration methods for any structural system.     

地动噪声RMS值计算方法的适用性及误差概率分析

对比两种计算RMS值的方法,结合误差概率统计给出结果的误差概率分布。在使用有限脉冲响应（FIR）带通滤波器进行滤波并计算RMS值的过程中,滤波器窗口函数和阶数是影响计算结果误差的主要因素,其中阶数的作用更大。通过计算功率谱密度（PSD）反算RMS值的误差主要受pwelch函数的窗口函数类型、窗口长度及重叠率等参数影响,其中窗口长度作用更大。从同等误差水平的概率分布看,在合理设置参数的前提下,使用PSD反算RMS值的方法更优。     

病态数据处理的岭估计迭代解法

岭估计通常无法单次计算使得均方误差达到最小,因此提出岭估计迭代法。将岭估计参数估值代入平差模型,更新观测向量,再次用岭估计法求解参数。依此迭代,每次迭代计算方差和偏差,当均方误差达到最小或收敛时终止。模拟算例验证结果表明,该方法有效、可行。     

GF-4卫星不同成像状态下影像定位误差特性分析

高分四号（GF-4）卫星作为我国高分对地观测系统中一颗高分辨率面阵成像的静止轨道卫星,其在不同成像状态下的影像几何定位精度一直是科研人员和应用部门所关注的。本文以谷歌地球数据为几何参考,通过对比GF-4卫星影像和谷歌地球影像上同名点位置信息,分析了GF-4卫星在凝视、俯仰、滚动成像状态下的影像定位特性。结果表明,单幅影像内部均出现了明显的系统误差,凝视成像过程中同一点位的影像定位误差波动较小,俯仰/滚动姿态影像定位误差与俯仰角/滚动角成正比关系。该结论可为地面数据处理部门和用户在数据校正和应用时提供参考。     

三维激光测量技术在大型复杂钢结构工程建造中的应用

以山东第一高楼云鼎大厦建造过程为例,对三维激光扫描技术应用于大型复杂钢结构工程建造中的关键技术进行了研究。通过对大型复杂钢结构部件进行三维激光扫描,并与BIM预制模型比对,事先检测钢构件加工误差,提出了大型复杂钢结构部件误差检测关键技术流程,实现了高精度特征误差统计,为大型复杂钢结构工程智能建造提供了有效先进的检测、监测手段,具有较大的借鉴及实用价值。