中美两套西北太平洋热带气旋资料集的差异分析

利用中国气象局(CMA)和美国联合台风预警中心(JTWC)两套西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)资料集,对比分析了两者在1951—2005年TC定位和定强方面的差异。结果表明:两套资料定位差在20世纪50年代至60年代初及1988年至90年代差异较大;地理分布上主要是在TC登陆后所在的地区及高纬度洋面上差别较大。定强方面,CMA资料在20世纪50年代及60年代末至70年代初TC强度明显大于JTWC资料,JTWC资料则在80年代末以后的时段TC强度显著大于CMA资料;地理分布上定强差大的区域在80年代以前分布较零散,之后随着JTWC资料定强增大,其在西北太平洋洋面上强度显著偏强,CMA资料同期则在亚洲大陆沿岸部分地区强度较强。进一步分析显示,两套资料集之间的差异和TC观测技术的变化之间存在密切关系。在气象卫星使用以前(1951年至60年代初),以及美国空军飞机观测终止之后(1988年以后),两者无论是在定位还是定强上都存在很大差异;而两者定强差最小的时期(1973—1987年)则正好对应了飞机观测和Dvorak技术在TC观测上同时被使用的时段。两套西北太平洋TC资料集总体差异明显,却又各具特点,目前很难判断哪一套资料集更加可靠。但对于影响中国TC,CMA资料集具有明显优势。     

Limpets as prey: Lipophrys pholis choice for size

Patellid limpets are key species on rocky shores, structuring intertidal assemblages through their grazing. Their role as prey for fish is, however, often overlooked in studies of intertidal ecosystem functioning. The shanny Lipophrys pholis is a common predator of limpets on rocky shores in Northern Europe and, in this study, we examined the characteristics of its predation on limpets based on prey size. The limpet size range that adult L. pholis (10–12.5 cm) can eat was examined in the laboratory using Patella depressa in 0.2 cm classes, varying between 0.5 cm and 3.0 cm in maximum shell length. There was a limpet size refuge above 1.8 cm, while all smaller sizes were readily consumed by the shanny. The predator attacking behaviour was also examined and found to vary with prey size. Limpets up to 0.8 cm were crushed by the jaw‐constricting force and eaten whole, whereas larger prey were prised from the substratum and the body subsequently separated from the shell. To examine whether there was a L. pholis preference for P. depressa size, a two‐stage laboratory experiment was done using two size classes defined as small (0.7–0.8 cm maximum shell length) and large (1.5–1.6 cm maximum shell length). In the first stage, the predator was given each limpet size class separately. In the second stage, the fish was given a choice between the two classes. Lipophrys pholis was shown to have a preference for the large size class (1.5–1.6 cm). The average number of limpets consumed by the shanny was examined for the duration of one high‐tide typical of the central region of Portugal (≈ 4 h). On average, approximately five limpets (up to an eight limpet maximum) were consumed. The present study shows that L. pholis has a feeding preference based on limpet size, which suggests that the limpet population structure and intra‐ and inter‐specific interactions may be influenced by the shanny predation.     

2006年温州珊溪水库地震序列特征

通过分析2006年2月温州珊溪水库地震序列的时空强分布特征,得到该序列具有①频度高、衰减慢、持续时间长;②震中分布集中且呈北西向展布;③震源浅;④各台站P波初动符号基本保持不变;⑤较大地震发生前,空间上出现空段,时间上表现为“增强—平静—发震”;⑥h值先变小后变大,b值缓慢变大等特点。结合地震应急时的预报实践,重点研究了地震趋势判断中比较有效的指标或参量,希望能为以后珊溪水库地震趋势的预报提供借鉴。     

工程结构三维疲劳裂纹最大应力强度因子计算

介绍了裂纹的类型、裂纹尖端应力场的奇异性。以一维问题为例,推导论证了奇异单元能够很好的反映裂纹尖端应力场的奇异性。应力强度因子一般表达式表明应力强度因子与载荷呈线性关系,并依赖于物体和裂纹的几何形状和尺寸。本文借助大型通用有限元软件ANSYS,采用位移外插法计算了三维表面裂纹前沿不同位置处的应力强度因子,并与《应力强度因子手册》基于实验的理论公式计算结果相比较。结果表明:有限元结果与理论解误差较小,裂纹最深处应力强度因子最大。     

云南澜沧江中南段多金属成矿谱系分析

基于GIS空间分析技术,对云南澜沧江中南段多金属矿床的赋矿地层时间谱系、容矿构造空间谱系和矿床成因谱系进行了较系统的分析.研究表明,下-中元古界、三叠系、泥盆系、二叠系是本区最重要的赋矿层位,有两个聚矿期和多个时代地层含矿的特点,不同时代地层的含矿性具有多样性和专属型特征,元古宙火山沉积为主的建造是铁-铜、钨-锡矿为主的赋矿层位,晚古生代-中生代早期是沉积、裂谷火山活动强烈时期,金、铜、铅、锌、银、汞、锑、钨、锡多金属矿床高度聚集.自东向西为中生代坳陷区金、铜、镍成矿带,思茅-龙洞河晚古生代-三叠纪沉积盆地铜、铅、锌、银成矿带,岩浆弧地块钨、锡、铅-锌、铁成矿带,浅变质岩基底铅-锌-银、铁成矿带,被动边缘活动带金、铅-锌-银、锡成矿区和保山-镇康微地块铅-锌、铜、铁、汞成矿带,构成了容矿构造空间谱系.全区多金属矿床有沉积、沉积改造、岩浆-变质热液、火山沉积-火山热液四大成矿谱系,14种成矿类型,铜多金属、铅-锌-银、锡-钨矿床是研究区最具找矿前景的优势矿种.     

Investigation into the daily precipitation variability in the Yangtze River Delta,China

In this article, by using the daily precipitation data measured at 58 meteorological stations, spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation including zero rainfall values (called “precipitation”) and without zero rainfall values (called “rain”) and four precipitation extrema (P₀, P₂₀, P₅₀, and P₁₀₀ representing the daily precipitation with the magnitude smaller than 0.1 mm, bigger than 20 mm, 50 mm, and 100 mm per day, respectively) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) during 1958–2007 were analyzed, and the effects of urbanization were further investigated. Results indicate that (i) differing from the downward trends in 1958–1985, daily precipitation and rain in 1986–2007 show slowly downward trends in the mid YRD but show upward trends in the northern and southern YRD. (ii) Spatial and temporal variability of the rain is more complex than daily precipitation. Both of them become smaller but show more obvious fluctuations in 1986–2007. (iii) Urbanizations cause not only the urban rainfall island problem but also more obvious fluctuations of rain intensity in the mid YRD, reflecting more uncertainty of daily precipitation variability. (iv) Urbanizations have little effects on the variability of P₀ and P₁₀₀ but cause notable increases of P₂₀ and P₅₀. (v) The spatial variability of daily precipitation and precipitation extrema in 1958–1985 clearly shows a breakpoint at 30°20′N latitude, but the breakpoint disappears afterward because of the effects of urbanization. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A generalized conditional intensity measure approach and holistic ground‐motion selection

A generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach is proposed for use in the holistic selection of ground motions for any form of seismic response analysis. The essence of the method is the construction of the multivariate distribution of any set of ground‐motion intensity measures conditioned on the occurrence of a specific ground‐motion intensity measure (commonly obtained from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). The approach therefore allows any number of ground‐motion intensity measures identified as important in a particular seismic response problem to be considered. A holistic method of ground‐motion selection is also proposed based on the statistical comparison, for each intensity measure, of the empirical distribution of the ground‐motion suite with the ‘target’ GCIM distribution. A simple procedure to estimate the magnitude of potential bias in the results of seismic response analyses when the ground‐motion suite does not conform to the GCIM distribution is also demonstrated. The combination of these three features of the approach make it entirely holistic in that: any level of complexity in ground‐motion selection for any seismic response analysis can be exercised; users explicitly understand the simplifications made in the selected suite of ground motions; and an approximate estimate of any bias associated with such simplifications is obtained. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Palaeoflood activity and climate change over the last 1400 years recorded by lake sediments in the north‐west European Alps

A high‐resolution sedimentological and geochemical study of a high‐altitude proglacial lake (Lake Blanc, Aiguilles Rouges, 2352 m a.s.l.) revealed 195 turbidites, 190 of which are related to flood events over the last 1400 years. We used the coarsest sediment fraction of each turbidite as a proxy for the intensity of each flood event. Because most flood events at this locality are triggered by localized summer convective precipitation events, the reconstructed sedimentary record reveals changes in the frequency and intensity of such events over the last millennium. Comparisons with other temperature, palaeohydrological and glacier reconstructions in the region suggest that the most intense events occurred during the warmest periods, i.e. during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (AD 800–1300) and the current period of global warming. On a multi‐decadal time scale, almost all the flood frequency peaks seem to correspond to warmer periods, whereas multi‐centennial variations in flood frequency appear to follow the regional precipitation pattern. Consequently, this new Alpine flood record provides further evidence of a link between climate warming and an increase in the frequency and intensity of flooding on a multi‐decadal time scale, whereas the centennial variability in flood frequencies is related to regional precipitation patterns. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Re‐establishment of soil water repellency after destruction by intense burning in a Mediterranean heathland (SW Spain)

Soil water repellency has been conventionally considered as a fire‐induced effect, but an increasing number of studies have suggested that natural background repellency occurs in many soil types, and many of them have suggested that water repellency can be re‐established over time after being destroyed. An experimental fire was conducted to study changes of the soil surface during the first 18 months following intense burning. The main objectives of this paper are as follows: (1) to investigate in situ water repellency changes at three soil depths (0, 2 and 4 cm) immediately after burning; (2) to evaluate the medium‐term evolution of water repellency under field conditions; and (3) to outline the main hydrological consequences of these changes. Also, different water repellency tests (water drop penetration time, ethanol percentage test (EPT) and contact angle (CA) between water drops and the soil surface) were carried out for comparison purposes. Field experiments showed that soil water repellency was partly destroyed after intense burning. Changes were relatively strong at the soil surface, but diminished progressively with depth. Levels of water repellency were practically re‐established 18 months after burning. This suggests that water repellency in the studied area is not necessarily a consequence of fire, but can instead be a natural attribute. Finally, although limited in time, destruction of soil water repellency has important consequences for runoff flow generation and soil loss rates, and, indirectly, for water quality. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

宽窄相间河道水流紊动特性试验研究

为了探索宽窄相间河道的水流紊动特性，以西南地区宝兴河上游宽窄相间河段为研究对象，基于室内概化模型试验，采用多普勒声学流速仪（ADV）测量了室内模型典型断面上的三维瞬时流速，分析典型断面上的纵向时均流速、紊动强度、雷诺切应力和紊动能的分布规律。试验结果显示：宽窄相间水槽中，扩散段边壁的紊动强度大于中心区域的紊动强度，最大值位于0.2倍水深处；扩散段两侧坡脚处紊动能最大；侧壁区的平面和立面雷诺切应力最大值出现在扩散段内，中心区域最大雷诺切应力位于两槽间的中间断面处；扩散段内水流紊乱，两侧出现旋涡和涡脱，易造成侧壁侵蚀加强，引起河道拓宽。深入分析了宽窄相间河道水流的紊动特性，可为山区河流治理和自然灾害防治提供参考。