广州城市化进程中郊区农民迁移意愿分析

以广州市10村为例,采用因子分析法对郊区农民的迁移意愿进行分析.结果表明,在城市化进程中,郊区农民进城的意愿不强,小城镇和卫星城是主要的拟迁目的地.因子分析发现,农民愿意进城的主要动因是城乡预期收入、失地压力、城乡预期生活收益、养老和望子成龙的心理,而乡土情结和小农心理、城乡意识淡泊、预期就业风险和搬迁成本、预期生计成本、农村既得权益等则是阻碍农民进城的主要动因.推进城市化的政策制定应充分考虑影响农民迁移意愿的因素.     

欠发达农区外出务工规模及影响因素分析

根据对河南省农区十村11251 户农户的入户调查资料,认为农民外出务工的数量与规模是经济因素、家庭 因素和环境因素综合作用的结果。多元回归模型显示：①外出务工经济收益与成本、家庭人口状况、农户家庭经营 地、农户家庭生活性支出等正向影响农户外出务工的规模;②农区家庭劳动力文化状况中,初中及以下学历人数正 向影响农区外出务工的规模,高中及以上学历人数负向影响农区外出务工的规模;③环境因素中,经济水平因子对 农区外出务工规模的影响是正向的,地形、通达性和土地类型等三个因子对农区外出务工规模的影响是负向的。     

资本禀赋、城市环境对流动人口机会型创业的影响研究

在“大众创业、万众创新”的时代背景下,流动人口机会型创业的发生机制是亟待深入研究的问题。论文通过关注个体资本禀赋和城市环境2个层面因素,对比跨省、省内跨市和市内跨县3类不同范围的流动群体,剖析了中国城市流动人口机会型创业的影响机制。结果表明：(1)中国城市流动人口的总体机会型创业率较低,但跨省流动人口的创业率高于省内跨市和市内跨县流动人口;(2)不同资本禀赋对3类流动人口机会型创业产生了差异化影响。社会资本与经济资本之间存在互补关系,随着流动范围的扩大,社会资本对流动人口机会型创业的影响不断增强,经济资本的影响则逐渐减弱;(3)城市环境解释了10%～20%的流动人口机会型创业决策变异,流动范围越大,流动人口对外在环境的变化越敏感,尤其劳动力市场分割状况显著影响了跨省流动人口的创业决策。此外,个体资本禀赋与城市环境的相互作用对机会型创业的影响同时存在着负向和正向2种效应。针对不同流动范围人口机会型创业的影响机制及其差异性的探讨,可为完善城市创业支持体系提供科学依据。     

关中地区全新世大暖期的土壤与气候变迁

资料表明,关中地区全新世大暖期土壤中的CaCO₃受到了明显淋溶,部分土壤的CaCO₃淀积层脱离了粘化层,发育了淋溶性土壤所特有的风化淋滤母质层;该层土壤发生了明显的化学粘化作用,并有Fe₂O₃和 Al₂O₃形成以及亚热带土壤所具有的淀积型红色光性粘土胶膜发育;粘土胶膜含量明显大于淋溶褐土而与黄棕壤接近。由此得出,全新世中期成壤作用比现今显著强,土壤应为发育弱的黄棕壤,当时气候比今明显暖湿;在全新世中期,来自东南的夏季降水气团能够较频繁地到达该区,秦岭已失去温带与亚热带气候分界线的作用,其南北两侧均为亚热带气候。     

汶川8.0级地震前后陕西地区地倾斜特征迁移分析

对汶川8.0级地震前后陕西地区地倾斜观测资料的分析发现,汶川地震前陕西地区地倾斜存在沿龙门山断裂带方向由东北向西南震中迁移,震后地倾斜反向迁移,迁移平均速度为3～4 km/天。进一步分析认为,震前陕西地区地倾斜向震源迁移可能对汶川8.0级地震起到了触发作用,而震后地倾斜向远场迁移有可能是诱发陕甘川交界的中强余震的主因。     

TRACKING THE BABY BOOM,THE BABY BUST,AND THE ECHO GENERATIONS: HOW AGE COMPOSITION REGULATES US MIGRATION*

US regional and state migration data from the 1940s–80s, when members of the baby boom generation aged into their years of peak labor force mobility, suggest ways in which changing age composition regulates geographical mobility and interregional migration. Labor supply pressure plays a key role in the dynamics of the national migration system. A “delayed mobility” effect in the 1980s similar to the delayed fertility of the baby boom cohorts appears to be a result of the depressed rates of mobility experienced by members of this generation when they flooded regional labor markets with record numbers of entrants in the 1970s. Recent temporal shifts in age-specific volumes of interregional migration help predict the future pace of migration based upon the projected age distribution of the nation.     

冷泉活动区气泡羽状流数值模型研究

羽状流对天然气水合物的识别起到了间接指示作用,为研究冷泉活动区气泡羽状流产生的地震响应,需建立符合实际羽状流特征的模型。为此,参考实际羽状流赋存状态,结合含气泡水体特征,在已建立模型基础上,从羽状流气泡的垂直运移规律、分布特点及羽状流外观特征上对模型进行了改进,先后获得3个羽状流模型,最后的模型Ⅲ更接近实际羽状流赋存特征。通过与实际羽状流的对比,讨论分析了模型Ⅲ的合理性,并得出结论：所建模型体现了实际羽状流气泡的本质特征,并包含了更为复杂的气泡含量变化,可用于进一步深入研究羽状流地震响应特征,也为气泡羽状流的地震识别及天然气水合物的相关研究提供了较好的数值模型。     

GEOSTATISTICS AS MEASURES OF SPATIAL SEGREGATION

Traditional measures of segregation, such as the index of dissimilarity, have been criticized as aspatial in nature. Spatial measures of segregation have been proposed, but they are difficult to use. Based on the idea that segregation implies a spatial separation of ethnic groups, the degree of spatial correlation among groups can reflect the level of segregation. This paper suggests that several geostatistical measures, especially the standard deviational ellipse, are effective tools for capturing the spatial characteristics of a population group. By comparing the ellipses of different groups, measures of segregation can be derived. The paper demonstrates this approach to measuring segregation by way of both a simulation and a case study. [Key words: spatial segregation, geostatistics, deviational ellipses, spatial correspondence/correlation.]     

Nature,Affordability, and Privacy as Motivations for Exurban Living

Current demographic trends indicate that the 21st century will be one of exurban growth as more Americans seek out countryside home sites and their accompanying lifestyles. Two of the literature's conventional wisdoms regarding exurban migration motivations are critically examined in this study: (1) exurbanites are seeking home sites in close proximity to natural places, and (2) exurbanites are drawn to countryside areas because of the affordability of such locations. This study uses 34 snowball-sampled, semistructured interviews from Indiana and Illinois exurbanites to examine these two commonly held beliefs. Subjects reported that the natural environment did not primarily motivate their moves. Current home sites were, however, attractive due to their perceived affordability. The main, and remarkable, finding of this study is the strong desire for privacy that drew people to exurbia. The desire for privacy was cited as a main motivator by a large majority of the subjects interviewed.