潜在地震灾害预测和评价神经网络系统及其若干问题

结合人工神经网络自身的特性和地震灾害预测研究的特点,本文应用神经网络模型,建立了潜在地震灾害预测和评价系统。针对网络模型参数设置、数据归一化、中间层神经元最优数目以及泛化分类评价指标等若干实际问题给出了实际可行的解决方案。通过大样本数据对网络的训练,形成了有识别和记忆功能的非线性预测和评价系统。对网络的测试和检验,论证了该系统在预测潜在地震灾害上的可行性和有效性。同时,从测试精度出发,探讨了这种预测网络存在的不足,并给出了相应的改进建议,为开展进一步的研究工作提供了参考。     

Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection,streamflow forecasting and interannual variability

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been linked to climate anomalies throughout the world. This paper presents an overview of global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection and identifies regions where the relationship may be exploited to forecast streamflow several months ahead. The teleconnection is investigated by fitting a first harmonic to 24-month El Niño streamflow composites from 581 catchments worldwide and the potential for forecasting is investigated by calculating the lag correlation between streamflow and two indicators of ENSO. The analyses indicate clear ENSO-streamflow teleconnections in many catchments, some of which are consistent across large geographical regions. Strong and regionally consistent ENSO-streamflow teleconnections are identified in Australia and New Zealand, South and Central America, and weaker signals are identified in some parts of Africa and North America. The results suggest that the ENSO-streamflow relationship and the serial correlation in streamflow can be used to successfully forecast streamflow. The streamflow forecasts can be used to help manage water resources, particularly in systems with high interannual variability in Australia, southern and drier parts of Africa and some areas of North America.     

Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

皖江中东部雾的客观预报自动化业务系统

介绍了一种雾的客观预报方法，并研制了一个与ＳＴＹＳ接口的雾的客观预报自动化业务系统，对雾有一定的预报能力。     

多源信息方法在殷庄矿开采水文地质预测分区中的应用

根据对殷庄矿地质、水文地质、开采条件与矿井涌水之间关系的研究，提出了煤矿开采水文地质条件预测分区的方法——多源信息方法。该方法借助于地理信息系统技术实现了矿井涌水因素间的有机处理。经过将模型与实际情况反复拟合，最终得出了分区预测模型。     

The reserves of extracted resources: Historical data

The available data on known reserves of extracted resources have not previously been tabulated and graphed. In this article we compile the reserves data in one place for the first time. This serves to (1) show the trends in the reserves series, (2) make the series available to others, and (3) place the reserves data in the context of price data for which longer series have been available, and with which they can now be seen to be consistent in both showing increasing availability rather than increasing scarcity.     

A comparison of state space and multiple regression for monthly forecasts: U.S. Fuel consumption

Monthly consumption forecasts for U.S. oil, natural gas, and coal are made using state space and multiple regression applied to the same data. These forecasts are compared with actual consumption for a test period. The forecasts made using state space are preferred to those made using multiple regression models for both expost and exante cases. The state space forecasts track data cycles better than do the regression forecasts. Average absolute forecast errors are less for the state space models than they are for the multiple regression models.     

船舶气象导航随船验证

通过横流太平洋往返两个航次随船调查，研究了采用气象导航对减少燃油消耗和保证船舶安全、班期等，不但有定的经济效益，而且是一种非常有效的航运管理方法。     

用时间序列模拟和预报天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川年径流总量

本文把1958—1984年天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川的融水径流总量的时间序列X(t),分解为趋势项L(t)、周期项P(t)、平稳项S(t)、随机项ε(t),使该时间序列表示为X(t)=L(t)+P(t)+S(t)+ε(t)。采用非线性回归提取L(t),用谱分析和Fourier级数提取P(t),余差用自回归方程建模,用上述项的叠加作出预报,按相关指数公式计算R=0.90,效果良好。