Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.     

Identifying linear and non-linear behaviour in reduced complexity modelling output using surrogate data methods

Validation of model output is an important issue in the environmental sciences. This is particularly the case for reduced complexity modelling approaches where verification of the underlying equations is often problematic. Hence, methods that go beyond validation based on average values or the histogram of model output, are clearly advantageous. In this paper we show that a validation method based on the serial properties of time–space data, and developed in geomorphology, is a useful alternative but is nevertheless still insensitive to certain asymmetric characteristics of the signal. Hence, use of this method for validation may be enhanced by the adoption of an accompanying test for asymmetry in the model output.     

Does a one point sample adequately characterize the lake environment for paleoenvironmental calibration studies?

A major goal of paleolimnological studies is the quantification of past environmental conditions. This is accomplished by computing transfer functions relating organism assemblages to environmental factors. The environmental data are typically comprised of a point sample of water chemistry and other environmental parameters that are collected at the same time as a surface sediment sample. We explore whether the year of sampling of the environmental variables affects the parameterization of organism-environment relations, in particular chironomids, ostracodes and diatoms. Canonical correspondence analyses revealed that the year of sampling is of secondary importance when relating the organism assemblages to environmental variables, but only with the major explanatory variables. A chironomid-inferred bottom water temperature partial least squares transfer function revealed similar performance statistics between the years. Taxon optima and tolerances were computed for both years using weighted averaging, and the results are comparable. A paired t-test computed on the proxy-inferred bottom water temperature values indicated that the results between the 2 years are not statistically different. The results of this study provide guarded optimism that the methodology of estimating transfer functions as currently applied is not entirely determined by the particular year when the data were collected, although more case studies are needed.     

区域旅游发展的生态安全系统分析——-以内蒙古自治区四子王旗为例

旅游发展有时会给目的地带来负面影响, 为了诊断其整体发展水平, 采用“压力―状态―响应”框架模型, 以内蒙古自治区四子王旗为例, 来分析区域旅游生态系统的安全状态。从旅游生态环境压力、旅游生态环境质量和 旅游生态环境保护整治及建设能力3 个方面来考虑, 根据层次分析法原理及各评价指标间的相互关系, 构建层次 结构模型, 和23 个指标。经过对评价指标不安全指数值的计算和标准值的确定以及指标权重值的确定, 再利用各 指标的不安全度公式和总体生态系统不安全度公式计算出旅游生态系统处于较不安全状态, 并讨论了甄别各因子 对生态系统的限制程度的方法, 对区域旅游发展的生态系统安全分析具有现实意义。     

基于OMI卫星数据的城市对流层NO2变化趋势研究

利用OMNO2全球产品卫星遥感资料研究科技城市北京、交通城市黄骅港、旅游城市三亚、特区城市深圳和工业城市抚顺的NO2月平均变化情况。通过Beat软件和IDL联合编程对该产品进行处理,得到各城市对流层NO2垂直柱密度的月平均值;对各城市2004年10月至2007年10月的NO2月平均变化进行线性正弦模型模拟,得到月平均变化趋势和月增长率,并评价变化趋势的精度。结果显示,各城市在冬季NO2对流层垂直柱密度较大,夏季较小,季节性循环明显。北京、黄骅港、三亚、抚顺在这段时间NO2总体呈增加趋势,从大到小依次是:抚顺、北京、黄骅港和三亚,深圳呈减少趋势。根据趋势显著性判别准则,各城市的NO2月平均变化均显著。另外相对于2004年10月,月相对增长率从大到小依次是抚顺、三亚、黄骅港、北京、深圳,其中深圳的NO2呈现负增长。     

宁夏闽宁镇生态移民社区空间动态演化类型、特征与影响因素研究

社区空间演化是近年来学术界持续关注的热点问题之一。利用社区动态演化集团渗透法（Clique Percolation Method）及叠置分析法,探究了宁夏闽宁镇生态移民社区空间动态演化类型、特征及影响因素,结果表明：① 生态移民社区主要存在增长、融合、延续、新生等空间动态演化类型;② 社区空间演化特征总体表现为由零散到集中,由不规则到规则几何图形,演化过程处于正向演化状态且符合中国民族分布特点;③ 社区空间动态演化影响因素主要有政策、自然环境、产业发展状况和地缘关系。     

基于因子分析法的河西走廊五市旅游竞争力分析

在对河西走廊五市旅游业发展情况进行研究的基础上,从旅游产业发展规模、产业增长潜力和产业环境等3个方面选取了28个指标,通过因子分析法对每个指标数据进行加权,然后通过定量分析法比较各城市旅游竞争力.结果 表明:河西五市中,旅游竞争力顺序依次为酒泉、武威、张掖、嘉峪关、金昌.最后对河西走廊各市旅游竞争力进行了比较分析,并针...     

Crack nucleation in saturated porous media

Crack nucleation has been the subject of important contributions in the last two last decades. However, it seems that few attention has been granted to the case of saturated porous media. This is the question addressed in the present paper which is devoted to nucleation in traction mode. From a physical point of view, nucleation is a sudden phenomenon, so that the material response is both adiabatic and undrained. In the spirit of the variational approach, the nucleated crack is viewed as the final state of a region of space in which the material undergoes a full damage process. In traction mode, the opening of a saturated crack in undrained condition induces a drop of fluid pressure. In case of low fluid compressibility, the presence of the fluid delays the brittle failure usually associated with nucleation, as long as the fluid pressure remains above the saturation vapor pressure. Nucleation is therefore possible only if a partial vaporization of the fluid takes place.     

流动注射-光度法测定地质样品中痕量碘

利用I~-对4,4′-四甲基二氨基二苯甲烷(4,4′-TMB-DPM)与氯胺T反应的催化作用,建立了流动注射-分光光度测定地质样品中痕量碘的方法。采用不等流速合并带法,分析速度快、节省试剂、灵敏度高。与高温水解法释放I~-相结合,使样品处理简单、干扰离子少。对于含I~-10μg/L的水样,其RSD(n=19)为1.1％,检出限为0.3ng/ml。用于水系沉积物、土壤分析时,含碘1.6×10~(-6)的样品RSD(n=10)为6.1％,检出限为0.08×10~(-6)。测量速度50N/h。     

大洋洲地区矿产地数据库建设

依据数据库建库标准、建库流程、数据质量控制措施等方法和流程,构建了大洋洲地区铁、锰、铜、铝、金、镍、铀、稀土元素矿产地数据库。通过对矿产地数据特征与地学多源信息的综合分析,总结区域成矿规律,提供了矿产资源预测的基础数据。形成的数据库管理系统对资料管理、查询、利用更方便,表达更直观,分析和总结更有效。