Spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjacent regions: Implication for future seismic hazard

The study deals spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-years mode along with their 90% probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjoining regions. For this purpose, we applied a straightforward and most robust method known as Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values (GIII). A homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2010 with magnitude M_W ⩾ 4.0 is utilized to estimate these earthquake hazard parameters. An equal grid point mesh, of 1° longitude X 1° latitude, is chosen to produce detailed earthquake hazard maps. This performance allows analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and representation of their regional variations as contour maps. The estimated result of annual mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M_W 6.0 in the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan and northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings in the examined region. The 100-years mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the value of M_W 8.0 in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya with Caucasus mountain belt, the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan, northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings, the Kangra–Himanchal Pradesh and Kashmir of India. The estimated high values of earthquake hazard parameters are mostly correlated with the main tectonic regimes of the examined region. The spatial variations of earthquake hazard parameters reveal that the examined region exhibits more complexity and has high crustal heterogeneity. The spatial maps provide a brief atlas of the earthquake hazard in the region.     

用经验模型判断能力验证统计分析结果的合理性

能力验证是检测实验室识别与同行差异的一种途径,但中国合格评定国家认可委员会( CNAS)在组织能力验证时发现由于种种原因,有些实验室并不能秉承诚信的原则参加能力验证活动,导致统计分析结果“失真”.如何甄别这种情况,确保所有参加CNAS能力验证活动的实验室都获得公平的评价,这是CNAS亟待解决的问题.本文在用国内文献数据对经验模型进行修正的基础上,提出用上报数据目标标准偏差(或稳健标准偏差,sR)与基于经验模型的计算值之比(H值)是否小于0.5作为判据来审核上报数据统计分析结果的合理性.对13套能力验证数据分析表明:其中10套上报数据sR正常,3套数据存在问题.当目标标准偏差偏小,H＜0.5时,建议采用同样是稳健统计方法的迭代法代替四分位法来计算目标标准偏差(sR),或用经验模型计算结果代替实验值计算Z值.通过验证表明,借助Horwitz经验模型可以判断能力验证数据统计分析结果的合理性,并能有效地识别并防止由于某种原因导致对能力验证结果评价失效的情况.     

基于能量原理的Park & Ang损伤模型简化计算方法

Park＆Ang损伤模型综合考虑了结构最大变形和累积滞回耗能的耦合作用,具有一定的先进性,被国内外研究者广泛采用;但由于该模型中参数的计算困难,尤其涉及结构滞回耗能的计算问题时,该模型的应用受到了一定的限制;文中从能量的关系入手,寻找出结构滞回耗能与结构最大位移的关系,利用该关系可方便求解出结构的滞回耗能,从而为该模型的计算提供了一种简便方法;最后,例题分析证明本文的方法简便可行,计算效率高。     

腰椎管侧隐窝分型及影响侧隐窝狭窄症诊断的几个因素（附120例CTM分析）

作者对１２０例因下腰痛手术治疗在术前进行过ＣＴＭ检查的患者作了影像学及临床分析．按形态不同，侧隐窝可分为五种类型：（１）三角型，即整个椎管呈倒三角形，其侧隐窝完全开放；（２）猫耳型，因后关节和椎体后缘轻度增生，形成底宽顶尖的侧隐窝，整个椎管形如猫头，侧脸窝为猫耳，基本开放；（３）牛角型，因关节突向椎体方向过度增生使侧隐窝呈横向伸开的带状，中央椎管不窄，横断面形如牛头，侧阴窝为牛角，严重者侧隐窝可近于闭塞；（４）三叶草型，极度增生的关节突加上向后实入的椎体后缘使整个椎管呈三叶草状，侧隐窝和中央椎管均狭窄；（５）混合型，多为上述形状的混合或两侧侧隐窝发育不对称．前二型不易形成对神经的压迫，后三型易造成压迫．但即使最狭窄的侧隐窝也不一定产生症状，因为关键在于神经根和侧隐窝的宽度的相对关系．因此作者提出单纯依靠侧隐窝的宽度不能诊断侧隐窝狭窄症，而是要判断神经是否被侧隐窝压迫．因此ＣＴＭ在侧隐窝狭窄症的诊断中有突出意义．     

基于"山西2015速度模型"的定位方法对比研究

为了确定山西台网基于“山西2015速度模型”的相对固定的定位方法,选择2010~2016年最大空隙角小于45°、参与定位台站数大于40的103个地震事件,分别采用单纯形法、Hypo2000、Hyposat结合PTD等3种方法重新测定。结果显示,单纯形法和Hyposat结合PTD测定的残差以及网缘地震的震中距两方面均优于Hypo2000;在震源深度方面,Hyposat结合PTD的结果较为可信。综合分析认为,基于“山西2015速度模型”定位地震时,山西台网应固定使用Hyposat结合PTD的方法。     

整体最小二乘的迭代解法

在引入整体最小二乘平差准则的基础上,推导了整体最小二乘的迭代解法;同时,引入多元函数隐函数求导的方法以确定未知参数对观测数据的线性信息,解决了整体最小二乘下的精度评定问题。给出了运用新的解法在拟合函数确定以及坐标转换参数确定等方面的应用实例,验证了新算法的可行性。     

A local model for analysis of pump and treat systems with vertical barrier walls

We present a mathematical model of local, steady groundwater flow near a vertical barrier wall. Flow features represented in the model include an impermeable arc-shaped barrier wall and multiple wells; distant boundary conditions are not included explicitly, but their effects on the local flow field are modelled by specifying a uniform flow at infinity and a constant areal recharge within a local domain. We develop an explicit closed-form solution to the boundary-value problem using the analytic element method. The solution is an extension of a harmonic solution presented by Anderson and Mesa [Anderson EI, Mesa E. The effects of vertical barrier walls on the hydraulic control of contaminated groundwater. Adv Water Resourc 2006;29(1):89–98] which does not include the effects of recharge. We demonstrate that the general solution with recharge consists of the harmonic solution superposed on a special case of the harmonic solution along with two elementary one-dimensional flow solutions. The results are used to investigate the effects of areal recharge on the capture zone envelopes of the pumping wells and on the reduction in discharge that can be achieved by including a barrier wall in a pump and treat design. We find that the benefits of including an open barrier wall in a design, measured as a reduction in the pumping rate required to contain a plume, increase for higher recharge rates. Dimensionless plots of capture zone envelopes are presented for a practical well and barrier wall configuration.     

鲁豫交界地区尾波Q_c值分析研究

该文对濮阳台记录的21次地震进行了地震波衰减研究,讨论了地球介质品质因子随频率变化的关系;利用不同地震采用不同流逝时间的尾波品质因子测定方法,有效去除了由于不同地震或同一地震的地震散射波在纵向介质中穿透深度的不同而导致对品质因子测量结果的影响,从而有利于扑捉到品质因子的异常变化特征与地震孕育过程的关系。利用改进后的模型,对鲁豫交界地区尾波值进行了计算,得到了该地区品质因子随频率的变化关系和区域介质衰减的时间变化特征。     

航空矢量重力测量水平分量的带限直接地形影响

基于第二类Helmert凝聚法的级数展开式,独立推导了航空矢量重力测量水平分量带限直接地形影响的计算公式。在中国西部山区选取了两条沿纬圈方向4000m航线高度上的航线,采用 的数字高程模型基于解析核计算了水平分量的直接地形影响,经低通滤波后与基于带限公式计算的地形影响进行了比较。数值计算结果表明,二者吻合较好,本文给出的带限地形影响公式可用于航空矢量重力测量水平分量的地形归算。     

两种震级标度讨论

分析论述了我国在测报近震震级和面波震级业务中存在的种种问题，用现行起算函数测算的ML随震中距存在系统偏差，近场偏低，远场偏高；此函数系统建立的方法有不合理之处，它不适于DD-1仪。用现行公式测算的MS与国际上震级水平不一致，总体趋势偏高；在90(距离上震级零点严重失控；用单一水平向记录计算MS是个原则性差误。需要用新的起算函数系统代替R1(()计算ML; 需要用新的公式取代现行公式计算MS。