Assessment of three temperature reconstruction methods in the virtual reality of a climate simulation

The performance of statistical climate reconstruction methods in the pre-instrumental period is uncertain, as they are calibrated in a short instrumental period but applied to much longer reconstructions time spans. Here, the virtual reality created by a climate simulation of the past millennium with the model ECHO-G is used as a test bed of three methods to reconstruct the annual Northern Hemisphere temperature. The methods are Composite plus Scaling, the inverse regression method of Mann et al. (Nature 392:779–787, 1998) and a direct principal-components regression method. The testing methodology is based on the construction of pseudo-proxies derived from the climate model output, the application of each of these methods to pseudo-proxy timeseries, and the comparison of their result with the simulated mean temperature. Different structures of the noise have been used to construct pseudo-proxies, ranging from the simulated grid-point precipitation. Also, one sparse and one denser pseudo-proxy network, co-located with two real networks, have been considered. All three methods underestimate the simulated variations of the Northern Hemisphere temperature, but the Composite plus Scaling method clearly displays a better performance and is robust against the different noise models and network size. The most relevant factor determining the skill of the reconstruction appears to be the network size, whereas the different noise models tend to yield similar results.     

Analysis of Difference Between Direct and Geodetic Mass Balance Measurements at South Cascade Glacier, Washington

Net mass balance has been measured since 1958 at South Cascade Glacier using the 'direct method,' e.g. area averages of snow gain and firn and ice loss at stakes. Analysis of cartographic vertical photography has allowed measurement of mass balance using the 'geodetic method' in 1970, 1975, 1977, 1979–80, and 1985–97. Water equivalent change as measured by these nearly independent methods should give similar results. During 1970–97, the direct method shows a cumulative balance of about −15 m, and the geodetic method shows a cumulative balance of about −22 m. The deviation between the two methods is fairly consistent, suggesting no gross errors in either, but rather a cumulative systematic error. It is suspected that the cumulative error is in the direct method because the geodetic method is based on a non-changing reference, the bedrock control, whereas the direct method is measured with reference to only the previous year's summer surface. Possible sources of mass loss that are missing from the direct method are basal melt, internal melt, and ablation on crevasse walls. Possible systematic measurement errors include under-estimation of the density of lost material, sinking stakes, or poorly represented areas.     

Optimisation of the Population Monte Carlo algorithm: Application to constraining isocurvature models with cosmic microwave background data

We optimise the parameters of the Population Monte Carlo algorithm using numerical simulations. The optimisation is based on an efficiency statistic related to the number of samples evaluated prior to convergence, and is applied to a D ‐dimensional Gaussian distribution to derive optimal scaling laws for the algorithm parameters. More complex distributions such as the banana and bimodal distributions are also studied. We apply these results to a cosmological parameter estimation problem that uses CMB anisotropy data from the WMAP nine‐year release to constrain a six parameter adiabatic model and a fifteen parameter admixture model, consisting of correlated adiabatic and isocurvature perturbations. In the case of the adiabatic model and the admixture model we find that the number of sample points increase by factors of 3 and 20, respectively, relative to the optimal Gaussian case. This is due to degeneracies in the underlying parameter space. The WMAP nine‐year data constrain the admixture model to have an isocurvature fraction of 36.3 ± 2.8 %. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

海洋中铁的来源、形态和对初级生产力的限制作用

在海洋中,铁和Ｎ、Ｐ等主营养盐一样,也是一种限制浮游植物初级生产力的重要因素。由于铁是一种化学活性较高的元素,所以海水中铁的存在形态、来源及沉降会直接影响其生物可利用性。目前人们一般采用预富集／原子吸收法（ＡＡＳ）或是借助于电分析技术（如催化极谱）来测定海水中的铁。     

Biogeographic characterization of Mediterranean and Black Seas faunal provinces using GIS procedures

To identify Mediterranean and Black Seas areas where similar marine faunal provinces occur, geographical distribution maps of 536 species of actual or potential interest to fisheries have been digitized, using GIS software, and three different ecological areas have been delimited by depth, separated by the 200 and 1000 m isobaths. Information on the species ranges was taken mainly from the maps and the texts of the FAO Species Identification Sheets covering the region, and complemented by other sources when necessary. All the distribution maps have then been overlaid by a grid of points at regular intervals every half degree of latitude and longitude. This allowed creation of a matrix of presence or absence of the species at each point from which species richness maps have been generated. The species richness in the Mediterranean proper shows the same negative gradient eastwards that has been observed for nutrients, while the low number of species in the Black Sea could be linked to the fragility and recent fast degradation of this ecosystem. Through the calculation of 65 dissimilarity indices from 50 contiguous points along the coastline and the species richness maps, the region has been divided into nine faunal provinces. These faunal provinces have then been compared with the ten Mediterranean and Black Seas divisions used by the GFCM for statistical purposes, revealing few differences between the two classifications. The definition of faunal provinces in a region when deciding upon Natural Management Areas, and the appropriate GIS approach to be followed, are discussed.     

海底沉积物分析测试方法标准的研究

依据海底沉积物分析测试方法标准研究的总体设计，完成了40个分析项目的21份验证报告，进行了实验室间精密度协作性检验工作，在海底沉积物CaCo3,H2Os^-，H2O^ 的分析方法研究中取得新进展，并建立了ICP－AES法测定海底沉积物中常量、微量、稀土元素分析方法。     

煤体静载破坏微震、电磁辐射及裂纹扩展特征研究

为研究型煤在单轴压缩破裂过程中产生的微震、电磁辐射信号与裂纹演化特征的对应关系,利用自主设计的低噪声静态加载试验系统,对0～0.25、0.25～0.5、0.5～1.0、1～2 mm共4种不同粒度的型煤进行了单轴压缩破坏试验,同步采集了煤样破坏过程中的微震、电磁辐射信号及破坏视频图像,提出了一种煤体裂纹快速提取方法并计算了型煤裂纹面积的变化规律。研究结果表明:型煤在单轴压缩过程中产生的微震、电磁辐射信号及裂纹面积在时域上具有良好的同步性。型煤破坏过程中裂纹面积随时间变化曲线可分为4个阶段。第1阶段为压实阶段,煤样所受应力值较小,其表面的裂纹面积以极为缓慢的速率增加。第2阶段为初始破裂阶段,随着应力的增加和内部弹性势能的积聚,型煤表面裂纹面积的增加速率较压实阶段有明显提高,伴随产生许多细小裂纹。第3阶段为加速破裂阶段,随着应力继续增加以及材料内部积聚弹性能的释放,试样变形过程加速,导致裂纹面积增速进一步增大。第4阶段为卸压阶段,试样的裂纹面积达到最大值,承载能力急剧降低,发生失稳破坏。     

Lattice dynamical system modelling of molecular clouds

Because a comprehensive microscopic treatment of interstellar molecular clouds is out of reach, an alternative approach is proposed in which most of the crucial ingredients of the problem are considered, but at some 'minimal' level of modelling. This leads to the elaboration of a lattice dynamical system , i.e. a time-dependent, spatially extended, deterministic system of macroscopic cells coupled through radiative transfer. Each cell is characterized by a small set of variables and supports a caricatural chemistry possessing the essential dynamical features of more realistic reaction schemes.   This approach naturally precludes quantitative results, but allows heretofore unavailable insights into some of the basic mechanisms at play. We focus on the response of the transfer process and the chemistry to a frozen 'turbulent' velocity field. It is shown that the system settles generically into a state where the effective coupling between cells is neither local nor global, and for which no single length-scale exists.   The spectral lines reconstructed from the spatiotemporal evolution of our model may, depending on the velocity field, exhibit profiles ranging from Gaussian to bimodal with strong realization effects. In the bimodal case, the model intrinsically displays an energy cascade transport mechanism to the cells that cool most efficiently: the feedback of chemistry on radiative transfer cannot be neglected.   Finally, extensions of this work are discussed and future developments are outlined.     

Cosmological parameters from velocities, cosmic microwave background and supernovae

We compare and combine likelihood functions of the cosmological parameters Ω_m, h and σ ₈, from peculiar velocities, cosmic microwave background (CMB) and type Ia supernovae. These three data sets directly probe the mass in the Universe, without the need to relate the galaxy distribution to the underlying mass via a 'biasing' relation. We include the recent results from the CMB experiments BOOMERANG and MAXIMA-1. Our analysis assumes a flat Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology with a scale-invariant adiabatic initial power spectrum and baryonic fraction as inferred from big-bang nucleosynthesis. We find that all three data sets agree well, overlapping significantly at the 2 σ level. This therefore justifies a joint analysis, in which we find a joint best-fitting point and 95 per cent confidence limits of     (0.17,0.39),     (0.64,0.86) and     (0.98,1.37). In terms of the natural parameter combinations for these data     (0.40,0.73),     (0.16,0.27). Also for the best-fitting point,     and the age of the Universe is 13.2 Gyr.