Candidate precursors: pulse-like geoelectric signals possibly related to recent seismic activity in Japan

Telemetric network observations of pulse-like geoelectric charge signals using a vertical dipole buried under the ground were undertaken at various observation sites over a wide area in Japan from April 1996. From continuous records of the signals during the six months following that, we attempted to select anomalous signals, possibly related to seismic electric activity. Special attention was paid to the elimination of noise resulting from industrial and meteorological electric activity, comparison with other electromagnetic signals in the VLF band and the relation between the precursor period and the distance from the eventual main shock that occurred in Japan. Four candidate precursor electric signals, which were not contaminated by industrial and meteorological electric activity, were then selected, of which the second appeared before the Akita-ken Nairiku-nanbu earthquake swarm, for which the maximum M = 5.9 occurred on 1996 August 11, and the third and fourth before the Chiba-ken Toho-oki earthquake, M = 6.6, on 1996 September 11. A tentative qualitative model explaining why the candidate precursory signal is related to stress building up before an earthquake is presented in terms of the electrification of gases released from fracturing rocks immediately prior to the main shock.     

Physical universals in problem of precursor soliton generation

Six physical universals and two general relations in the problem of locally forced precursor soliton generation are found thcoretically in terms of the AfKdV equation derived by authors. These six universals and two general relations are examined by experiment and numerical calculation of two-layer flow based on the canonical character of the coefficients of tlie fKdV equations. From comparisons among the theoretical, numerical and experimental results, it is shown that they are in good agreement. There is not any free parameter in this theory, so the theory of the present paper can be used to predict thc wave properties of locally forced precursor soliton generation. Project supported hy Foundation of the State Education Commission for The Dynamics of Upper Ocean and grants of Physical Oceanography Laboratory of Ocean University of Qingdao.     

都江堰ML4.4地震前兆异常特征及预报概况

介绍了１９９３年１２月３０日都江堰ＭＬ４．４地震的前兆异常特征及震前预报概况。震前异常主要有空区、ｂ值、波速比、电磁波等     

1995年永登5.8级地震多种前兆异常特征

研究了１９９５年７月２２日甘肃永登５．８级地震地电、水化学、水动态、地应力、地形变等５种前兆的异常特征，得到如下结论：①该次地震中短期（１年尺度）和短临异常空间分布符合“异常震源地点发震机制主要活断层”之间的特定关系，近２～３年的中期异常集中分布在西秦岭北缘北西向断裂带和海原通渭武都南北向断裂带上；②震前约１年时间尺度震源区发育起来了北北西南南东向挤压变化突出的附加应力场，并引起断层错动；③源兆集中分布在本次地震震源周围，场兆集中分布在上述两条活动断裂带上．源兆占异常的大多数，场兆占少数．在时间上场兆出现在先，源兆在后．     

地震预测研究与展望

概要介绍了近年来国际上就地震预测所展开的争论，分析了VAN方法所反映的地震前兆研究动向；就地震前兆观测与数据资料库建设、地震前兆的统计分析、地震的动力学预测、地震预测算法的发展等方面，论述了国际地震预测研究的进展；并概略地介绍了中国的地震预测研究进展．     

3-D rheologic model of earthquake preparation (II): Strain field and its applications

Introduction Based on the elastic theory of the hard inclusion (Dobrovolskii, 1991), we developed an inclusion theory of rheologic medium, and applied the results of bulk-strain field of a rheologic inclusion model to explain the spatial-temporal evolution process of earthquake precursors (SONG, et al, 2000). In the former paper (SONG, et al, 2003), we derived the viscoelastic displacement field of the rheologic inclusion model on the basis of the analytic expression of displacement field o…     

The effective number of cycles of earthquake ground motion

The seismic response of any system that accumulates damage under cyclic loading is dependent not only on the maximum amplitude of the motion but also its duration. This is explicitly recognized in methods for estimating the liquefaction potential of soil deposits. Many researchers have proposed that the effective number of cycles of the ground motion is a more robust indicator of the destructive capacity of the shaking than the duration. However, as is the case with strong‐motion duration, there is no universally accepted approach to determining the effective number of cycles of motion, and the different methods that have been proposed can give widely varying results for a particular accelerogram. Definitions of the effective number of cycles of motion are reviewed, classified and compared. Measurements are found to differ particularly for accelerograms with broad‐banded frequency content, which contain a significant number of non‐zero crossing peaks. The key seismological parameters influencing the number of cycles of motion and associated equations for predicting this quantity for future earthquakes are identified. Correlations between cycle counts and different duration measures are explored and found to be rather poor in the absence of additional parameters. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Penny-shaped fractures revisited

All methods of seismic characterization of fractured reservoirs are based on effective media theories that relate geometrical and material properties of fractures and surrounding rock to the effective stiffnesses. In exploration seismology, the first-order theory of Hudson is the most popular. It describes the effective model caused by the presence of a single set of thin, aligned vertical fractures in otherwise isotropic rock. This model is known to be transversely isotropic with a horizontal symmetry axis (HTI). Following the theory, one can invert the effective anisotropy for the crack density and type of fluid infill of fractures, the quantities of great importance for reservoir appraisal and management.Here I compute effective media numerically using the finite element method. I deliberately construct models that contain a single set of vertical, ellipsoidal, non-intersecting and non-interconnected fractures to check validity of the first-order Hudson’s theory and establish the limits of its applicability. Contrary to conventional wisdom that Hudson’s results are accurate up to crack density e ≈ 0.1, I show that they consistently overestimate the magnitudes of all effective anisotropic coefficients ε^(V), δ^(V), and γ^(V). Accuracy of theoretically derived anisotropy depends on the type of fluid infill and typically deteriorates as e grows. While the theory gives | ε^(V)|, |δ^(V)|, |γ^(V)| and close to the upper bound of the corresponding numerically obtained values for randomly distributed liquid-filled fractures, theoretical predictions of ε^(V), δ^(V) are not supported by numerical computations when the cracks are dry. This happens primarily because the first-order Hudson’s theory makes no attempt to account for fracture interaction which contributes to the final result much stronger for gas- than for liquid-filled cracks. I find that Mori-Tanaka’s theory is superior to Hudson’s for all examined crack densities and both types of fluid infill.The paper was presented at the 11th International Workshop on Seismic Anisotropy (11IWSA) held in St. John’s, Canada in 2004.     

关于岩石圈有效弹性厚度的地质理解

简要回顾了岩石圈均衡理论的发展及岩石圈区域均衡和挠曲理论在岩石圈动力学研究中起的作用,阐述岩石圈有效弹性厚度(Te)的概念和特征。强调Te的研究是地质学和地球物理学的紧密结合,即通过岩石圈挠曲理论和区域均衡原理,对地形和重力资料进行谱分析计算,来获取岩石圈的物理性质信息。计算的Te(和相应的挠曲刚度)是岩石圈等效的强度,与爆破地震、地震层析成像和大地电磁测深等方法观测到的岩石圈和地壳厚度不同,它们之间只有通过岩石圈的屈服刚度包络面(YSE)才能比较。大洋和大陆岩石圈YSE的理论计算,表明Te值显著小于地震学的地壳和岩石圈厚度。尤其对于大陆岩石圈,地壳厚度、热年龄和应变率均可显著影响岩石圈的强度。本文还以滇西为实例介绍了对相干值曲线计算的新认识和当前岩石圈Te研究的最新趋势。