Fuzzy set approaches to classification of rock masses

Rock mass classification is analogous to multi-feature pattern recognition problem. The objective is to assign a rock mass to one of the pre-defined classes using a given set of criteria. This process involves a number of subjective uncertainties stemming from: (a) qualitative (linguistic) criteria; (b) sharp class boundaries; (c) fixed rating (or weight) scales; and (d) variable input reliability. Fuzzy set theory enables a soft approach to account for these uncertainties by allowing the expert to participate in this process in several ways. Hence, this study was designed to investigate the earlier fuzzy rock mass classification attempts and to devise improved methodologies to utilize the theory more accurately and efficiently. As in the earlier studies, the Rock Mass Rating (RMR) system was adopted as a reference conventional classification system because of its simple linear aggregation.

The proposed classification approach is based on the concept of partial fuzzy sets representing the variable importance or recognition power of each criterion in the universal domain of rock mass quality. The method enables one to evaluate rock mass quality using any set of criteria, and it is easy to implement. To reduce uncertainties due to project- and lithology-dependent variations, partial membership functions were formulated considering shallow (<200 m) tunneling in granitic rock masses. This facilitated a detailed expression of the variations in the classification power of each criterion along the corresponding universal domains. The binary relationship tables generated using these functions were processed not to derive a single class but rather to plot criterion contribution trends (stacked area graphs) and belief surface contours, which proved to be very satisfactory in difficult decision situations. Four input scenarios were selected to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach in different situations and with reference to the earlier approaches.     

Weights of Evidence Modeling of Mineral Potential: A Case Study Using Small Number of Prospects,Abra, Philippines

Weights of evidence (WofE) modeling usually is applied to map mineral potential in areas with large number of deposits/prospects. In this paper, WofE modeling is applied to a case study area measuring about 920 km² with 12 known porphyry copper prospects. A pixel size of 100 m × 100 m was used in the spatial data analyses to represent in a raster-based GIS lateral extents of prospects and of geological features considered as spatial evidence. Predictor maps were created based on (a) estimates of studentized values of positive spatial association between prospects and spatial evidence; (b) proportion of number of prospects in zones where spatial evidence is present; and (c) geological interpretations of positive spatial association between prospects and spatial evidence. Uncertainty because of missing geochemical evidence is shown to have an influence on tests of assumption of conditional independence (CI) among predictor maps with respect to prospects. For the final predictive model, assumption of CI is rejected based on omnibus test but is accepted based on a new omnibus test. The final predictive model, which delineates 30% of study area as zones with potential for porphyry copper, has 83% success rate and 73% prediction rate. The results demonstrate plausibility of WofE modeling of mineral potential in large areas with small number of mineral prospects.     

The effective number of cycles of earthquake ground motion

The seismic response of any system that accumulates damage under cyclic loading is dependent not only on the maximum amplitude of the motion but also its duration. This is explicitly recognized in methods for estimating the liquefaction potential of soil deposits. Many researchers have proposed that the effective number of cycles of the ground motion is a more robust indicator of the destructive capacity of the shaking than the duration. However, as is the case with strong‐motion duration, there is no universally accepted approach to determining the effective number of cycles of motion, and the different methods that have been proposed can give widely varying results for a particular accelerogram. Definitions of the effective number of cycles of motion are reviewed, classified and compared. Measurements are found to differ particularly for accelerograms with broad‐banded frequency content, which contain a significant number of non‐zero crossing peaks. The key seismological parameters influencing the number of cycles of motion and associated equations for predicting this quantity for future earthquakes are identified. Correlations between cycle counts and different duration measures are explored and found to be rather poor in the absence of additional parameters. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Penny-shaped fractures revisited

All methods of seismic characterization of fractured reservoirs are based on effective media theories that relate geometrical and material properties of fractures and surrounding rock to the effective stiffnesses. In exploration seismology, the first-order theory of Hudson is the most popular. It describes the effective model caused by the presence of a single set of thin, aligned vertical fractures in otherwise isotropic rock. This model is known to be transversely isotropic with a horizontal symmetry axis (HTI). Following the theory, one can invert the effective anisotropy for the crack density and type of fluid infill of fractures, the quantities of great importance for reservoir appraisal and management.Here I compute effective media numerically using the finite element method. I deliberately construct models that contain a single set of vertical, ellipsoidal, non-intersecting and non-interconnected fractures to check validity of the first-order Hudson’s theory and establish the limits of its applicability. Contrary to conventional wisdom that Hudson’s results are accurate up to crack density e ≈ 0.1, I show that they consistently overestimate the magnitudes of all effective anisotropic coefficients ε^(V), δ^(V), and γ^(V). Accuracy of theoretically derived anisotropy depends on the type of fluid infill and typically deteriorates as e grows. While the theory gives | ε^(V)|, |δ^(V)|, |γ^(V)| and close to the upper bound of the corresponding numerically obtained values for randomly distributed liquid-filled fractures, theoretical predictions of ε^(V), δ^(V) are not supported by numerical computations when the cracks are dry. This happens primarily because the first-order Hudson’s theory makes no attempt to account for fracture interaction which contributes to the final result much stronger for gas- than for liquid-filled cracks. I find that Mori-Tanaka’s theory is superior to Hudson’s for all examined crack densities and both types of fluid infill.The paper was presented at the 11th International Workshop on Seismic Anisotropy (11IWSA) held in St. John’s, Canada in 2004.     

The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model

Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.     

Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Effect of suction on the mechanical behaviour of iron ore rock

The effect of suction on the behaviour of iron ore has been studied from both physical and mechanical points of view. The porosity and the suction phenomena have been analysed using different experimental techniques. Uniaxial compressive tests on partially saturated samples have shown that the suction is responsible for strength and cohesion improvement. Considering the theory of partially saturated porous soils of Coussy and Dangla (Mécanique des sols non saturés (2002 edn). Hermès Science: 2002; 390), we have proposed a constitutive law for partially saturated iron ore. The real increase in the apparent cohesion due to the capillary attraction forces is overestimated if the yield function is written in terms of effective stresses. The effect of the capillary cohesion has been modelled with a function in the expression of the apparent cohesion of the yield function. The effect of suction on the mechanical behaviour has been represented in the effective stresses space and in the total stresses space like the Alonso model (Géotechnique 1990; 40 :405–430). Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于未确知信息的环状河网水质数学模型研究

以圣维南方程组、对流扩散方程以及未确知信息理论为基础,建立了环状河网一维水动力与未确知水质数学模型。采用Preissman四点隐格式法对圣维南方程组进行离散和采用显式差分对对流扩散方程进行离散,对河网水动力与水质分别进行了合理的编码,并考虑了泵闸等控制工程、降雨径流的影响,采用河网的三级解法编制河网非恒定流的计算程序求解各断面的水位Z和流量Q,实现了水动力和水质两模块之间的数据连接,且对微分形式的水质模型运用未确知数学理论进行了含有两个未确知参数的水质计算,从而不仅能获得污染物浓度区间值,还能得到相应的可信度。实例研究表明,建立的河网水动力模型和未确知信息的水质模型是可靠的,可以用于河网水质治理工程的数值模拟研究和水环境评估。     

东北农牧交错区生态环境影响因素研究

东北农牧交错区属于典型的环境脆弱区,也是我国水土流失、土地荒漠化和草场退化等生态环境问题最为严重的地区之一.深入研究其脆弱环境形成过程中自然因素和人为因素的作用孰轻孰重,对于在生态环境保护与治理过程中有针对性地采取相关政策和措施具有重要的实践价值.以内蒙古东部的通辽和辽宁西部的朝阳为样本点,选取反映自然和人为因素作用的指标,通过主成分分析法对该区域脆弱环境和土地荒漠化形成影响因素进行了比较研究.结果表明,人为因素的影响在东北农牧交错区脆弱环境和土地荒漠化发展过程中起主导作用,综合因素和自然因素的影响强度因地而异.