近10年北京经济职能的发展变化

利用北京1992年、1997年和2002年投入产出表信息,根据净输出判断城市基本部门,采用主成分-因子分析等方法辨识产业群,借此分析了北京近10年间的经济功能变化。电子和信息产业群、医药产业群是北京第三功能优势和科技优势与第二产业的结合而发展的基本部门群。造纸及文教用品、家具制造业与高级服务业也形成了一个关联较密切的产业群。资源环境条件对北京的产业发展产生了一定的约束,但钢铁和机械工业群与石油加工和化学工业群中核心产业的发展却出现了相反的趋势,后者利用已有基础和相对有利的微观区位获得了明显的发展。本文尝试性地提出了“基本部门群”的概念,即核心产业为城市基本部门的产业群。     

中国产业发展与布局的关联法则

产业地理学研究产业空间分布及其动态演化规律。基于地理邻近性的集聚理论揭示了产业地理不平衡分布的内在机制。演化经济地理学借鉴演化经济学的历史视角,从历史角度考察经济活动空间分布的渐进演化机制,认为地理邻近性不是产业地理格局演化的充分必要条件,以认知邻近性为核心的多维邻近性能够提供更好的解释。本文从认知邻近视角系统地分析了中国区域产业发展与布局动态演化规律,总结出中国产业发展与布局的“关联法则”,即一个企业或区域进入（或退出）某项经济活动的概率是该企业或地区拥有的基于相关知识基础的经济活动的函数。本文全面地回顾了关联法则涉及的关键概念,梳理企业和区域尺度的实证研究成果,讨论关联法则在中国的适用性及其补充和拓展。本文指出：① 在认知邻近视角下,基于资源转换和组织学习等理论基础,关联法则研究了企业或区域发展新产业与现有产业之间的关系。② 关联法则不仅适用于中国企业和区域尺度,还会影响区域经济发展、创新和韧性等。③ 外部联系、冲击以及内部制度环境等可能会降低区域产业动态对本地产业基础的依赖性。关联法则指出中国区域需培育内生发展模式,围绕现有区域能力、技术和知识积累发展区域产业和实现区际产业优化布局与分工,逐步建立相关多样化的产业体系,增强区域韧性,支撑国内经济循环。     

Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.     

从全球生产网络到全球金融网络：理解全球-地方经济联系的新框架

全球化带来的新国际劳动分工使全球生产网络(Global Production Network, GPN)成为研究全球经济与区域发展的重要框架。与此同时,金融在现代社会经济运行中的地位日益提升,经济金融化在全球不同尺度下深刻影响着经济活动的空间分布和网络。因此,金融已经成为GPN研究不能忽略的重要环节。更重要的是,金融化带来的逻辑也日益深刻地影响到GPN的演化和运行。尽管GPN研究日益重视金融的作用,并开始研究金融业的全球生产网络,但是随着越来越多的企业通过获得国际股权投资或者在境外资本市场上市等方式融入全球资本市场,主要从生产角度理解地方经济融入全球过程的GPN难以对该现象深入分析。全球金融网络(Global Financial Network, GFN)为刻画和分析这个过程提供了新的框架。在这个分析框架中,地方经济体通过高级商业服务业(Advanced Business Service, ABS)企业与世界城市(国际金融中心)和离岸管辖区产生联系,从而融入GFN。论文介绍了GFN的基本结构,探讨了地方经济融入GFN的主要方式及其产生的影响。最后,提出GFN未来在理论和实证方面可继续深入研究的方向。     

ECONOMIC COOPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND PAN-PACIFIC COUNTRIES:IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMIC AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA

1ntroductionSincel978ChinaembarkedonitsmodemiZaionprogramadopingtheopnDoorPOliCy.Sincethen,cooperationbe~nChinaandtheho-forificcountriesews)havebeenintensifiedandextensified.Noonlybilateraltradeactivitieshavebeenburgeoning,therehasalsobeenPhenomenatgrOWthinthedirectinvestmentineachothefseconomy.Besides,therehasbeenemergingsomenewtypesofmultinationalcoopefationtopromOtefullexploitationofmralandhumanresourcesandtoutilizeeachOther'scomParativeadvantags.TwoPedicularareaswhichmaybelookedaspoe…     

Accuracy of forecasting in a Nordic paper mill's supply chain: A case study

The article compares the accuracy of forecasted and actual supply chain cost and price factors in a Nordic paper mill's sales to customers in two large European countries. Empirical longitudinal research data covering the years between 2002 and 2008 were obtained from a large integrated Finnish paper mill, and consisted of sales volumes, paper prices, variable costs, and transport costs. It was expected that the mill would be able to forecast demand, prices and costs accurately, but the empirical findings showed that the forecasts for paper price, demand, and cost varied from one market to another and were not highly accurate. In addition, the forecasting of gross margins seemed to be very inexact. It is concluded that there is a need for more reliable forecasting methods in the paper industry to anticipate economic development as paper demand and costs change.     

地理、网络与信任:金融危机背景下的生产网络演化

网络演化是演化经济地理学研究的重要内容和新近热点之一。在当前的理论探讨中主要强调路径依赖和惯例对网络演化的强化作用,对于信任这个关键要素缺乏深入探讨。本文通过深度访谈和问卷调查相结合的方法,对比金融危机前后广东省纺织服装行业生产网络的空间结构,揭示信任与生产网络演化之间的互动机制。研究发现:信任是维系生产网络稳定性的基本要素之一,信任的强弱程度主要受合作类型(市场关系)、地理接近(空间关系)和社会文化接近根植性(社会关系)等因素影响。金融危机作为一种负面外部冲击,重构了广东省服装行业的生产网络。在这个过程中,较强信任关系的网络连结(潮汕地区)得以保留,并在危机过后进一步强化;而部分较弱信任关系的网络连结(珠三角地区)发生断裂,且在经济回暖之后被潮汕地区的网络所取代。     

Existing Territories and Formalization of Territorial Use Rights for Moored Fish Aggregating Devices: The Case of Small-Scale Fisheries in the La Désirade Island (France)

Moored fish aggregating devices (MFADs) are used by small-scale fishers to access fish species difficult to harvest in large numbers. In the case of Guadeloupe (Caribbean area), the use of MFADs has increased considerably and this is causing congestion in these fishing areas and creating conflict between fishers. The aim of this article is to understand how informal fishing territories around the La Desirade Island were established and examine these territories through the lens of economic defendability theory. Results of semistructured interviews show that MFAD fishers display territoriality along MFAD tract lines forming quasi-privatized areas. Territoriality in this article is based on the following factors: the type of targeted resources, the cost of harvesting, the defending of territories, and the acknowledgment of territories by the fishing community. Conflicts and utilization of MFADs (overcapacity) have raised an opportunity to create co-managed legalized territorial use rights for fisheries.     

乡村空间重构的理论研究进展与理论框架构建

在新时代城乡融合发展、乡村地域人地关系日益复杂的背景下,乡村空间重构成为乡村地理学研究的重要课题。西方“后生产主义”语境下,乡村空间研究开始出现消费转向、社会-文化转向和后现代转向,多功能、全球化乡村转型与空间重构研究成为西方乡村空间研究的热点;国内研究主要基于乡村地理学人地关系地域系统理论展开乡村空间重构过程—机理—调控研究以及微观视角下农户经济空间行为研究;当前,中国乡村空间重构呈现自上而下的政治经济学转型特征,具有中国特色的农村集体组织与政府、企业、个人等其他主体之间的空间-权力关系成为乡村空间重构的重要视角。政治经济地理学及“社会-空间”二元辩证法为乡村空间重构研究提供了很好的研究范式与研究方法,乡村空间重构研究应系统整合空间生产、主体能动性、土地资本化、社会关系网络、人地关系地域系统和农户地理等政治经济学、地理学理论,强化自然、经济、社会和文化等多要素相互作用及其空间响应机制研究,重点开展多要素多维度的乡村空间格局形成及演变规律研究、乡村社会空间再生产研究、能动性视角下乡村劳动力空间生产研究、政府政策制度与城乡空间治理体系创新研究。     

Book Reviews

Books Reviewed Colbert C. Held, Middle East Patterns: Places, People, and Politics Barbara A. Weightman, Dragons and Tigers: A Geography of South, East, and Southeast Asia Henry J. Bruman, Alcohol in Ancient Mexico Brian W. Blouet, Geopolitics and Globalization in the Twentieth Century M. A. B. Siddique (ed.), International Migration into the 21st Century: Essays in Honour of Reginald Appleyard Michael R. Haines and Richard H. Steckel (eds.), A Population History of North America Emilio Moran, Human Adaptability: An Introduction to Ecological Anthropology Jeremy Leggett, The Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era Susan B. Marriott and Jan Alexander (eds.), Floodplains: Interdisciplinary Approaches William S.Logan, Hanoi: Biography of a City Alex Krieger and David Cobb (eds.) with Amy Turner, Mapping Boston Eric Sandweiss, St. Louis: The Evolution of an American Urban Landscape Carl Abbott, Greater Portland: Urban Life and Landscape in the Pacific Northwest Arthur D. Murphy, Colleen Blanchard and Jennifer A. Hill (eds.), Latino Workers in the Contemporary South Yanek Mieczkowski, The Routledge Historical Atlas of Presidential Elections