海上丝路背景下南亚地缘格局的解构与再建构

印巴战略平衡是南亚地区格局形成的基础,是影响中国海上丝路地缘安全最重要的变量之一。进入21世纪以来,由于印度和巴基斯坦在经济和军事尤其是核力量方面持续不平衡增长以及美国南亚战略发生转向,持续多年的南亚地区均势走向瓦解,以中美印大三角为核心的弹性均势体系正逐步取代过去中印巴和美印巴并行的双三角体系。一个缺少制衡且向西方倾斜的印度,可能会给中国印度洋海上油路安全以及西南边疆稳定带来更多不确定性;巴基斯坦的战略处境更加困难,其作为中国与穆斯林世界桥梁、屏蔽极端势力向新疆渗透的能力会有所削弱。未来中国应积极参与南亚地区再平衡建设,在利用经济合作增进地区互信的同时,还应强化对巴基斯坦的经济和军事支持,并在南亚次大陆周边寻找更多战略立足点,谨防在西太平洋和北印度洋两个方向被美日印联合压制,力求把海上丝路沿线地缘安全风险降到最小。     

利用地理省情监测数据分析土地利用变化——以济南市东部老工业区为例

传统的土地利用变化分析方法无法进行大规模、长周期的土地动态变化监测,也无法适应城市日新月异的发展需求。本文利用山东省地理省情监测数据,采用多种土地利用指数模型对济南市东部老工业区的土地利用变化情况进行了研究。这些指数模型包括动态度、转移矩阵、多度、重要度等。本文通过定量分析2017-2019年老工业区各土地类型的空间格局演变过程,揭示其土地利用空间格局演化机理,并结合社会经济发展的相关资料,对发生变化的原因和内在驱动力作了合理的解释和说明,为新型城镇化政策制定提供了切实的数据支撑和决策依据。     

Strengthening regional governance to protect the marine environment in Northeast Asia: From a fragmented to an integrated approach

Northeast Asia is failing in its attempts to protect its regional seas from irreversible ecological damage and contamination. At the policy level, the regional architecture for marine protection has several glaring structural problems that need to be identified and resolved in an expeditious and politically sensitive manner. Although the UNDP/GEF Yellow Sea Large Marine Ecosystem Project (YS LME) and the Northwest Pacific Action Plan (NOWPAP) are the two most likely institutions from which to build the next phase of regional marine cooperation, synergies between the two institutions remain limited. Both institutions are endowed with unique opportunities, challenges and limitations that must be taken into full consideration when planning the next step of coordinated action for regional marine protection. For the purpose of developing a more effective phase of marine cooperation in Northeast Asia, this paper advocates the formation of a Marine Environmental Community based on an integrated approach towards Northeast Asia's regional marine programs. This will facilitate improvements in funding, policy coordination through high level policy dialogue, transparency and efficiency of information sharing systems and full participation of all the coastal states in the region.     

中亚地区与中国西部盆地类比及其油气勘探潜力

中国西部盆地和中亚某些含油气盆地在地质背景和石油地质条件等方面有一定的相似性,从盆地结构上看,中亚地区的盆地与中国西部盆地大多为具有不同构造属性的构造阶段,相互叠置的叠合盆地;从烃源岩发育特征来看,中下侏罗统的含煤岩系使中国西部与中亚地区烃源层有较好的可比性。勘探实践证明,无论在中亚还是在中国西部该含煤岩系是最重要的烃源层之一,但中国西部绝大多数盆地广泛发育古生界烃源岩,这无疑大大增强了中国西部盆地的生烃潜力。从储集岩特征来看,中亚地区含油气盆地以发育中—新生界储层为主,而中国西部大部分盆地不仅广泛分布中—新生界储层,具有发育古生界储集层的优势;从资源类型来看,中亚地区以天然气占有绝对优势,而中国西部除天然气外,石油资源也有良好的勘探前景。总的来看,中国西部的油气勘探潜力要优于中亚地区的大多数盆地。     

南北地震带强震迁移特征及其与南亚地震带的联系

南北地震带1500年以来7级以上强震迁移显示出3种方式:由北往南大致等时距的迁移、由南往北多样式的迁移和一个时段内全带范围内的成组强震群发活动。从以往100年的强震活动分析,南北地震带的活动还与从缅甸至印尼苏门答腊的南亚地震带强震活动相关联,前者的强震往往滞后于后者几月至数年发生。因此,2004年12月26日苏门答腊岛西面海里发生8·7级大地震后南北地震带发生强震的可能性不能忽视。南北地震带上述多种强震迁移活动特征既与印度板块向NNE的碰撞、俯冲过程有关,也与青藏高原与其东北缘稳定、坚硬的鄂尔多斯和阿拉善块体的相互作用有关     

A Modified Double-Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme Geared toward the East Asian Monsoon Region

Representation of cloud microphysical processes is one of the key aspects of numerical models. An improved doublemoment bulk cloud microphysics scheme(named IMY) was created based on the standard Milbrandt-Yau(MY) scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model for the East Asian monsoon region(EAMR). In the IMY scheme, the shape parameters of raindrops, snow particles, and cloud droplet size distributions are variables instead of fixed constants.Specifically, the shape parameters of r...     

中亚干旱区陆地水资源对气候变化的响应

气候变化对中亚干旱区高山融雪、蒸散发以及径流等水循环过程产生影响,从而引起区域水资源在空间和时间上的重新分配.在归纳总结降水、土壤水、地表水、陆地水储量等不同水体类型在气候变化下改变情况的基础上,综述了中亚干旱区陆地水资源变化对气候变化响应的现状及进展.由于使用的数据和评估方法不同,水资源变化研究结果具有一致性及不确定...     

西北地区东部一次连阴雨过程等熵位涡分析

应用等熵位涡原理,对2005年5月中旬西北地区东部的一次连阴雨过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明:影响这次连阴雨过程的大环流背景是乌拉尔山附近存在一高压脊,同时在巴尔喀什湖附近存在一不断加深的槽;这次连阴雨过程是由高原不断生成的低涡与北边分裂下来的冷空气所共同造成的;由于青藏高原大地形的作用,等熵面上高位涡沿高原北侧向下游输送;等熵位涡高值区与降水区有较好的对应关系,IPV正值区能够反应冷空气的移动,具有较好的预报指示意义。     

A physically based approach to model LAI from MODIS 250 m data in a tropical region

A time series of leaf area index (LAI) has been developed based on 16-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 250 m resolution (MOD250_LAI). The MOD250_LAI product uses a physical radiative transfer model which establishes a relationship between LAI, fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) and given patterns of surface reflectance, view-illumination conditions and optical properties of vegetation. In situ measurements of LAI and FVC made at 166 plots using hemispherical photography served for calibration of model parameters and validation of modelling results. Optical properties of vegetation cover, summarized by the light extinction coefficient, were computed at the local (pixel) level based on empirical models between ground-measured tree crown architecture at 85 sampling plots and spectral values in Landsat ETM+ bands. Influence of view-illumination conditions on optical properties of canopy was simulated by a view angle geometry model incorporating the solar zenith angle and the sensor viewing angle. The results revealed high compatibility of the produced MOD250_LAI data set with ground truth information and the 30 m resolution Landsat ETM+ LAI estimated using the similar algorithm. The produced MOD250_LAI was also compared with the global MODIS 1000-m LAI product (MOD15A2 LAI). Results show good consistency of the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics between the two LAI products. However, the results also showed that the annual LAI amplitude by the MOD15A2 product is significantly higher than by the MOD250_LAI. This higher amplitude is caused by a considerable underestimation of the tropical rainforest LAI by the MOD15A2 during the seasonal phases of low leaf production.