Improvements in Long-Lead Prediction of Early-Summer Subtropical Frontal Rainfall Based on Arctic Sea Ice

Seasonal prediction of East Asia(EA) summer rainfall, especially with a longer-lead time, is in great demand, but still very challenging. The present study aims to make long-lead prediction of EA subtropical frontal rainfall(SFR) during early summer(May-June mean, MJ) by considering Arctic sea ice(ASI) variability as a new potential predictor. A MJ SFR index(SFRI), the leading principle component of the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis applied to the MJ precipitation anomaly over EA, is defined as the predictand. Analysis of 38-year observations(1979-2016) revealed three physically consequential predictors. A stronger SFRI is preceded by dipolar ASI anomaly in the previous autumn, a sea level pressure(SLP) dipole in the Eurasian continent, and a sea surface temperature anomaly tripole pattern in the tropical Pacific in the previous winter. These precursors foreshadow an enhanced Okhotsk High, lower local SLP over EA, and a strengthened western Pacific subtropical high. These factors are controlling circulation features for a positive SFRI. A physical-empirical model was established to predict SFRI by combining the three predictors. Hindcasting was performed for the 1979-2016 period, which showed a hindcast prediction skill that was, unexpectedly, substantially higher than that of a four-dynamical models’ ensemble prediction for the 1979-2010 period(0.72 versus 0.47). Note that ASI variation is a new predictor compared with signals originating from the tropics to mid-latitudes. The long-lead hindcast skill was notably lower without the ASI signals included, implying the high practical value of ASI variation in terms of long-lead seasonal prediction of MJ EA rainfall.     

海岸圈围对雁鸭类水鸟种群及生境的影响研究

滨海湿地是雁鸭类水鸟的重要栖息地,然而高强度的海岸圈围工程对滨海湿地生态系统和鸟类栖息地造成了显著影响,因此分析和研究海岸圈围对雁鸭类水鸟种群及栖息地的影响,对水鸟保护和滨海湿地资源可持续利用具有重要的理论和实践意义。位于长江口的横沙东滩,于2003年启动了海岸圈围促淤工程,工程的实施导致湿地生境和水鸟种群都发生着快速变化。本研究分别对2013、2015、2016和2017年,横沙东滩雁鸭类水鸟种群和生境因子的时空变化进行了调查与分析,通过拟合回归分析得到两者的相关关系,进一步探讨海岸圈围后生境的快速演替对雁鸭类水鸟种群产生的影响,从而提出海岸带圈围后水鸟栖息地的保护与管理对策。结果表明：1）海岸圈围工程的实施显著改变了滨海湿地的水鸟生境及种群特征。随着工程的推进,自然潮滩的盐沼湿地呈动态变化趋势;促淤区则随着泥沙的补给,新生了大面积的沼泽湿地;成陆区逐渐向淡水生态系统演替。伴随着生境的变化,雁鸭类水鸟种群逐渐从成陆区和自然潮滩向促淤区转移。2）不同生境类型影响雁鸭类种群数量特征的生境因子不同。未实施圈围的自然潮滩影响雁鸭类水鸟数量的主要因素是海三棱藨草/藨草群落面积;正在实施圈围的促淤区的主要影响因素是挺水植物面积、植被归一化指数（NDVI）和无植被覆盖水域面积;已圈围的成陆区主要影响因素为沉水植物面积。综上,雁鸭类水鸟偏向选择具有开阔水域、充足食物供给和相对较低植被盖度的生境类型。对于海岸圈围区域,若能合理利用圈围土地,保留部分区域为湿地,并根据水鸟的生境需求,适当营造水鸟适宜的栖息地,可在一定程度上减缓圈围工程对水鸟的影响,实现滨海湿地水鸟栖息地保护和湿地资源可持续利用的动态平衡。     

China and the changing economic geography of coffee value chains

For the past three centuries, the economic geography of the global coffee sector has been characterized by the supply of beans from tropical countries for consumption in North America and Europe, with various modes of value chain coordination enacted by lead firms to ensure reliable and affordable supply. This pattern is now fundamentally changing, with growth in coffee consumption in emerging markets, including China, exceeding that in established markets. But China is not only a growing consumer market, it is less well known that rapidly increasing agricultural production in Yunnan province of southwest China has also inserted the country as an important source region for coffee, and this has been pivotal in facilitating the emergence of Chinese lead firms in the sector. This article presents the emergence of China, and Chinese firms, at a critical juncture for the structure and governance of the global value chain for coffee. The processes through which this is occurring are outlined, and the implications for regional development prospects across Southeast Asia are discussed. We argue that the changing economic geography of coffee value chains, and their increasing driven‐ness by Chinese actors, is starting to reshape the regional coffee industry in profoundly new ways.     

浙江象山东部海域夏季大型底栖动物优势种群和生态位

为了解象山东部海域夏季大型底栖动物群落特征及种间相互作用情况,于2012年8月(夏季)对象山东部海域30个站位进行了大型底栖动物的调查研究。共采集,鉴定大型底栖动物36种(优势种20种),隶属于7门8纲24科,节肢动物15种(41.7%)最多,脊索动物7种(19.4%)次之。聚类分析和MDS排序结果表明,象山东部海域夏季大型底栖动物可以分为4个生态类群。选取Levins生态位宽度指数和Pianka重叠指数进行生态位分析,结果表明:象山东部海域夏季大型底栖动物优势种生态位宽度变化范围为5.22—21.66,生态位宽度值最高的为东方口虾蛄(21.66),最小的为小荚蛏(5.22);Pianka重叠指数大于0.60的优势种占19.5%,多样的生境以及生物本身的适应能力差异,使该海域大型底栖动物优势种的生态位重叠值偏小,减小了种间的竞争。该海域大型底栖动物优势种夏季生态位结构的形成主要与优势种的活动能力有关。     

Timing,magnitude and geochemistry of major Southeast Asian volcanic eruptions: identifying tephrochronologic markers

We review the current knowledge about Southeast Asian volcanoes and their eruption histories, and focus on identifying tephrochronologic markers representing major explosive eruptions in order to further future palaeoclimate and volcanological studies. Forty-one volcanic edifices in Southeast Asia have been classified as large calderas by Whelley et al. (2015) and thus have, or are likely to have, produced large explosive eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6–8. Unfortunately, only 20 such eruptions have known ages, spanning from 1.2 Ma to 1991 ad , and fewer have geochemical data that can be used for tephrostratigraphic correlations. Volcanic products from different geodynamic regions and different sources can generally be distinguished on major element plots (e.g. K₂O versus CaO) of matrix glass composition. However, the distinction of multiple eruptions from the same source often requires additional data such as trace element compositions of matrix glass and/or mineral compositions. Biotite, but also magnetite compositions (MgO and TiO₂ content in particular) appear to be very discriminating. Up to nine tuffs in addition to the three to four Toba tuffs can be utilised as widespread tephrochronologic markers and span a range from 1.2 to 1.6 Ma to recent. As only a few Holocene major eruptions have been well characterised and dated, many large calderas are still unstudied, and many distal tephra layers are still lacking a source, more tephrochronologic markers can certainly be defined in the future.     

Evolutionary investment network and the emerging energy power in Central Asia: From the perspective of cross-border mergers and acquisitions

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Central Asia is emerging as an important pole of global economic and political power, thanks to its unique location at the heart of Eurasia and its abundance in...     

Energy geopolitics in Central Asia: China’s involvement and responses

Journal of Geographical Sciences - To ensure adequate oil supply and mitigate geopolitical uncertainties, China has diversified its sources of crude oil imports in recent years. Central Asia is a...     

Mechanism of interaction between urbanization and resource environment in Central Asia

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Central Asia features an arid and semi-arid climate, and the region is undergoing urbanization in the context of a fragile eco-environment. The influence of...     

Dynamic transition mechanism analysis of the impact of energy development on urbanization in Central Asia

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Energy development has a significant impact on urbanization. This study employs the entropy method to evaluate the level of urbanization in Central Asia and...