冬季北极涛动和北极海冰变化对东亚气候变化的影响

本文简要回顾了冬季北极涛动 (北大西洋涛动 )和北极海冰面积变化对东亚气候变化的影响、研究中存在的问题以及目前亟待解决的科学问题。     

甘肃柳园地区早二叠世正长花岗斑岩脉锆石U-Pb年代学、岩石地球化学特征——对北山造山带晚古生代构造背景的指示

甘肃北山地区位于中亚造山带中段,是诠释中亚造山带构造演化的关键区域之一,长期以来受到地质学界的广泛关注。柳园地区位于甘肃北山南带,区内脉岩发育,这些岩脉的研究可以为阐释北山造山带晚古生代构造背景提供更多证据。基于此,本文选取位于甘肃柳园地区的正长花岗斑岩脉开展了系统的锆石U-Pb-Hf同位素和全岩主量、微量元素分析。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb分析显示,岩脉侵位于早二叠世（（288.5±1.4）Ma）。全岩地球化学分析显示,正长花岗斑岩脉的SiO₂和全碱质量分数较高,Fe、Mg、Ca、Al和P质量分数较低,Rb、Th、U和Pb相对富集,Ba、Nb、La、Ce、Sr和Ti等元素相对亏损,Eu负异常显著,具有较高的Rb/Sr值和较低的K/Rb值及锆石饱和温度（730~844℃,集中于740℃左右）,显示该岩脉为高钾钙碱性高分异I型花岗岩,并具有俯冲带岩浆活动的地球化学特征。正长花岗斑岩脉具有较低的Zr/Hf值（18.42~28.01,平均值为22.37）和Th/U值（3.82~7.99,平均值为5.34）,与平均地壳组分接近,锆石ε_Hf（t）值为2.94~9.66,平均值为5.72,T_DM2值为955~611 Ma,指示源区主体为新元古代地壳的部分熔融,并存在幔源物质加入。根据构造判别图解并结合前人关于二叠纪区域构造变形、盆地沉积物源、岩浆演化等方面的研究结果,笔者认为该正长花岗斑岩脉形成于俯冲作用过程中的局部伸展环境,并认为北山地区增生造山事件至少持续到早二叠世。     

崇明东滩沉积物磷的分布特征及环境意义

对崇明东滩采集的表层样和柱状样品,进行样品的总磷(TP)、无机磷(IP)和有机磷(OP)以及有机质含量等的测定,分析了磷的分布变化特征并对其影响因素和环境意义进行了探讨。     

南亚高压区Rossby波能量向上穿越对流层顶传播的特征与机制

夏季平流层盛行强东风,Rossby波能量难以从对流层向上传播至平流层,而冬季平流层盛行西风,Rossby波能量容易上传,因此以往对Rossby波能量向平流层传播的研究多考虑冬季的情况.而事实上,因为夏季高原上空南亚高压反气旋环流,并非只有强东风存在,所以Rossby波能量也可能在南亚高压区向上传播,从而影响平流层的温度、风场及大气成分等.因此,本文利用ERA-interim逐日再分析资料,分析了1979—2015年夏季南亚高压区Rossby波能量穿越对流层顶传播的特征与机制.结果表明:Rossby波能量可以从南亚高压西北部的窗口区上传至平流层,最高可到达平流层顶,而在南亚高压的其他部分,Rossby波能量均不能穿越对流层顶上传或穿越对流层顶后无法继续上传.南亚高压西北区Rossby波能量可以穿越对流层顶传播的原因是盛行西风,且西风急流出现的频率很小,同时涡动热量通量异常引起的垂直分量的第一项对其上传有很大贡献.南亚高压东北区也盛行西风,然而Rossby波能量不能向上穿越对流层顶的原因是强西风出现频率较高,且温度脊与高度脊位相相近,不利于上传.南亚高压南部均盛行东风,在平流层中下层均为稳定层结,因此Rossby波能量很难上传.南亚高压西南区在对流层位于青藏高原环流的伊朗高原下沉区附近,层结稳定,并且温度脊超前于高度脊,所以Rossby波能量很难上传.而南亚高压东南区在对流层位于南海-西太平洋热带幅合带,层结不稳定,存在Rossby波能量较弱的上传,达到对流层顶后无法继续上传,该区域温度脊落后于高度脊的温压场配置也为Rossby波能量在对流层内的传播提供了条件.     

East Asia winter monsoon variations on a millennial time‐scale before the last glacial–interglacial cycle

Grain size and magnetic susceptibility measurements on samples from a typical loess–palaeosol sequence on the central Chinese Loess Plateau are used to reconstruct the Pleistocene East Asian monsoon climate. The coarse‐grained fraction, i.e. the weight percentage > 30 μm of the bulk grain‐size distribution, is used as a sensitive proxy index of the East Asia winter monsoon strength. On the basis of an absolute time‐scale, time‐series variations of this proxy show that winter monsoon strengths varied on millennial time‐scales during the periods 145–165, 240–280, 320–350, 390–440, 600–640, 860–890, 900–930 and 1330–1400 kyr BP. The wavelength of these climatic oscillations varied between 1.89 and 4.0 kyr, as is shown by spectral analysis using the multitaper method. Although numerical simulation experiments show that high frequencies also can arise from measurement errors in the grain‐size analysis, the frequencies prove to be sufficiently stable when the spectral analysis is repeated with a different number of tapers. For the time being, we do not correlate these climatic oscillations with palaeoclimatic records in the North Atlantic deep‐sea sediments because both time‐scales need to be further improved. Our data, however, certainly demonstrate that millennial‐scale East Asian winter monsoon variations in the last 1.4 million years can be detected from terrestrial loess records. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identification of important marine areas using ecologically or biologically significant areas (EBSAs) criteria in the East to Southeast Asia region and comparison with existing registered areas for the purpose of conservation

The biodiversity of East to Southeast (E–SE) Asian waters is rapidly declining because of anthropogenic effects ranging from local environmental pressures to global warming. To improve marine biodiversity, the Aichi Biodiversity Targets were adopted in 2010. The recommendation of the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice (SBSTTA), encourages application of the ecologically or biologically significant area (EBSA) process to identify areas for conservation. However, there are few examples of the use of EBSA criteria to evaluate entire oceans. In this article, seven criteria are numerically evaluated to identify important marine areas (EBSA candidates) in the E–SE Asia region. The discussion includes 1) the possibility of EBSA criteria quantification throughout the E–SE Asia oceans and the suitability of the indices selected; 2) optimal integration methods for criteria, and the relationships between the criteria and data robustness and completeness; and; 3) a comparison of the EBSA candidates identified and existing registered areas for the purpose of conservation, such as marine protected areas (MPAs). Most of the EBSA criteria could be quantitatively evaluated throughout the Asia-Pacific region. However, three criteria in particular showed a substantial lack of data. Our methodological comparison showed that complementarity analysis performed better than summation because it considered criteria that were evaluated only in limited areas. Most of the difference between present-day registered areas and our results for EBSAs resulted from a lack of data and differences in philosophy for the selection of indices.     

Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in northeast Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and consequent effect on some fish

Global warming effects on seaweed beds are already perceptible. Their geographical distributions greatly depend on water temperatures. To predict future geographical distributions of brown alga, Sargassum horneri, forming large beds in the northwestern Pacific, we referred to future monthly surface water temperatures at about 1.1° of longitude and 0.6° of latitude in February and August in 2050 and 2100 simulated by 12 organizations under an A2 scenario of global warming. The southern limit of S. horneri distribution is expected to keep moving northward such that it may broadly disappear from Honshu Island, the Chinese coast, and Korean Peninsula in 2100, when tropical Sargassum species such as Sargassum tenuifolium may not completely replace S. horneri. Thus, their forests in 2100 do not substitute those of S. horneri in 2000. Fishes using the beds and seaweed rafts consisting of S. horneri in East China Sea suffer these disappearances.     

Evaluating OSL-SAR protocols for dating quartz grains from the loess in Ili Basin,Central Asia

Late Pleistocene records of loess deposition are a critical archive for understanding terrestrial paleoenvironment changes in Central Asia. The age of loess is not well known for the deserts regions and surrounding high plateaus in Central Asia. Previous studies have shown that there remains a disparity between ages for loess deposition by luminescence and ¹⁴C dating. This study evaluates the potential of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) to date a loess sequence resting on fluvial sands in the east Ili Basin, Central Asia. The single-aliquot regenerative-dose (SAR) protocol on coarse grain quartz was employed for equivalent dose determinations. The basal fluvial sand returned a secure OSL age, with low overdispersion value in equivalent doses (19 ± 2%) of ca. 36 ka and provides a close, but maximum age estimate (within 5 ka) on the initiation of loess deposition. However, the loess yielded high overdispersion values for equivalent doses and age reversals, coincident with diffuse paleosols; indicating that pedoturbation with loess deposition may be a dominant process. OSL ages between ca. 45 and 14 ka calculated using a maximum age model and OSL ages from other sites in the Basin suggests that the latest major period of loess deposition was between 70 and 10 ka ago. A future hypothesis to test based on these analyses is that there may be three periods of heightened loess deposition at ca. 45, 35 to 19 and 14 ka, when desert source areas to the west were particularly dry.     

中国西北地区旱涝年南亚高压异常特征

利用1961年1月1日至2010年12月31日NCEP/NCAR再分析数据和站点观测资料,统计分析表明：中国西北区域重旱年典型特征为3、4月南亚高压中心均出现偏西约40°;偏旱年典型特征为3月至4月出现中心位置西移之后东撤,4月至5月出现西移,或4月偏东40°;偏涝年典型特征为7月至8月东西振荡幅度大;西北区域多雨年典型特征为5月中心位置位于孟加拉湾海域,9月明显出现南亚高压东部型,12月位置偏西40°。面积距平最明显的特征是重旱年、偏旱年南亚高压面积偏小,偏涝年、多雨年南亚高压面积偏大,同样也可以看到重旱年4月南亚高亚异常特征十分明显。强度和面积与西北区域降水很好的相关性主要存在于2—4月。     

中国周边地缘影响力的建模与测算——以南亚为例

当今国际社会已经进入了大规模实力转移的时代,如何顺应当代国际关系中实力结构变化的趋势,科学合理地测度一国在周边地缘环境中的影响力,成为国家外交政策和周边战略研究的重要内容。本文基于权力理论、硬实力和软实力理论、相互依赖理论,在突出主导因素和可操作原则的基础上,构建了国家地缘影响力的指标体系,定量测算了近10 年来中国在南亚各国和南亚地区的地缘影响力。结果表明：①2012 年中国与南亚七国的综合实力比较,按照差距从小到大排序,分别为印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔、不丹和马尔代夫。说明国家本身的地缘重量,尤其是硬实力依旧是综合实力的重要支撑。②近10 年来,中国在南亚地区的地缘影响力呈逐年上升趋势。其中,中国在不丹、孟加拉国和尼泊尔的地缘影响力最大,而在斯里兰卡和马尔代夫最小。表明地缘影响力受国家间地理位置的制约,呈距离衰减的空间分布。③国家的实力和地缘影响力并非成正比关系。国家实力强大并不能代表其对外的影响力就强大。④无论在政策制度、国家形象还是文化交流方面,中国与南亚各国间的软实力差距不大。