VARIATIONS OF CLOUD FRACTION OVER EAST ASIA UNDER GLOBAL WARMING CONDITIONS IN THE PAST 20 YEARS

Based on the variation of cloud fraction revealed by D2 Cloud Climatic Data of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project and trend analysis methods, the trend of different types of cloud fraction over East Asia during 1984-2006 is obtained. The analysis focuses on the relationship between temperature and different cloud fraction under the background of globe warming. The result shows a fluctuating decreasing tendency in the total cloud fraction, high-level cloud and low-level cloud over East Asia with the decrement being 2.24%, 1.65% and 1.68%, respectively, while the mid-level cloud increases by 1.07%. In addition, there are great regional differences in cloud fraction. Temperature and water-vapor content variation caused by the greenhouse effects over East Asia is the primary reason for the variation of cloud fraction. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the Bay of Bengal and the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the temperature is negatively correlated with high-level cloud, but positively correlated with mid- and low-level cloud. However, over the West Pacific and the ocean east and north of Japan, the temperature is negatively correlated with low-level cloud but positively correlated with high-level cloud.     

夏季索马里越赤道气流垂直结构的变化特征及其与东亚夏季风活动的关系

采用NCEP/NCAR和ERA40再分析月平均资料,对比分析夏季垂直尺度上五层(1000 hPa、925 hPa、850 hPa、700 hPa、600 hPa)索马里越赤道气流(SMJ)的时空演变特征。指出对流层中低层SMJ存在不同的垂直结构,且具有年际、年代际变化特征。夏季SMJ垂直结构主要呈现出全区一致、上下反相两种分布型(“A”型和“B”型),细分为一致增强型(“A+”型)、一致减弱型(“A-”型)、上弱下强型(“B+”型)和上强下弱型(“B-”型)。进一步分析指出,SMJ垂直结构与东亚夏季风活动关系密切,SMJ“A+”(“A-”)型垂直结构对应东亚夏季风偏强(弱),我国内蒙古东部、华北地区降水偏多(少);夏季SMJ“B+”(“B-”)型垂直结构对应东亚夏季风偏弱(强),我国江南、日本地区降水偏少(多)。     

不同分辨率CCSM4对东亚和中国气候模拟能力分析

本文利用通用气候系统模式CCSM4在三种水平分辨率下的工业化革命前期气候模拟试验,结合观测和再分析资料,比较了各分辨率下模式对中国温度和降水、东亚海平面气压和850 hPa风场的模拟能力,综合评价了模式分辨率对东亚和中国气候模拟的影响.结果表明,三种分辨率对中国温度均具有很好的模拟能力,除春季外,低分辨率(T31,约3.75°×3.75°)对全年温度的模拟能力均要稍好于中(f19,约1.9°×2.5°)、高(f09,约0.9°×1.25°)分辨率;各分辨率对中国降水的模拟能力远不如温度,除冬季外全年都出现的中部地区虚假降水并未因为模式分辨率提高而得到本质改善;对于东亚海平面气压场,低分辨率在冬季模拟能力相对最好,中等分辨率在夏季相对较好,而高分辨率的模拟能力均表现最差;低分辨率对850 hPa东亚冬季风和夏季风的模拟能力均要好于中、高分辨率,而两种较高分辨率的模拟能力则比较接近.总的来说,低分辨率CCSM4在东亚和中国气候模拟中表现出了较大优势,加之其计算代价小,适合进行需要较长时间积分的气候模拟研究.     

Critical Approach to Methods of Glacier Reconstruction in High Asia and Discussion of the Probability of a Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Inland Ice

This overview discusses old and new results as to the controversy on the past glacier extension in High Asia, which has been debated for 35 years now. This paper makes an attempt to come closer to a solution. H.v. Wissmann's interpretation (1959) of a small-scale glaciation contrasts with M. Kuhle's reconstruction (1974) of a large-scale glaciation with a 2.4 million km2 extended Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) inland glaciation and a Himalaya-Karakorum icestream network. Both opinions find support but also contradiction in the International and Chinese literature (Academia Sinica). The solution of this question is of supraregional importance because of the subtropical position of the concerned areas. In case of large albedo-intensive ice surfaces, a global cooling would be the energetical consequence and, furthermore, a breakdown of the summer monsoon. The current and interglacial heat-low above the very effective heating panel of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau exceeding 4000 m, which gives rise to this monsoon circulation, would be replaced by the cold-high of an inland ice. In addition, the plate-tectonically created Pleistocene history of the uplift of High Asia — should the occasion arise up to beyond the snowline (ELA) —would attain a paleoclimatically great, perhaps global importance. In case of a heavy superimposed ice load, the question would come up as to the glacio-isostatic interruption of this primary uplift. The production of the loesses sedimentated in NE-China and their very probable glacial genesis as well as an eustatic lowering of the sea-level by 5 to 7 m in the maximum case of glaciation are immediately tied up with the question of glaciation we want to discuss. Not the least, the problems of biotopes of the sanctuary-centres of flora and fauna, i.e., interglacial re-settlement, are also dependent on it. On the basis of this Quaternary- geomorphological-glaciological connection, future contributions are requested on the past glaciation, the current and glacial permafrost table and periglacial development, the history of uplift, and the development of Ice Age lakes and loess, but also on the development of vegetation and fauna in High Asia.     

ON THE ORIGIN OF RICE AGRICULTURE IN SOUTHERN CHINA AND ITS PROPAGATION EAST ASIA

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Potential impacts of human-induced land cover change on East Asia monsoon

As one major performance of anthropogenic activities, human-induced land use and land cover changes in East Asia have been one of the largest regions in the world. In the past 3000 years, more than 60% of the region has been affected by conversion of various categories of natural vegetation into farmland, conversion of grassland into semidesert and widespread land degradation. Such human-induced land cover changes result in significant changes of surface dynamic parameters, such as albedo, surface roughness, leaf area index and fractional vegetation coverage, etc.The results of a pair of numerical experiments in this paper have shown that by altering the complex exchanges of water and energy from surface to atmosphere, the changes in land cover have brought about significant changes to the East Asian monsoon. These include weakening of the summer monsoon and enhancement of winter monsoon over the region and a commensurate increase in anomalous northerly flow. These changes result in the reduction of all components of surface water balance such as precipitation, runoff, and soil water content. The consequent diminution of northward and inland moisture transfer may be a significant factor in explaining the decreasing of atmospheric and soil humidity and thus the trend in aridification observed in many parts of the region, particularly over Northern China during last 3000 years.The variation of East Asia monsoon presented here is the result of land cover changes only. It is very likely that the anthropogenic modification of monsoon system would have been occurred in the long history of civilization.     

欧亚黄土沉积环境对比研究

本文对采自中国、法国、比利时等国43块黄土样品进行实验室处理后,分析对比了它们在碳酸盐含量、粒度组成、重矿物组成及粘土矿物成分方面的共同特性及差异性。结果表明,中国黄土碳酸盐含量稳定,西欧不同类型的黄土碳酸盐含量差别很大。在粒度组成上,欧亚黄土并没有本质的差别,但西欧不同层位的黄土粒度组成呈有规律变化。对西欧重矿物的分析可以追溯黄土的物质来源,粘土矿物含量在欧亚不同黄土中也有差别。比较结果说明,欧洲的黄土堆积受第四纪冰期、间冰期的气候波动影响较大,中国黄土在堆积期间始终处在干旱、半干旱的气候条件下。     

Potential of Satellite Remote Sensing and GIS for Landslide Hazard Assessment in Southern Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia)

Big landslides are one of the main natural hazards in Kyrgyzstan, which are concentrated in the foothills of the high mountain ranges along the Eastern rim of the Fergana Basin. Because of the high number of landslides and their occurrence over large areas there is a strong need for effective and objective landslide hazard assessment at a regional scale. In Kyrgyzstan satellite remote sensing data represent the only source of multitemporal information about surface conditions covering large areas. Against this background the goal is the development of a satellite remote sensing and GIS-based system for quantitatively oriented and spatially differentiated hazard assessment. During the presented pilot investigations in the area of the Upper Maili Suu river basin a methodological framework has been developed incorporating remote sensing and GIS techniques for various levels of information extraction. So far, methodological investigations have been focused on the potential of satellite remote sensing data from different optical (Landsat-(E)TM, ASTER, MOMS-2P) and radar (ERS-1/2) systems for the creation of an improved knowledge basis for hazard assessment. This includes landslide identification, generation of topographic information and characterization of the geological setting. The derived primary information have been analyzed in a GIS environment to gain an improved process understanding as a main prerequisite for successful hazard assessment. The results show that currently available satellite remote sensing data are suitable for landslide investigation in Kyrgyzstan. Full exploitation of their information potential requires combined analysis with other thematic information based on methods of interactive and automated information extraction.