A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Evidence for a seismic activity mainly constituted of hybrid events at Cayambe volcano,Ecuador. Interpretation in a iced-domes volcano context

The high activity level of Hybrid Events (HE) detected beneath the Cayambe volcano since 1989 has been more thoroughly investigated with data from a temporary array. The unusual HE spectral content allows separating a high-frequency signal riding on a low-frequency one, with a probable single source. HEs are interpreted as high frequency VT events, produced by the interaction between magmatic heat and an underground water system fed by thaw water from the summital glacier, which trigger simultaneous low-frequency fluid resonance in the highly fractured adjacent medium. Pure VTs are interpreted as ‘aborted’ HEs occurring probably in the oldest and coldest part of the volcano complex. To cite this article: B. Guillier, J.-L. Chatelain, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

复合土钉墙支护技术在某大型软土基坑围护中的应用

根据拟建建筑基坑的工程地质条件、周边环境条件、基坑开挖深度等特点综合考虑，对基坑分段采用超前微型桩支护加土钉墙、放坡加土钉墙2种复合支护方案。实践证明，该工程所采用的多种复合式支护实施方案，技术安全可靠，经济合理。     

Great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone

Comparison of histories of great earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis at eight coastal sites suggests plate-boundary ruptures of varying length, implying great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone. Inference of rupture length relies on degree of overlap on radiocarbon age ranges for earthquakes and tsunamis, and relative amounts of coseismic subsidence and heights of tsunamis. Written records of a tsunami in Japan provide the most conclusive evidence for rupture of much of the plate boundary during the earthquake of 26 January 1700. Cascadia stratigraphic evidence dating from about 1600 cal yr B.P., similar to that for the 1700 earthquake, implies a similarly long rupture with substantial subsidence and a high tsunami. Correlations are consistent with other long ruptures about 1350 cal yr B.P., 2500 cal yr B.P., 3400 cal yr B.P., 3800 cal yr B.P., 4400 cal yr B.P., and 4900 cal yr B.P. A rupture about 700-1100 cal yr B.P. was limited to the northern and central parts of the subduction zone, and a northern rupture about 2900 cal yr B.P. may have been similarly limited. Times of probable short ruptures in southern Cascadia include about 1100 cal yr B.P., 1700 cal yr B.P., 3200 cal yr B.P., 4200 cal yr B.P., 4600 cal yr B.P., and 4700 cal yr B.P. Rupture patterns suggest that the plate boundary in northern Cascadia usually breaks in long ruptures during the greatest earthquakes. Ruptures in southernmost Cascadia vary in length and recurrence intervals more than ruptures in northern Cascadia.     

长白山锦北雨养泥炭剖面元素富集规律分析

为了揭示长白山锦北泥炭沼泽区泥炭沉积环境和重金属元素的历史变化及其对环境的指示意义,利用荷兰W ardenaar泥炭采样器采取泥炭样品并对样品进行高分辨率切割。用原子吸收分光光度计和等离子体发射光谱仪测定不同深度剖面Ca,Mg,Na,K,A l,Ti,Cu,Zn,Fe,Mn,Pb,Cr,N i和Co的浓度。研究分析了Ca,Mg,Na,K,A l,Ti,Mn,Zn,Cu,Pb,Cr,N i和Co在泥炭剖面的分布趋势并对其进行了相关分析和富集分析,得出Mn,Zn,Cu,Pb,Cr,N i和Co呈显著相关且在泥炭表层明显累积,揭示出泥炭表层重金属元素的大气沉降来源,表明近年来人类重金属消耗量及排放量的增加是大气沉降重金属元素的主要释放源,而且环境中重金属污染有加重的趋势。     

Cretaceous isochron ages from K–Ar and Ar / Ar dating of eclogitic rocks in the Tso Morari Complex, western Himalaya, India

The Tso Morari Complex, which is thought to be originally the margin of the Indian continent, is composed of pelitic gneisses and schists including mafic rock lenses (eclogites and basic schists). Eclogites studied here have the mineral assemblage Grt + Omp + Ca-Amp + Zo + Phn + Pg + Qtz + Rt. They also have coesite pseudomorph in garnet and quartz rods in omphacite, suggesting a record of ultrahigh-pressure metamorphism. They occur only in the cores of meter-scale mafic rock lenses intercalated with the pelitic schists. Small mafic lenses and the rim parts of large lenses have been strongly deformed to form the foliation parallel to that of the pelitic schists and show the mineral assemblages of upper greenschist to amphibolite facies metamorphism. The garnet–omphacite thermometry and the univariant reaction relations for jadeite formation give 13–21 kbar at 600 °C and 16–18 kbar at 750 °C for the eclogite formation using the jadeite content of clinopyroxene (X_Jd = 0.48).

Phengites in pelitic schists show variable Si / Al and Na / K ratios among grains as well as within single grains, and give K–Ar ages of 50–87 Ma. The pelitic schist with paragonite and phengite yielded K–Ar ages of 83.5 Ma (K = 4.9 wt.%) for paragonite–phengite mixture and 85.3 Ma (K = 7.8 wt.%) for phengite and an isochron age of 91 ± 13 Ma from the two dataset. The eclogite gives a plateau age of 132 Ma in Ar/Ar step-heating analyses using single phengite grain and an inverse isochron age of 130 ± 39 Ma with an initial ⁴⁰Ar / ³⁶Ar ratio of 434 ± 90 in Ar/Ar spot analyses of phengites and paragonites. The Cretaceous isochron ages are interpreted to represent the timing of early stage of exhumation of the eclogitic rocks assuming revised high closure temperature (500 °C) for phengite K–Ar system. The phengites in pelitic schists have experienced retrograde reaction which modified their chemistry during intense deformation associated with the exhumation of these rocks with the release of significant radiogenic ⁴⁰Ar from the crystals. The argon release took place in the schists that experienced the retrogression to upper greenschist facies metamorphisms from the eclogite facies conditions.     

New Approach for Estimation of Static and Seismic Active Earth Pressure

To estimate static and seismic active earth pressure (P_ad) on a rigid retaining wall, numerical analyses using different step sizes have been carried out in this paper, based on the modified Culmann line method by considering Coulomb’s planar rupture surface. Equivalent pseudo-static seismic forces are considered in the analysis. A new concept of modified unit weight by considering ground surcharge is introduced under static and seismic conditions. By numerical analysis, area of soil (A) has been estimated to obtain the ratio of A/A₀ where A₀ is θh², θ is the angle between retaining structure and ground surface and h is the vertical height of the wall. This ratio remains constant for a particular type of soil and has been used to estimate the maximum active earth pressure using force diagram. Results are provided in tabular form for easy calculation of the coefficient of static and seismic active earth pressure. Present results by considering the new technique, compares well with the results obtained by earlier researchers.     

Primary volcanic structures from a type section of Deccan Trap flows around Narsingpur-Harrai-Amarwara, central India: Implications for cooling history

Field investigations of the Deccan Trap lava sequence along a 70 km traverse in the Narsingpur-Harrai-Amarwara area of central India indicate twenty lava flows comprising a total thickness of around 480 m. Primary volcanic structures like vesicles and cooling joints are conspicuous in this volcanic succession and are used to divide individual flows into three well-defined zones namely the lower colonnade zone, entablature zone, and the upper colonnade zone. The variable nature of these structural zones is used for identification and correlation of lava flows in the field. For twenty lava flows, the thicknesses of upper colonnade zones of eight flows are ∼5 m while those of eight other flows are ∼8 m each. The thicknesses of upper colonnade zones of remaining four flows could not be measured in the field. Using the thicknesses of these upper colonnade zones and standard temperature-flow thickness-cooling time profiles for lava pile, the total cooling time of these sixteen Deccan Trap lava flows has been estimated at 12 to 15 years.     

Estimating the minimum in-stream flow requirements via wetted perimeter method based on curvature and slope techniques

Under the assumptions of triangular cross section channel and uniform stable flow, an analytical solution of the minimum ecological in-stream flow requirement (MEIFR) is deduced. Based on the analytical solution, the uncertainty of the wetted perimeter method is analyzed by comparing the two techniques for the determination of the critical point on the relationship curve between wetted perimeter, P and discharge, Q. It is clearly shown that the results of MEIFR based on curvature technique (corresponding to the maximum curvature) and slope technique (slope being 1) are significantly different. On the P-Q curve, the slope of the critical point with the maximum curvature is 0.39 and the MEIFR varied prominently with the change of the slope threshold. This indicates that if a certain value of the slope threshold is not available for slope technique, curvature technique may be a better choice. By applying the analytical solution of MEIFR in the losing rivers of the Western Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China, the MEIFR value via curvature technique is 2.5%-23.7% of the multi-year average annual discharge, while that for slope technique is 11%-105.7%. General conclusions would rely on the more detailed research for all kinds of cross-sections.