Neural dynamic modelling on earthquake magnitude series

Earthquake magnitude prediction is of vital importance for human safety. The earthquake is a very complicated and non-linear dynamic process. It cannot be described adequately by any deterministic models. In this paper a neural dynamic modelling for earthquake magnitude prediction is reported. Historical records of earthquake magnitude series are used to construct the optimal non-linear dynamic model, and the consequent outcome of the earthquake behaviour is then predicted by this model. In turn, the latest recorded data set can be fed back to improve the accuracy of the neural dynamic model. The modelling of experiments of three earthquake magnitude series in China and Japan and their extrapolated predictions are included in this paper. The values predicted by extrapolation are in good agreement with the historical data.     

An estimate of hypocentre location accuracy in a large network: possible implications for tectonic studies in Italy

Data recorded by the Italian Telemetered Seismic Network (ITSN) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) have been widely used in recent years to image slab structures and to find evidence for active processes along the Italian Peninsula. However, the use of seismic data for geostructural purposes may be affected by the well-known trade-off between earthquake location and seismic-velocity parameters. Furthermore, the confidence ellipse predicted by standard procedures may be inadequate for the representation of the probable error of a computed localization. This paper evaluates the probable errors on the hypocentre determinations of the seismic events recorded by the ITSN, using a Monte Carlo method.
We compute synthetic arrival times using a 1-D velocity model appropriate as an average for the Italian area. The hypocentres used are all those recorded by the ITSN during the period January 1992 to March 1994 (1972 events). Station locations are those of the current ITSN configuration. The synthetic arrival times are perturbed with a Gaussian distribution of errors and input to ING's standard hypocentral location procedure, but using crustal velocities differing by 10 per cent from those used to generate them. Each simulation is repeated at least 30 times. Average absolute shifts of hypocentres are assessed in grid cells of linear dimension 33 km covering the whole Italian region.
For regions within the ITSN, shifts are typically 5–10 km in location and up to 20 km in depth. However, for offshore and coastal regions, they are much greater: 50 km or more in both location and depth (far exceeding the equivalent uncertainties quoted by ING bulletins). Possible consequences of this are highlighted by producing a cross-section of subcrustal hypocentres from the Adriatic to the Tyrrhenian Sea, where the large uncertainty in depth precludes any confident interpretation of dipping tectonic features.     

Deconvolution of teleseismic recordings for mantle structure

Delineation of detailed mantle structure frequently requires the separation of source signature and structural response from seismograms recorded at teleseismic distances. This deconvolution problem can be posed in a log-spectral domain where the operation of time-domain convolution is reduced to an additive form. The introduction of multiple events recorded at many stations leads to a system of consistency equations that must be honoured by both the source time functions and the impulse responses associated with propagation paths between sources and receivers. The system is inherently singular, and stabilization is accomplished through the supply of an initial estimate of the source time function. Although alternative choices exist, an effective estimate is derived from the eigenimage associated with the largest eigenvalue in a singular-value decomposition of the suite of aligned seismograms corresponding to a given event. The relation of the deconvolution scheme to simultaneous least-squares deconvolution is examined. Application of the methodology to broadband teleseismic P waveforms recorded on the Canadian National Seismograph Network demonstrates the retrieval of effective Green's functions including secondary phases associated with upper-mantle structure.     

Fully normalized spherical cap harmonics: application to the analysis of sea-level data from TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS-1

We introduce two sets of fully normalized harmonics for the spectral analysis of functions defined on a spherical cap. The harmonics are the products of Fourier functions and the fully normalized associated Legendre functions of non-integer degree. Using Sturm-Liouville theory for boundary-value problems, we present two convenient and stable formulae for computing the zeros of the associated Legendre functions that form two sets of orthogonal functions. Formulae for the stable numerical evaluation of the fully normalized associated Legendre functions of non-integer degree that avoid the gamma function are also derived. The result from the expansions of sea-level anomaly from altimetry into Set 2 fully normalized cap harmonics shows fast convergence of the series, and the degree variances decay rapidly without aliasing effects. The zero-degree coefficients (Set 2) of sea-level anomaly from TOPEX/ POSEIDON (T/P) and ERS-1 indicate an El Niño event during 1993 January-1993 July, and a La Niño event during 1993 November-1994 July, although the ERS-1 result is less obvious. Ocean circulations over the South China Sea and the Kuroshio area are clearly identified with the low-degree expansions of sea-surface topography (SST) from T/P and ERS-1. A cold-core eddy of 4° in diameter centred at 17.5°N, 118 E was detected with the expansion of SST from T/P cycle 47, and a property of the cap harmonics is used to compute this eddy's kinetic energy. The kinetic energy is at a low in winter and high in summer, and its variation seems to be periodic with an amplitude of 0.4 m² S^-2.     

利用不纯净十水芒硝与纯净氯化钾制取硫酸钾的研究

本文通过相图分析，对利用不纯净十水芒硝与纯净氯化钾通过二步转化制取硫酸钾进行了物料配比计算．给出了最佳物料配比及十水芒硝中氯离子的最大含量，对实际生产有指导意义。     

三峡工程永久船闸边坡岩体卸荷特性

从地貌学角度,分析了三峡工程永久船闸边坡岩体的自然及人为卸荷特性,指出了地表侵蚀、河流下切、开挖船闸等自然及人为地貌过程诱发了岩体的基本卸荷过程,构筑了一个三峡工程永久船闸边坡岩体卸荷特性的宏观模式。实地调砥及数值计算成果均表明,地貌分析法在分析实际岩体工程中,岩体卸荷特性方面具有较强的应用价值。     

基于GIS的山区年均温分布模拟与制图

针对某些下垫面复杂而气象站(哨)有限的山区,用地理信息系统(GIS)和气温推算数学模型相结合,来获取全域的年均温分布栅格图和等值线矢量图。以龙游县为例,说明了该方法从数学模型、因素图输入、图层格式转换、图幅叠置分析等一系列技术步骤。     

Centroid moment tensor inversion of low-frequency seismic spectra using Green's functions for aspherical earth models

We present a new method for centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversion, in which we employ the Green's function computed for aspherical earth models using the Direct Solution Method. We apply this method to CMT inversion of low-frequency seismic spectra for the 1994 Bolivia and 1996 Flores Sea deep earthquakes. The estimated centroid locations agree well with those obtained by multiple-shock analyses using body-wave data. This shows that it is possible to obtain reliable CMT solutions by analyses of low-frequency seismic spectra using accurate Green's functions computed for present 3-D earth models.     

Seismicity re-evaluation of the northern Red Sea

The Aqaba subnetwork of five vertical short-period stations of the seismological observatory of King Saud University was installed in late 1986 along the eastern side of the Gulf of Aqaba, northern Red Sea. During the first six years (1986 August to 1992 July) of the subnetwork operation, 400 microearthquakes were detected. Of these, 93 events were recorded by most of the subnet stations and were located. Their epicentres lie in the northern part of the Red Sea between latitudes 25.5 N and 27.5 N and longitudes 33.5 E and 36 E along the axial depression of the Red Sea where the large intrusions (deeps) are located. Magnitudes of the locatable events ranged from 2.1 to 4.8. Two intensive swarms of about 200 microearthquakes occurred in February and June of 1992. The February swarm is the first intensive sequence observed in the surveying area since the establishment of the KSU network. Frequency-magnitude analysis of the recorded events for the period 1986-1992 yielded 3.543 for a and 0.658 for b . These relatively higher b values (0.658) are a good indication of the crustal heterogeneity under the spreading zone of the northern Red Sea. USGS and KSU data together show 3.41 for a and 0.49 for b . This study, together with historical data, confirms that the area is very seismically active and that the activity is mainly of swarm type, and may be attributed to the subsurface magmatic activity and spreading centres that are usually associated with strike-slip and normal faulting, respectively.     

Noise reduction and detection of weak, coherent signals through phase-weighted stacks

We present a new tool for efficient incoherent noise reduction for array data employing complex trace analysis. An amplitude-unbiased coherency measure is designed based on the instantaneous phase, which is used to weight the samples of an ordinary, linear stack. The result is called the phase-weighted stack (PWS) and is cleaned from incoherent noise. PWS thus permits detection of weak but coherent arrivals. The method presented can easily be extended to phase-weighted cross-correlations or be applied in the τ p domain. We illustrate and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of PWS in comparison with other coherency measures and present examples. We further show that our non-linear stacking technique enables us to detect a weak lower-mantle P -to- S conversion from a depth of approximately 840 km on array data. Hints of an 840 km discontinuity have been reported; however, such a discontinuity is not yet established due to the lack of further evidence.