宿迁地震台地震监测能力分析

根据宿迁地震台地震计和数采参数、台站背景噪声等数据,结合历史地震观测数据,运用统计学计算方法,计算宿迁地震台地震监测能力。结果认为:宿迁地震台短周期台基背景噪声较大,微小地震监测能力较弱,但基本可以监测到M_L 2.0地方震,也可监测到150 km范围内周边城市M_L 2.5地震。     

2013年四川省芦山“4.20”7.0级强烈地震触发滑坡

2013年4月20日,四川省芦山县发生了MS7.0地震.文中简要介绍了芦山地震的基本情况与芦山地震区历史地震及其相关地震滑坡情况.依据2008年汶川地震滑坡与地震动峰值加速度(PGA)的空间关系,对芦山地震滑坡大体分布范围进行了推测.根据地震滑坡分类学,将芦山地震滑坡分为破坏型滑坡、连贯型滑坡、流滑型滑坡3大类.其中,破坏型滑坡包括岩质崩塌、岩质滑动、岩质崩滑、土质崩塌、土质滑动等5类;连贯型滑坡包括土质坍塌与慢土流2类;流滑型滑坡为快速流滑.破坏型滑坡如岩质崩塌、岩石滑动、土质崩塌这3类是芦山地震滑坡中最常见的类型.基于震后可利用的高分辨率航片,初步解译得到3 883处滑坡位置点数据.最后,从余震对滑坡的影响,芦山地震滑坡与邻区地震滑坡对比分析,对后续基于高分辨率遥感影像的滑坡精细解译的启示等3个方面开展了分析与讨论.     

利用地震活动图像研究青海强震孕育演化特征

青海地区强震震例研究表明，地震活动图像演化过程对强震的孕育有较好的预示作用。研究了青海强震孕育不同阶段地震活动呈现出的几种清晰稳定的演化图像，对未来强震的时、空、强预测均有一定的指示作用。     

Statistical analysis of seismic data from north-western and western Argentina

Due to the process of subduction of the Nazca Plate, high seismic activity is observed near the Argentine Andean range between 21°S and 36°S. The new version of the Argentine Seismic Catalogue, which includes well-defined events during the period 1964–1989, allows us to perform an analysis of seismic risk.Earthquakes with epicenters in the provinces included in the north-western and western regions were studied using Gumbel III extreme value distribution. Modal extreme magnitudes and return periods were calculated for both regions and the results were compard with the ones obtained through the entire process techniques (both analytical and graphical).As a first study, we analyzed each province separately, after which mean values for each region were obtained. Modal values around 5–5.5 have been found and times of recurrence for events withm _b >6 of approximately 25 years were obtained.Also at CONICET (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Técnicas).     

泡沫泥浆钻进工艺及护壁堵漏机理研究

介绍了所研制的ＤＦ－１型泡沫剂组分及性能；对泡沫泥浆钻进的配方进行了研究，得出的最优配方应用于现场，取得了较好的效果，并对泡沫泥浆的护壁机理进行了研究。     

山东地壳运动GPS观测网的建设与初步结果分析

简述山东地壳运动GPS观测网的建设和数据处理的基本方法，并对系统所得的初步结果进行分析，分析表明，该系统可产出连续、高精度的GPS基准站三维坐标及基线数据，可为地震监测和地壳运动的科学研究提供良好的GPS数据素材。     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

黄河中游岩土侵蚀问题及防治对策探讨

黄河中游出露地层岩性主要有古生界奥陶系碳酸盐岩、石炭系和二叠系碎屑岩;中生界三叠系砂泥岩、侏罗系砂泥岩和白垩系砂泥岩;新生界古近系砂泥岩、新近系(原为第三系)红土及第四系风积黄土和现代风积沙。第四系黄土厚度大,结构松散,遇水易解体,具湿陷性,是黄河中游粗泥砂的主要物源;第四系风积沙分布于黄河中游北部,亦是黄河中游粗泥砂的主要物源。岩土侵蚀类型有五:一是风力侵蚀—风沙侵蚀;二是降雨对谷坡面的面状冲刷—坡面侵蚀;三是地表径流对谷底的侧蚀—沟谷侵蚀;四是滑塌对谷坡坡体的破坏—重力侵蚀;五是潜蚀。并对不同侵蚀类型提出了不同的防治对策。     

大中小震与抗震设防标准

讨论二级抗震设计与超越概率标准、概率法与综合概率法给出的3个水平的地震动的关系. 通过危险性分析的实际例子,讨论了50年超越概率2%、10%和63%的地震动,即大震、中震和小震的相对大小关系,并提出抗震设防标准的确定方法.