Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

山西地震综合数据处理系统

《山西地震综合数据处理系统》是遵循《国家地震局数据库技术规范》,以PDP-11/23~+小型机与IBM/PC联机为硬件支撑,以网状型数据库为核心,含前期处理、库管理、数据检索、科学计算、分析会商5个子系统的较大型应用软件系统。具有对数据进行收集、录入、预处理、存储、管理、加工及应用等功能。整个系统通过总控菜单程序实现了异种机间上百个模块的调度,使查询-处理一体化。该系统把地震数据库、日常监测数据处理、专家地震预报系统有机地衔接于一体,可直接服务于地震科研和震情会商。该系统的建设是山西省重大科技攻关项目,也是国家地震局的合同制项目。     

1966年邢台7.2级地震的构造背景和发震构造

本文根据石油地质勘探的最新资料和元-济人工地震地壳测深剖面相应地段重新解释的结果,分析了邢台7.2级地震的构造背景和发震断裂。研究结果表明,7.2级地震震中位于束鹿断陷盆地南部次凹的东缘,该次凹发育在由新河断裂等4条缓倾铲形正断裂分制围限地台盖层而成的“斛”状构造块体上,块体之下的地壳中存在两条倾向相反的高角度断裂;地震与断陷主断裂及其控制的断陷盆地并非是简单的对应关系,7.2级地震的发震断裂不是单一的缓倾铲形新河断裂或其下方的高角度的F_3断裂和深部的东断裂,而是它们的组合,且高角度断裂是发震断裂的主要部分     

Quaternary fault segmentation and interaction in the epicentral area of the 1561 earthquake (Mw = 6.4), Vallo di Diano, southern Apennines, Italy

The main structural characteristics of the Caggiano and Polla faults, exposed in the epicentral area of the 1561 earthquake (Mw = 6.4), southern Italy, have been investigated in detail to assess their spatial and temporal properties, and to evaluate their seismogenic potential. These right stepping normal faults show an overlap of about 7 km and an across strike separation of about 4 km. The geometric relationships between the Caggiano and Polla faults, but also the displacement distribution along each fault, demonstrate that they have been strongly interacting throughout the Pleistocene. Nevertheless, geological evidence of Holocene tectonic activity was mainly recognized along the Caggiano Fault (faulted late glacial deposits) and in the southernmost part of the Polla Fault (faulted deposits of probably Late Pleistocene age). This suggests that the Caggiano Fault can be considered as the most tectonically active fault in the Vallo di Diano Fault System. By calculating Coulomb stress changes, we have constrained modes of mechanical interactions between the two faults in a scenario compatible with the 1561 earthquake. This approach allows us to argue that both the Caggiano and the Polla Faults are probably linked at depth, and part of the same seismogenic structure which may be potentially responsible for composite ruptures with magnitude ≥ 6.5.     

Water and power networks and urban fragmentation in Los Angeles: Rethinking assumed mechanisms

Los Angeles is often described as the epitome of urban fragmentation, a notion which in this context is frequently connected to, or even conflated with urban sprawl. At the same time, the city features integrated water and power networks which have been under public ownership for over 70 years. We thus have an apparent paradox in the context of the debate on ‘splintering urbanism’, between socio-spatial fragmentation and the integration of networks. In discussing the idea that deregulation of infrastructural networks exacerbates urban fragmentation, the authors use the case of Los Angeles in order to highlight the central role of private interests in management decisions concerning infrastructure networks. The authors carry out their analysis in an historical perspective, revealing that network integration and universal access can often serve private interests more than the public good. Urban fragmentation in Los Angeles, they conclude, is the result of a complex process of instrumentalisation of network development and management.     

Church-based social capital, networks and geographical scale: Katrina evacuation, relocation, and recovery in a New Orleans Vietnamese American community

This research examines the role of social capital and networks to explain the evacuation, relocation, and recovery experiences of a Vietnamese American community in New Orleans, Louisiana in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. As the single largest community institution, the parish church’s complex bonding and bridging social capital and networks proved particularly critical in part because of its historically based ontological security. The process of evacuation, but especially relocation and recovery, was dependent on deploying co-ethnic social capital and networks at a variety of geographical scales. Beyond the local or community scale, extra-local, regional, and national scales of social capital and networks reproduced a spatially redefined Vietnamese American community. Part of the recovery process included constructing discursive place-based collective-action frames to successfully contest a nearby landfill that in turn engendered social capital and networks crossing ethnic boundaries to include the extra-local African American community. Engaging social capital and networks beyond the local geographical scale cultivated a Vietnamese American community with an emergent post-Katrina cultural and political identity.     

Identifying China’s leading world city: a network approach

This paper reports our research on China’s world cities. Formal network analysis of air passenger linkages for recent years among China’s most populous cities and among many of the world’s largest cities allows us to identify the country’s leading world city from among the leading Mainland candidates, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. We theorize our findings about China’s world cities in relation to both global forces (and China’s increasing entanglement with them) and the policies and actions of the national state. We examine the national and global urban network through a longitudinal, two-level analysis of airline passenger travel for four time points between about 1990 and 2005. We show that Beijing was China’s leading world city at the beginning of the time period, a status it lost nationally in as early as 1995, and then globally 10 years later. On the other hand Shanghai became China’s leading world city, and it acquired this status first nationally in 2000, and then globally in 2005. The changing status of the Chinese capital corresponds to the country’s increasing involvement with the capitalist world economy. Shanghai’s ascendance as the leading world city in China may indicate that global forces have come to play an increasingly important role relative to that of the developmental state.

Nonlinear Analysis of Local Site Effects on Seismic Ground Response in the Bam Earthquake

The influence of local geologic and soil conditions on the intensity of ground shaking is addressed in this study. The amplification of the ground motion due to local site effects resulted in severe damage to dwellings in the Bam area during the 2003 Bam Earthquake. A unique set of strong motion acceleration recordings was obtained at the Bam accelerograph station. Although the highest peak ground acceleration recorded was the vertical component (nearly 1 g), the longitudinal component (fault-parallel motion) clearly had the largest maximum velocity as well as maximum ground displacement. Subsurface geotechnical and geophysical (down-hole) data in two different sites have been obtained and used to estimate the local site condition on earthquake ground motion in the area. The ground response analyses have been conducted considering the nonlinear behavior of the soil deposits using both equivalent linear and nonlinear approaches. The fully nonlinear method embodied in FLAC was used to evaluate the nonlinear soil properties on earthquake wave propagation through the soil layer, and compare with the response from the equivalent linear approach. It is shown that thick alluvium deposits amplified the ground motion and resulted in significant damage in residential buildings in the earthquake stricken region. The comparison of results indicated similar response spectra of the motions for both equivalent and nonlinear analyses, showing peaks in the period range of 0.3–1.5 s. However, the amplification levels of nonlinear analysis were less than the equivalent linear method especially in long periods. The observed response spectra are shown to be above the NEHRP building code design requirements, especially at high frequencies.     

Analysis of the 2003 Varunawat Landslide,Uttarkashi, India using Earth Observation data

Mass movements such as landslides in mountainous terrains are natural degradation processes and one of the most important landscape-building factors. Varunawat Parbat overlooking Uttarkashi town witnessed a series of landslides on 23 September 2003 and the debris slides and rock falls continued for 2 weeks. This landslide complex was triggered due to the incessant rainfall prior to the event, and its occurrence led to the blockage of the pilgrim route to Gangotri (source of the Ganges river) and evacuation of thousands of people to safer places. Though there was no loss of lives due to timely evacuation, heavy losses to the property were reported. High-resolution stereoscopic earth observation data were acquired after the incidence to study the landslide in detail with emphasis on the cause of the landslide and mode of failure. Areas along the road and below the Varunawat foothill region are mapped for landslide risk. It was found that the foothill region of the Varunawat Parbat was highly disturbed by man-made activities and houses are dangerously located below steep slopes. The potential zones for landslides along with the existing active and old landslides are mapped. These areas are critical and their treatment with priority is required in order to minimise further landslide occurrences.     

PSO-RBFNN模型及其在岩土工程非线性时间序列预测中的应用

岩土工程受力变形演化是一个典型的非线性问题,其演化的高度非线性和复杂性,很难用简单的力学、数学模型描述,但可用粒子群优化径向基神经网络对岩土工程应力、位移非线性时间序列进行动态实时预测。网络径向基层的单元数通过均值聚类法确定后,所有其它参数：中心位置、形状参数、网络权值,均通过粒子群优化算法在全局空间优化确定。工程实例应用表明,该模型预测结果准确、精度高,有良好的应用前景。