FEASIBLE STUDY ON THE INTEGRATION SYSTEM FOR THE SPACE MONITORING OF MAJOR EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES IN TERRESTRIAL LAND

With the rapid development of space technology, earth observation technology and sky observatory technolo-gy, they have played a more and more important part in monitoring and predicting of earthquakes and volcanoes in the terres-trial land. In recent years, the related agencies have done the experiments and researches on monitoring and predicting ofearthquakes and volcanoes in the forewarning period by means of many approaches, such as satellite thermal infrared re-mote sensing (TIRS), Global Positioning System (GPS), differential interferometric synthesis aperture radar (D-INSAR),astronomical time-latitude residual anomaly, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), etc. A quite large number of re-search foundation has been built in the fundamental theories and application methods. The experiments and researcheshave shown that these technology is efficient methods for high frequency crust movement. If the existed separate scientificforces and results are possibly assembled together to form a more complete integration monitoring system with the combina-tion of space, sky observation, ground, deep geology and macro anomaly, it will come into a new stage of monitoring andpredicting of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.     

High energy phenomena in eta carinae

We have investigated with BeppoSAX the long term behaviour of the harder X-ray component of the supposed supermassive binary system η Car along its 5.52 year cycle. We have found that in March 1998 during egress from the last December 1997 eclipse, this component was the same as outside eclipse, but for a large (×3.5) increase of NH _h , that can be attributed to the presence or formation of opaque matter in front of the source near periastron. Unexpectedly, at that time the iron 6.7 keV emission line was 40% stronger. BeppoSAX has for the first time found ahard X-ray tail extending to at least 50 keV, that cannot be adequately fitted with an additional hotter thermal component. The 2–100 keV spectrum of η Car is instead well fitted with an absorbed powerlaw spectrum with photon index 2.53, suggesting non-thermal emission as an alternative model for the core source.     

大同—阳高Ms6.1地震前兆综合加权信息熵的变化

利用“地震预报计算机专家系统”的思想对大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前每一前兆异常事件进行综合评估 ,以每一异常的最可能发震时间来计算发震概率 ,利用地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究了系统熵值与地震的关系。对华北地区的地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究表明 ,在大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前 ,信息熵出现了明显的减熵有序变化     

黑子磁流体静力学的一个模型

本文对Ｏｓｈｅｒｏｖｉｃｈ的黑子返回磁通量模型作了适当的修改，使用黑子中心作为边界条件，用五种观测结果，导出了理论模型所需的五个主要参量，用半经验方法求得了黑子静力学模型的磁场、压力和温度等物理量．将此模型应用于一个中等大小的圆形对称黑子，可得到一个特解，结果发现我们的模型既能满足黑子的磁性质，同时又能满足合理的热力学量分布．     

地壳对海洋潮汐的响应

应用三维动态有限元方法研究了中国北部地区的地壳对邻近的渤海与黄海海平面变化的响应。虽然此应力场过于微弱不足以引发地震，但发现应力集中的位置及应力场变化较大的位置恰好与某些现代地震的震中一致。这一结果表明研究地壳对广泛分布的载荷的响应对研究区域地震构造是有帮助的。     

MATLAB在运用系统建模处理南海气象数据过程中应用

介绍了MATLAB语言特点和系统建模方法的基本理论.根据南海气象数据的实际建模处理过程,给出了建模的详细步骤及其MATLAB实现过程以及MATLABTM的主要实现程序.试验讨论和结果表明利用MATLAB语言可以方便地对南海气象数据用系统建模方法进行建模和处理,MATLAB在运用系统建模法处理南海气象数据方面具有明显的优越性.     

Isotope hydrological study of mean transit time in the granitic Strengbach catchment (Vosges massif,France): application of the FlowPC model with modified input function

Measurements of ¹⁸O concentrations in precipitation, soil solution, spring and runoff are used to determine water transit time in the small granitic Strengbach catchment (0·8 km²; 883–1146 m above sea level) located in the Vosges Mountains of northeastern France. Water transit times were calculated by applying the exponential, exponential piston and dispersion models of the FlowPC program to isotopic input (rainfall) and output (spring and stream water) data sets during the period 1989–95. The input function of the model was modified compared with the former version of the model and estimated by a deterministic approach based on a simplified hydrological balance. The fit between observed and calculated output data showed marked improvements compared with results obtained using the initial version of the model. An exponential piston version of the model applied to spring water indicates a 38·5 month mean transit time, which suggests that the volume in the aquifer, expressed in water depth, is 2·4 m. A considerable thickness (>45 m) of fractured bedrock may be involved for such a volume of water to be stored in the aquifer. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

昆仑山8.1级地震前中国大陆的构造应变背景

利用“网络工程”1998～2001年累积的1181个测站的GPS重复观测资料，采用双三次样条函数模型建立中国大陆水平运动模型速度场，用大地坐标在椭球面上计算各类应变场，详细分析了2001年昆仑山8．1级地震前中国大陆水平构造应变场空间分布特征。各类构造应变场的最高值都出现在喜马拉雅构造带与昆仑山地块内(地震断裂带南侧)，鲜水河—安宁河断裂带次之。分析表明，昆仑山8．1级地震正好发生在张性面膨胀应变率的高值区，第一、第二和最大剪应变率高值区边缘的突变区和最大、最小主应变率的高值区。     

利用自回归模型检测地球极移重力效应

同时采用4个台站的国际超导重力仪长期连续重力观测资料和国际地球自转服务中心提供的同步地球自转参数，研究了极移引起的地球重力场变化特征。利用自回归模型估计了各序列的功率谱密度和积谱密度，结果表明极移导致的重力效应的主要能量集中在Chandler摆动和周年项附近，叠积后实际重力观测与极移重力信号理论值之间的差异分别为0．4％和3．9％，说明超导重力仪可有效监测极移导致的重力变化。