区域旅游资源定量评价研究--以昌吉回族自治州为例

本文以新疆昌吉回族自治州为实例,对目前旅游资源评价综合方法进行了分析,指出了旅游资源本质评价的核心是资源本身在品质评价及旅游资源品质评价与吸收力评价的区别,提出了区域旅游资源评价的指标体系和原则,论述了区域旅游资源品质评价的方法,过程和结果。     

基于昆明市精细化GIS的天气雷达标准格式基数据应用

以国家地理信息公共服务平台、云南数字乡村、Mapinfo公共数据为数据源,在C#开发环境下实现了精细到乡镇、公路、行政村、自然村的昆明市精细化地理信息系统(GIS)的自主研发,解决了基层气象部门缺乏精细化GIS的难题。介绍了标准格式基数据的解析、成图过程及注意事项,在全国范围内较早实现了天气雷达标准格式基数据在基层气象部门的业务应用。在业务应用过程中,发现了CC天气雷达标准格式早期基数据存在回波强度严重减弱的问题;昆明市精细化GIS与昆明天气雷达回波图的融合应用,可以精确定位雷达强回波区,对精细化气象服务具有指导作用,提高了强天气精细化预警能力、短时临近精细化预报能力和防灾减灾能力。     

Wavelet analysis of the standard map: Structure and scaling

Wavelet analysis is applied to distributions of points generated by iterating the standard map. The initial condition is chosen so that the points fill the largest chaotic region. When the standard map parameterk=1.3, the distribution of points contains many voids corresponding to islands in the chaotic region. The wavelet transform is dominated by contributions from these islands. Fork=10 the chaos fills phase space and no structure is apparent; the wavelet transform reveals statistical fluctuations in the distribution of points.     

A relationship between solar activity and frequency of natural disasters in China

The relationship between the length of the solar cycle, a good indicator of long-term change in solar activity, and natural disasters (drought, flood, and strong earthquakes) in China during the last 108 years is analyzed. The results suggest that the length of solar cycle may be a useful indicator for drought/flood and strong earthquakes. When the solar activity strengthens, we see the length of the solar cycle shorten and more floods occur in South China and frequent strong earthquakes happen in the Tibetan Plateau,but the droughts in East China as well as the strong earthquakes in Taiwan and at the western boundary of China are very few. The opposite frequencies occur when the solar activity weakens. The current study indicates that the solar activity may play an important role in the climate extremes and behavior in the lithosphere.     

Automatic Location of Swarm Earthquakes from Local Network Data

An advanced method of automated seismic phase picking and exact location and magnitude determination of swarm micro-earthquakes from local network data is presented. The phase picker is applied in two steps: first, S-wave groups are identified using a polarisation detector, and then corresponding P-wave groups are searched for. The times of maximum P- and S-amplitudes are then used as starting points for the determination of accurate P- and S-arrival times. The maximum S-wave amplitudes are utilised for determining local magnitudes. The whole procedure is checked by simultaneous preliminary hypocentre location providing estimates of local magnitudes and a compatibility check of the candidate P- and S-phases. The closest station to the earthquake cluster is used as a master, and the phase search at the remaining stations is governed by the P- and S-phases identified at the master station. Thanks to the use of apriori information on the approximate position of hypocentres, the procedure is also capable of picking the individual P- and S-phases of sequences of overlapping swarm events. The performance of the procedure was tested by comparison of the automatically and interactively created catalogues of the January 1997 NW-Bohemia micro-earthquake swarm. With stations located at epicentral distances between 0 and 20 km, the difference between hypocentre coordinates obtained by automatic and interactive processing did not exceed 80 m for 86% events. All events above magnitude 0.5 were identified, and the automatically determined polarity of first P-wave motion proved to be correct in 89% of them.     

昆仑山口西8.1级地震前的地震活动异常及预测意义的讨论

昆仑山口西8．1地震前明显地出现大区域地震活动平静、高6值、高调制、低锅值的异常配套现象．回顾性分析了巨大地震前不同时问和空间尺度的地震活动性异常,探讨了巨大地震的预测可能性。     

昆仑山口西8.1级地震后青藏高原北部地区地震活动初步研究

利用相关震例分析了昆仑山口西8．1级地震后青藏高原北部地区未来1～3年地震活动特征．结果表明,沿东昆仑构造带及邻近地区发生Ms≥7．0地震后青藏高原北部地区中强地震活动有增强的趋势,祁连山地震带和东昆仑地震带的地震活动具有交替发生的特征,未来1～3年中强地震主体活动区为大型走滑活动断裂上应力转换部位和挤压会聚构造区,如东昆仑断裂带中东段和祁连山地震带中东段和西段。     

地震速报参数不确定性的应急灾害损失快速评估模型

本文针对目前地震应急灾害损失快速评估中存在的问题,建立了考虑地震速报参数不确定性的灾害损失快速评估模型。并利用1990年来全国的81组速报震中与宏观震中数据。得到速报震中与宏观震中偏差的概率分布经验参数。     

新疆伽师强震群强震主破裂面走向初探

1997年1月21日-1998年8月27日新疆伽师发生了包含9次6级地震的强震群,震源机制解表明有NE向和NW向两个节面．有观点认为主破裂面为NNW向．本通过数字地震台阵的余震序列精确定位、震源破裂过程及滑动方向、震群空间分布图像、地震烈度等震线长轴走向和微、宏观震中动态变化方向等多种方法分析后,综合判定9次6级地震的主破裂面走向极可能为北东方向．     

Multi‐variable relations for soil effects on seismic ground motion

Soil effects on peak ground acceleration, velocity and elastic response spectra (5% damping) are expressed by simple approximate relations in terms of five key parameters: (a) the fundamental vibration period of the non‐linear soil, T_S, (b) the period of a bedrock site of equal thickness, T_b, (c) the predominant excitation period, Te, (d) the peak seismic acceleration at outcropping bedrock, a, and (e) the number of significant excitation cycles, n. Furthermore, another relation is proposed for the estimation of T_S in terms of the soil thickness H, the average shear wave velocity of the soil V?_S,o and a. The aforementioned parameters were first identified through a simplified analytical simulation of the site excitation. The multivariable approximate relations were then formulated via a statistical analysis of relevant data from more than 700 one‐dimensional equivalent‐linear seismic ground response analyses, for actual seismic excitations and natural soil conditions. Use of these relations to back‐calculate the numerical results in the database gives an estimate of their error margin, which is found to be relatively small and unbiased. The proposed relations are also independently verified through a detailed comparison with strong motion recordings from seven well‐documented case studies: (a) two sites in the San Fernando valley during the Northridge earthquake, and (b) five different seismic events recorded at the SMART‐1 accelerometer array in Taiwan. It is deduced that the accuracy of the relations is comparable to that of the equivalent‐linear method. Hence, they can be readily used as a quick alternative for routine applications, as well as for spreadsheet computations (e.g. GIS‐aided seismic microzonation studies) where numerical methods are cumbersome to implement. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.