基于神经网络的平底结构砰击压力预报

对利用神经网络预报平底结构入水砰击压力的方法进行了探讨。首先利用仿真软件计算各种情况下平底结构入水所产生的砰击压力，以此形成训练神经网络的数据集。其次利用数据集对三层反馈式网络进行了训练，讨论了不同隐含层节点数对该非线性系统的拟合能力，并且对梯度下降法、动量修正法和基于优化的LM算法的有效性和精度进行了比较，最后得出了适合平底结构入水砰击系统的网络结构。     

1999年以来台湾及邻近海域7.5级以上强震前的条带现象

中国台湾地区地处欧亚板块与菲律宾海板块之间,地震活动频繁．本文报道了 我国台湾地区及其邻近海域1985～2002年间5．5级以上地震的条带内外频度比分 布,并着重研究了1999—2002年中发生的3次7．5级以上地震前的条带现象．其结 果表明:台湾地区近期发生的3次7．5级以上大地震前,5．5级以上地震呈条带分 布．这些条带符合条带内地震个数Nin≥6的条件,符合条带内、外频度比Nin／(Nin Nout)≥75％的条件,也符合条带长宽比大于5的要求,只是与板内地震条带相比,条 带的长度较短．     

利用归一化层速度预测和研究储层物性的方法

归一化层速度是对任意深度处的层速度进行归一化处理的一种速度形式，归一化处理的目的是把任意深度处的层速度转换为与深度无关的格式，归一化后层速度的横向变化主要取决于地层岩性，孔隙度等物性的变化，利用这一特点可以方便地利用已知钻井资料对其进行标定，比较简单地进行地层岩性，孔隙度等特性的预测。实际应用表明，其预测结果与钻井揭示吻合较好，预测效果令人满意。     

Lower Cd/P ratio in settling particles than in surface seawater in the Okinawa Trough

The characteristics of the ratios between cadmium (Cd) and phosphorus (P) in settling particles collected from the Okinawa Trough in the East China Sea were examined using a sediment trap, moored at a depth of 811 m for one year. The Cd/P ratios varied within a narrow range throughout the year, in spite of the large seasonal change in the total dry mass, Cd, and P fluxes. The average Cd/P ratio of settling particles was 0.062 (nmol/μmol), which was obviously lower than that of surface seawater around the study site (0.16). This lower ratio in the Okinawa Trough particles collected using the 811 m-moored trap certainly reflected the mixture of biologically produced organic matter around the study site and other components that were mainly transported as lateral flux from the shelf edge and slope area of the East China Sea.     

Long-term changes in the fish community structure from the Tsushima warm current region of the Japan/East Sea with an emphasis on the impacts of fishing and climate regime shift over the last four decades

Japanese fisheries production in the Japan/East Sea between 1958 and 2003 increased to their peak (1.76 million tons) in the late 1980s and decreased abruptly with the collapse of Japanese sardine. Catch results for 58 fisheries and various environmental time-series data sets and community indices, including mean trophic level (MTL) and Simpson’s diversity index (DI), were used to investigate the impacts of fishing and climate changes on the structure of the fish community in the Tsushima warm current (TWC) region of the Japan/East Sea. The long-term trend in fisheries production was largely dependent on the Japanese sardine that, as a single species, contributed up to 60% of the total production in the Japanese waters of the Japan/East Sea during the late 1980s. Excluding Japanese sardine, production of the small pelagic species was higher during 1960s and 1990s but lower during 1970s and 1980s. This variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature, warmer before early 1960s and after 1990s but colder during 1970s and 1980s. The warm-water, large predatory fishes and cold water demersal species show opposite responses to the water temperature in the TWC region, indicating the significant impact of oceanic conditions on fisheries production of the Japan/East Sea. Declines in demersal fishes and invertebrates during 1970s and 1980s suggested some impact of fishing. MTL and DI show a similar variation pattern: higher during 1960s and 1990s but lower during 1970s and 1980s. In particular, the sharp decline during the 1980s resulted from the abundant sardine catches, suggesting that dominant species have a large effect on the structure of the fish community in the Japan/East Sea. Principal component analysis for 58 time-series data sets of fisheries catches suggested that the fish community varied on inter-annual to inter-decadal scales; the abrupt changes that occurred in the mid-1970s and late 1980s seemed to correspond closely with the climatic regime shifts in the North Pacific. These results strongly suggest that the structure of the fish community in the Japan/East Sea was largely affected by climatic and oceanic regime shifts rather than by fishing. There is no evidence showing “fishing down food webs” in the Japan/East Sea. However, in addition to the impacts of abrupt shifts that occurred in the late 1980s, the large predatory and demersal fishes seem to be facing stronger fishing pressure with the collapse of the Japanese sardine.     

海浪日最大波高序列的一种标度性质

应用重标度分析方法研究小麦岛海洋观测站１９６１－１９８０年二十年海浪日最大波高序列时发现，该序列并不是相互独立的，而是具有记忆性和持久性，详细的论证表明分式布朗运动模型是描述海浪日最大波高序列的一个较好的模型，同时，应用分式布朗运动模型我们找到了存在于海浪日最大波高序列中的一种标度性质－累积离差（ｔ）的统计自仿射性。     

辽东湾地区下第三系地震速度—岩性预测模型研究

地震速度－岩性预测模型由四个子模型组成：即（１）砂泥岩压实模型；（２）地震层速度转换模型；（３）速度校正模型；（４）砂岩指数转换模型。辽东湾地区的实际资料证明，上述四个子模型不但决定了岩性预测的具体方法，而且严格控制岩性预测的精度。     

黄渤海底层盐度预报方法的研究

根据二维流体动力学方程和深度平均盐度扩散方程在河口径流量以及蒸发和降水之差为已知情况下构成的闭合方程组,预报出深度平均盐度,然后利用底层盐度与深度平均盐度、水深和时间(月)之间的经验关系,给出底层盐度的二维预报。为了检验试报结果的可靠性,文中将黄渤海底层盐度的试报结果(1979年7月11日,时效为3d)与标准断面观测资料(7月4—14日观测,124.5°E以西,共104站)作一粗略比较。比较表明,试报结果与实测值的相关系数为0.96,均方误差为α=0.26,绝对误差小于0.2和0.3的站数分别占总站数的63.5％和77.0％,而总均绝差为0.19。由此可见,试报的效果是令人满意的。     

Effects of variable winds on biological productivity on continental shelves in coastal upwelling systems

The production and distribution of biological material in wind-driven coastal upwelling systems are of global importance, yet they remain poorly understood. Production is frequently presumed to be proportional to upwelling rate, yet high winds can lead to advective losses from continental shelves, where many species at higher trophic levels reside. An idealized mixed-layer conveyor (MLC) model of biological production from constant upwelling winds demonstrated previously that the amount of new production available to shelf species increased with upwelling at low winds, but declined at high winds [Botsford, L.W., Lawrence, C.A., Dever, E.P., Hastings, A., Largier, J., 2003. Wind strength and biological productivity in upwelling systems: an idealized study. Fisheries Oceanography 12, 245–259]. Here we analyze the response of this model to time-varying winds for parameter values and observed winds from the Wind Events and Shelf Transport (WEST) study region. We compare this response to the conventional view that the results of upwelling are proportional to upwelled volume. Most new production per volume upwelled available to shelf species occurs following rapid increases in shelf transit time due to decreases in wind (i.e. relaxations). However, on synoptic, event time-scales shelf production is positively correlated with upwelling rate. This is primarily due to the effect of synchronous periods of low values in these time series, paradoxically due to wind relaxations. On inter-annual time-scales, computing model production from wind forcing from 20 previous years shows that these synchronous periods of low values have little effect on correlations between upwelling and production. Comparison of model production from 20 years of wind data over a range of shelf widths shows that upwelling rate will predict biological production well only in locations where cross-shelf transit times are greater than the time required for phytoplankton or zooplankton production. For stronger mean winds (narrower shelves), annual production falls below the peak of constant wind prediction [Botsford et al., 2003. Wind strength and biological productivity in upwelling systems: an idealized study. Fisheries Oceanography 12, 245–259], then as winds increase further (shelves become narrower) production does not decline as steeply as the constant wind prediction.