地震红外长波辐射短期异常特征分析

利用NOAA卫星资料反演的地震长波辐射值OLR对黑龙江及其周边2003年以来8次中强地震进行了追踪研究.结果显示,震前2个月左右OLR场值存在明显的高值异常区,未来震中距离高值区中心点250km(优势距离为160km).该方法对黑龙江及其周边4级以上地震短期判定可能具有一定的指示价值,也为利用卫星遥感技术预测未来可能发震区域并及时做出短期预测预警提供了新途径.     

四川芦山7.0地震和汶川8.0地震震源区地壳岩石圈变形特征分析

地壳和岩石圈变形特征研究对于深入了解中强地震的深部孕震环境具有重要科学意义.本文联合P和S波远震接收函数偏移成像结果,对发生过芦山7.0地震和汶川8.0地震的龙门山断裂带及附近区域地壳和岩石圈结构进行分析.结果揭示出在青藏高原向四川盆地过渡的龙门山断裂带,Moho面和岩石圈底界面(LAB)呈现出强烈变形,特别是芦山地震和汶川地震震源区下方地壳出现了错断、下凹,岩石圈也呈现下凹变形特征.这种地壳及岩石圈变形所代表的高应力的积累可能是汶川和芦山地震发生的重要深部地球动力学背景.     

2001年四川省雅江-康定6.0级地震烈度考察及发震构造背景雏议

2001年2月23日四川省发生的6.0级地震,其宏观震中位于雅江县与康定县之间的高山峡谷地带．极震区烈度可达Ⅷ 度,Ⅷ 度区、Ⅶ 度区和Ⅵ 度区面积分别为180km2,1472 km2和3998 km2,等震线分布总体形态呈椭圆形,长轴近南北向．震区建筑物普遍受损,极震区山地灾害较为严重．初步分析认为,此次地震的发生与理塘断裂和玉农希断裂的长期活动有关,主干断裂活动造成的地壳应力调整和集中,最终在块体内部的次级断裂上释放而产生地震．     

全国自动地震速报系统综合评估

通过对2011年1月1日至12月31日的3套独立自动地震定位系统结果进行综合处理,得出中国自动地震综合目录,并与正式速报结果进行对比,得出全国自动地震速报系统综合评估结果,发现该目录对于国内绝大部分5级以上、国外7级以上地震实现整体覆盖,且没有误报发生,可以作为国家台网中心正式地震速报的重要参考,对于建立“自动报～正式报”的两级地震速报制度可提供技术支撑。     

菏泽5.9级地震前后水准测量与承压水变化关系的研究

利用深层承压水头观测结果,对东明——菏泽长水准测线8——9号测段的高差变化进行了回归计算和相关分析。认为菏泽市城区9号测点下沉的主要原因是受深层承压水头变化的影响。排除地下水影响因素后证实,1983年11月7日菏泽5.9级地震前后仅3mm左右的升降变化,表明9号测点对这次中强地震仅能反映微弱的形变信息量。     

Dextral‐Slip Thrust Faulting and Seismic Events of the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake,Longmenshan Mountains,Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract: Dextral-slip thrust movement of the Songpan-Garzê terrain over the Sichuan block caused the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008 and offset the Central Longmenshan Fault (CLF) along a distance of ~250 km. Displacement along the CLF changes from Yingxiu to Qingchuan. The total oblique slip of up to 7.6 m in Yingxiu near the epicenter of the earthquake, decreases northeastward to 5.3 m, 6.6 m, 4.4 m, 2.5 m and 1.1 m in Hongkou, Beichuan, Pingtong, Nanba and Qingchuan, respectively. This offset apparently occurred during a sequence of four reported seismic events, EQ1–EQ4, which were identified by seismic inversion of the source mechanism. These events occurred in rapid succession as the fault break propagated northeastward during the earthquake. Variations in the plunge of slickensides along the CLF appear to match these events. The Mw 7.5 EQ1 event occurred during the first 0–10 s along the Yingxiu-Hongkou section of the CLF and is characterized by 1.7 m vertical slip and vertical slickensides. The Mw 8.0 EQ2 event, which occurred during the next 10–42 s along the Yingxiu-Yanziyan section of the CLF, is marked by major dextral-slip with minor thrust and slickensides plunging 25°–35° southwestward. The Mw 7.5 EQ3 event occurred during the following 42–60 s and resulted in dextral-slip and slickensides plunging 10° southwestward in Beichuan and plunging 73° southwestward in Hongkou. The Mw 7.7 EQ4 event, which occurred during the final 60–95 s along the Beichuan-Qingchuan section of the CLF, is characterized by nearly equal values of dextral and vertical slips with slickensides plunging 45°–50° southwestward. These seismic events match and evidently controlled the concentrations of landslide dams caused by the Wenchuan earthquake in Longmenshan Mountains.     

A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealand earthquakes

The proposal that the moment release rate increases in a systematic way in a large region around a forthcoming large earthquake is tested using three recent, large New Zealand events. The three events, 1993–1995, magnitudes 6.7–7.0, occurred in varied tectonic settings. For all three events, a circular precursory region can be found such that the moment release rate of the included seismicity is modelled significantly better by the proposed accelerating model than by a linear moment release model, although in one case the result is dubious. The 'best' such regions have radii from 122 to 167 km, roughly in accord with previous observations world-wide, but are offset by 50–60 km from the associated main shock epicentre. A grid-search procedure is used to test whether these three earthquakes could have been forecast using the accelerating moment release model. For two of the earthquakes the result is positive in terms of location, but the main shock times are only loosely constrained.     

用跨断层形变资料分析鲜水河断裂西北段的运动特征

本文利用主成分分析、震间位错反演和小波技术分析了鲜水河断裂西北段的跨断层形变资料(1986—2013).结果表明:以左旋走滑为主的断层长期运动为跨断层资料的主要信息,且符合负指数函数的运动规律,随着断层深度的增加,滑动量逐渐减弱.从炉霍段、道孚段到乾宁段,断层闭锁程度逐渐增强.2001年昆仑山M8.1地震发生后,鲜水河断裂西北段地壳浅层(地表以下30 km)的左旋走滑明显减弱,到2013年的累积减弱量为3~13 mm.5·12汶川M8.0地震发生前,断层滑动出现周期4~5年的增强信号.4·20芦山M7.0地震发生前,断层滑动首先出现低频信号(4~5年周期)增强,随着地震发生临近,强信号频率逐渐升高,直到出现周期为1年的强信号.     

以菏泽地震为例探讨地震学综合预测方法

在前人提出的地震预测方法基础上提出一种地震学综合预测方法。 首先利用动态图像方法(地震条带与地震空区)大致确定潜在地震危险区; 然后利用中、 强地震产生的库仑应力确定孕震区; 最后利用地震矩快速释放模型和相关长度增长模型判断孕震区是否进入短临状态。 在地震三要素预测中, 发挥地震学典型预测方法的优势, 并且对相关性较小的预测方法的预测结论相互对比、 印证, 以便得出更可靠的预测结果。 文中还利用这种综合预测方法对1983年菏泽5.9级做了简略研究, 结果表明这种综合预测方法的预测结果和菏泽地震基本上是一致的。