Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.     

林草复合经营模式养分动态关系

林草复合经营模式在目前的退耕还林工程中起着重要的作用，研究林草复合模式的林与草之间的营养元素关系，通过对不同林草养分的研究得出林木、草、土壤之间的养分动态关系，对矿质养分相互关系的研究为合理搭配林草提供重要依据，为退化山地生态系统的恢复和重建提供重要的模式。模式Ⅰ在退耕还林初期，土壤养分供给氮素虽未亏缺，但从三者问的消长关系看出：氮磷素供应并不富足，特别是水解性氮。土壤交换性钙供应不足，引起杉木与黑麦草对钙质竞争。而土壤全钙含量很高，钙质向交换性钙转化的速度缓慢。模式Ⅱ与模式Ⅰ得到相似结果，所以在这两种模式中应加强人为管理，在退耕初期应适当增施氮磷钙肥，辅以土壤结构改良，加速土壤养分向植物可利用态转化。模式Ⅲ牛鞭草的生物量极高，磷、钙索相对缺乏。由于牛鞭草被不断的采割用于牲畜的饲料，对该模式中必须进行一定养分的输入，以保持杂交竹与牛鞭草这一林草生态系统的养分平衡。     

Site Effects Study in the Serravalle Village (NE Italy) by Means of Spectral Ratios Analyses Relatively to Multiple Reference Sites

The area of Serravalle, sited in the northern part of the town of Vittorio Veneto (TV), NE Italy, has been the target of a seismic microzonation campaign. 10 seismic stations have been deployed for a 7 months period to record in continuous mode. Three stations were installed on bedrock outcrops and seven on sedimentary sites with variable cover thickness. Spectral analyses have been performed on the collected data-set using the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT, e.g. Andrews, 1986). In particular, spectral ratios have been calculated for each station relatively to the average of the three reference, bedrock sites. The spectral ratios provide quantitative estimates of the seismic motion amplifications which occur in each of the monitored sites. Two sites show high values of amplification, 5 times larger than signal amplitude at the reference sites, in correspondence of well discernible peak frequencies of 5 Hz. Results for the other stations show smaller amounts of site amplification spreading over a broad range of frequencies. Sites where the highest amplifications were recorded all lie on the left bank of the Meschio River and in areas farther away from its outlet into the plain correlating with the presence of thick layers of Quaternary deposits.     

福建省山仔水库浮游植物特征与水体富营养状况分析

采用浮游植物指示法评价了福州省山仔水库2005年不同季节水体的富营养状况,结果表明:冬、春季库区水体处于中—富营养水平,夏季发生水华微囊藻(Microcystis flos-aquae)“水华”,水体处于富营养水平,秋季水体处于中营养水平.由于浮游植物的生长状况受到多因素的影响,有必要进一步结合其他评价方法对整个水体的富营养状态做出综合判断.     

Transparency: aid or obstacle to effective defence of vulnerable environments from reservoir construction? Dam decisions and democracy in North East England

Public participation in transparent decisionmaking has been proposed as a panacea for environmental protection. Bargaining theory suggests drawbacks to transparency such as hardening of attitudes and intransigence. Yet achievement of consensus on environmental values for integrated water resource management demands public involvement. Historical study of attempts to prevent reservoir construction in upland valleys designated for protection of nature suggests that 'closed-door' bargaining proved more effective for environmentalists than open, public debate. Records now open for analysis of disputes over Teesdale and Farndale, 1950–1970, allow comparisons to be made between behind-the-scenes deliberations and 'open-door' public discussion. The ambition of progressing from public participation to devolution of environmental decisionmaking and responsibility to the local scale demands more conceptualization of the process of decisionmaking on water resource development.     

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.     

The Earthquake Readiness Scale: The Development of a Valid and Reliable Unifactorial Measure

Preparedness is a key dependent variable in many studies examining people’s response to disasters such as earthquakes. A feature of many studies on this issue, however, is the lack of attention given to psychometric issues when constructing measures of preparedness. With regard to earthquake preparation, for example, many studies could be greatly improved by the use of a valid and reliable measure of preparedness. This research developed such a measure that assessed both low-level preparedness, such as having an emergency kit, and high-level preparedness, such as altering home structures to mitigate damage. Studies of Wellington (New Zealand) residents using two samples totalling n=652 showed that 23 items measuring these different aspects of earthquake preparation could be combined into a reliable, valid, unifactorial scale. This brief scale should have utility in multivariate studies of earthquake preparation, either as a dependent variable, where preparation is the outcome variable of primary interest, or as one of several independent variables, where preparation and other measures predict another outcome variable.