A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

城市防震减灾信息管理系统之研究

城市防震减灾信息系统是“数字福建”的一个组成内容。该文结合福建省城市防震减灾信息系统的建设工作 ,探讨了地理信息系统与防震减灾数值模型的集成方法 ,论述了城市防震减灾信息系统的结构、内容、功能和组织方式 ,分析了地震风险评估、建筑物易损性评价、生命与财产损失估算、救援与救灾管理调度等模型的集成方法 ,设计了城市防震减灾信息系统。     

中蒙地块的水平运动及应变特征

GPS观测结果显示中蒙块体的位移速率较小,块体各部分的位移方向存在差别,说明块体有差异活动但不显著。连续应变场的应变率参量值在10-8/a以下;主压应力轴方向为NE74.6°,与该区内的浅源强震震源机制解的P轴方向基本一致。由应变产生的贝加尔湖裂谷的裂开速率为4.71mm/a,最大主应变率为34.34×10-9/a,张应变主轴方向NW310.49°,垂直于裂谷走向;嫩江断裂带和萝北-营口断裂带为走滑兼挤压或拉张活动断裂,位移速率和应变率都较小,活动性不显著。2003年8月16日巴林左旗5.9级地震和2004年3月24日东乌珠沁旗6.4级地震均发生在由1999~2003年GPS资料得出的多种应变速率参量的相对高值带和应变率高梯度带上。     

Comparative Study of Changes in Stress-drop of the Jinggu MS6.6 and Ludian MS6.5 Earthquake Sequences

The earthquake stress-drop values of two sequences were accurately calculated after taking away the effects due to regional earthquake anelastic attenuation and station site response, using waveform data and seismic phase data of sequences of the Jinggu M_S6.6, and Ludian M_S6.5 earthquakes in Yunnan. These results show that the stress drop with magnitude increases within the scope of this study of magnitude. After eliminating the influence of the magnitude, the average value of stress-drop in the Jinggu sequence is higher than that of the Ludian sequence at the same magnitude range. This may be related to the stress state in different regions. In terms of the changes of time and space of stress-drop, before M_S5.8 strong aftershock, the stress-drop is "slowing down-turning up-keeping a high value" after the mainshock, meanwhile, almost all of the abnormally high stress drop value is distributed around the M_S5.8 strong aftershock, showing that the stress environment in the region was increasing after the mainshock. And after the M_S5.9 strong aftershock, stress-drop rapidly declines to a relatively stable state, meanwhile, the high value of stress-drop is distributed around the strong aftershock, showing that the regional tectonic stress gets more fully release, its stress environment begins to rapidly decrease. For the Ludian sequence without a strong aftershock occurring, the average value of stress drop is lower than that of the Jinggu earthquake sequence at the same magnitude range, while at the same time, the stress-drop of the aftershock sequence almost hasn''t changed much. In the time after the mainshock, combined with the release characteristics of the main energy, the stress in the region is excessively released, the subsequent stress in the region gradually returns to normal. This may be the reason why the activity of Ludian aftershocks significantly was weaker and subsequently there were no strong aftershocks occurred.     

雷山—锦屏一带清水江组软沉积构造的变形特征——远古的地震记录

通过面上地质调查,在黔东南雷山—锦屏一带的新元古代清水江组含火山碎屑之砂泥质岩层中,发现了大量软沉积物变形构造,主要有滑塌、滑移及阶梯状微断层。根据前人对形成该软沉积物变形的模拟试验成果,推断该类软沉积变形的机制与震动液化有关,其动力来源于古地震。在清水江组地层分布区,沉积物中含大量凝灰质,显示出古地震与古火山作用相伴频发之特点,这是新元古代裂谷盆地在此阶段构造演化的响应。     

2014年8月云南鲁甸MS 6.5地震典型地表破裂特征

北京时间2014年8月3日16时30分,云南省鲁甸县发生了M_S 6.5地震,本次地震的发震构造为包谷垴-小河断裂。野外调查发现,王家坡不稳定斜坡上的地表破裂在整个破裂带中比较具有代表性,其地表破裂带整体走向N45°W-N50°W,并且由剪切破裂、张剪切破裂、压剪切破裂、张性破裂以及鼓包等典型地表破裂组成。其中左、右地表破裂边界与发震断层的出露位置一致,由断层错动造成;而部分地表破裂与断层的位置不重合,其成因分为2种,一种是发震断层导致的一些次级地表破裂,另一种是地震引发的滑坡后缘破裂。地表破裂类型和基本组合特征显示出王家坡潜在不稳定斜坡上的地表破裂带具有左旋走滑的性质。     

基于新生代活动构造背景的地震重点危险区域综合研究——以安徽为例

基于地震的发生与断裂的活动性密切相关,为了科学合理并尽可能准确地判定未来地震重点危险区域,以安徽为例,利用由深浅部对比、宏微观构造解析所给出的新生代构造活动性最新研究成果,结合地震活动性资料研究结果,对一些重点部位的地震危险性进行了综合研究。结果表明,根据长时间尺度的地质构造最新研究揭示的活动性较强区域,与根据近代地震活动性资料研究反映的危险性较大区域,呈现较好的一致性特征,从而为未来地震重点危险区域的判定提供了新的较为可靠的依据和方法。     

Seismic performance of a 3D full‐scale high‐ductile steel–concrete composite moment‐resisting frame—Part II: Test results and analytical validation

This paper presents the results of a multi‐level pseudo‐dynamic seismic test program that was performed to assess the performance of a full‐scale three‐bay, two‐storey steel–concrete composite moment‐resisting frame built with partially encased composite columns and partial‐strength beam‐to‐column joints. The system was designed to develop a ductile response in the joint components of beam‐to‐column joints including flexural yielding of beam end plates and shear yielding of the column web panel zone. The ground motion producing the damageability limit state interstorey drift caused minor damage while the ultimate limit state ground motion level entailed column web panel yielding, connection yielding and plastic hinging at the column base connections. The earthquake level chosen to approach the collapse limit state induced more damage and was accompanied by further column web panel yielding, connection yielding and inelastic phenomena at column base connections without local buckling. During the final quasi‐static cyclic test with stepwise increasing displacement–amplitudes up to an interstorey drift angle of 4.6%, the behaviour was ductile although cracking of beam‐to‐end‐plate welds was observed. Correlations with numerical simulations taking into account the inelastic cyclic response of beam‐to‐column and column base joints are also presented in the paper together. Inelastic static pushover and time history analysis procedures are used to estimate the structural behaviour and overstrength factors of the structural system under study. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市群地震灾害特点与防震减灾对策

城市群是我国经济迅速发展的产物。我国东部地区已经涌现了大量的城市群。城市群地震灾害比单个城市的地震灾害更为复杂、严重。地震对社会经济的影响更大。本文首次对城市群的地震灾害特点、防震减灾对策进行了系统的讨论，并着重指出了城市群防震减灾研究的重点领域。     

测震台卫星设备维护与问题的解决

在日常工作当中,由于卫星地面传输设备故障造成的数据传输中断以及解决办法,同时就卫星信号地面传输设备的维护办法做出了详细总结,从而实现卫星测震台低故障率,为地震速报工作提供有力保障。