Sustaining China’s large rivers: River development policy,impacts, institutional issues and strategies for future improvement

The sustainable management of China’s rivers is very important to the well-being of both the environment and its people. Yet the country’s rivers are now facing imminent threats from river overexploitation. The deteriorating condition serves as a stark reminder that relevant policies must be revised to ensure their wiser stewardship. In this short critical review, we first briefly stated river development history and various impacts arising from river overexploitation. We then elaborated the issues in river management, which connived numerous behaviors neglecting river degradation happened at all institutional levels. Based on the weakness, we proposed some policy recommendations to sustain China’s rivers and balance river development and conservation. The article concludes by proposing the development of a national river protection law to reinforce integrated river management, improve the implementation of environment impact assessments, and fulfill long-term goals for river conservation and sustainable development.     

Assessment of a spatial multi-criteria evaluation to site selection underground dams in the Alborz Province,Iran

Most part of Iran is arid and semi-arid; thus in most parts of the region, groundwater is the only source of water. This research presents a method based on a spatial multi-criterion evaluation (SMCE) for designing possible sites of underground dams and ranks them according to their suitability. The method was tested for siting underground dams in the Alborz Province, Iran. At first, screening algorithm was applied using exclusionary criteria, and thirty-one potential areas were recognized in the study area. In the next step, a suitable gorge or valley was recognized using the combination of basic maps and extensive field surveys (long axis of tank level) in each potential area. Subsequently, the analytical hierarchy process was used as a powerful tool for decision-making in the SMCE in order to evaluate different criteria for underground dam sites. SMCE techniques were then applied to combine the criteria, and obtain a suitability map in the study area. These sites were then compared and ranked according to their main criteria such as water, storage, axis and socio-economics. All these criteria were assessed through geographical information system modelling. This method shows passable results and could be used for site selection of underground dams in other regions of Iran.     

基于EEMD的大坝变形多步预测方法研究

针对大坝变形具有非线性和非平稳性的特点,提出一种基于集合经验模态分解(EEMD)的大坝变形多步预测新算法。首先从时频分析出发,利用集合经验模态分解将变形时间序列分解成具有不同频率特征的分量;然后采用游程判定法对波动程度相似的分量重构为高、中和低频3个分量;最后对3个分量分别建立相应的多步预测模型,叠加各预测值即为最终预测结果。经算例验证,并与AR模型、BP神经网络和支持向量机的多步预测进行对比分析,同时建立不同预测步长进一步验证。结果表明,该算法预测精度较高,在大坝变形波动剧烈的时段也能保证较好的预测效果,可以应用于大坝变形预测。     

Influence of regional background stress fields on the spontaneous rupture of the major faults around Xiluodu dam,China

Simulations of the spontaneous rupture of potential earthquakes in the vicinity of reservoir dams can provide accurate parameters for seismic resilience assessment, which is essential for improving the seismic performance of reservoir dams. In simulations of potential spontaneous ruptures, fault geometry, regional stress fields, constitutive parameters of the fault friction law, and many other factors control the slip rate, morphology, and dislocation of the rupture, thereby affecting the simulated ground motion parameters. The focus of this study was to elucidate the effects of the background stress field on the nucleation and propagation of spontaneous ruptures based on the factors influencing potential M > 7 earthquake events on the Leibo Middle Fault (LBMF) and the Mabian-Yanjing Fault (MB-YJF) in the Xiluodu dam (XLD) region. Our simulation results show that the magnitude of the regional background stress field plays a decisive role in whether a destructive earthquake exceeding the critical magnitude will occur. We found that the direction and magnitude of the regional stress significantly affect the range of rupture propagation on the fault plane, and fault geometry affects the spatial distribution of the rupture range. Under the same regional stress field magnitude and orientation, a more destructive, high-magnitude earthquake is more likely to occur on the LBMF than on the MB-YJF.     

基于TLS的多变量灰色模型在大坝变形预报中的应用

传统多变量灰色模型MGM(1,n)的背景值误差会使得求解的灰色参数精度降低。总体最小二乘是一种可以同时顾及到观测误差与模型系数矩阵误差的数学方法。基于此,引入TLS对传统MGM(1,n)模型的灰色参数进行修正。通过对某大坝变形数据试算,验证表明,该方法能够有效地提高变形预报精度。     

神经网络融合模型在大坝安全监控中的应用

为了提高大坝安全监控模型的预测精度并检验模型的泛化能力,研究大坝安全监控的统计模型、BP神经网络模型及遗传神经网络模型,并提出基于这两种神经网络的融合模型,结合某拱坝长期的变形观测数据,对上述几种模型进行试算。分析结果表明,所建立的融合模型与其他模型相比具有较高的预测精度,且泛化能力较强,具有良好的适用性。     

IBIS-L系统及其在大坝变形监测中的应用

主要介绍了地基合成孔径雷达,阐述了干涉测量成像系统IBIS-L的结构和基本原理,将IBIS-L系统应用于国内外几个大坝的变形计算与分析,获得了较为准确的大坝位移量,认为IBIS-L系统可以应用于大坝的变形监测,同时认为大坝变形监测时受大气的影响较大,如何有效地进行大气影响改正和提高IBIS-L技术的变形监测精度是值得深入研究的课题。     

中国大坝安全管理与风险管理的战略思考

中国大坝安全管理水平不断提高的同时,更为科学与全面的风险管理理念也在不断发展。从法律法规、研究进展两个角度,对中国大坝安全管理与风险管理进行对比分析,指出当前采用的安全管理方法存在事故概率计算难度较大、对事故后果重视不足、评价准则不够全面及管理措施较为单一等问题。为促进管理方式和理念的转变,提高中国大坝的管理水平,提出在今后的研究与实际操作中,应重视事故概率与后果的定量分析,及时构建风险标准并综合运用风险控制方法。     

改进蝙蝠算法优化极限学习机的大坝变形预测模型分析

针对大坝变形监测数据中存在的非线性关系强和传统大坝预测模型精度不高等问题,本文利用改进蝙蝠算法选取最优的参数作为极限学习机的连接权值和阈值,并提出了一种基于改进蝙蝠算法（IBA）优化极限学习机（ELM）的大坝变形预测模型（IBA-ELM）。将IBA-ELM模型应用于工程实例,通过对某地水库大坝监测数据预测分析,验证IBA-ELM模型、BA-ELM和GA-ELM模型预测结果并进行精度评价,3种模型的预测值与实测值平均绝对误差分别为1.178 3、0.459 8、0.335 6 mm,IBA-ELM模型的预测精度高于另外2种模型,表明IBA-ELM模型能有效提高大坝变形预测能力。     

The seismic signatures of the surge wave from the 2009 Xiaolin landslide‐dam breach in Taiwan

The catastrophic Xiaolin landslide occurred on 9 August 2009, after Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan. This landslide formed a dam that subsequently breached, burying and flooding the village of Xiaolin. Seismic signals were induced by the landslide and dam breaching and recorded at the Jiaxian broadband seismic station in Taiwan. The time‐frequency spectra for the data from this station were analysed to extract the seismic characteristics of the landslide and to deduce the timing of processes associated with the landslide dam‐break flooding. The duration of the river blockage, the time of the dam breach, the duration of the surge wave and the mean speed of the surge wave were estimated, and the hydrological implications of the flood behaviour were interpreted. The spectral characteristics of the different stream discharges were also studied. Stream water level/discharge is closely related to the frequency of the seismic signals. The broadband stations are particularly useful for flood monitoring due to their ability to continuously record measurements and their high sensitivity. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.