基于逻辑回归原理的堰塞坝稳定性快速评估模型应用研究

堰塞坝稳定性分析是当前的研究热点,准确、快速地对堰塞坝的稳定性进行评估,对应急抢险具有十分重要的意义。基于文献汇编,梳理并对比了国内外典型的堰塞坝稳定性快速评估模型;在此基础上,基于所建立的滑坡堵江数据库,充分考虑了堰塞坝长度对其稳定性的影响,采用逻辑回归方法,建立了基于坝长、坝宽和堰塞湖库容量三参数的堰塞坝稳定性快速评估模型;以白格滑坡堵江案例为背景,采用所提出的三参数堰塞坝稳定性快速评估模型,开展案例应用研究。研究结果表明：所提出的快速评估模型综合正确率为86.7%,误报率为5.1%,工程上偏安全;以白格滑坡堰塞坝为研究对象,开展了案例应用分析,预测的白格堰塞坝稳定性与实际情况一致,反算得到的白格堰塞湖库容量1.4×10⁸ m³,小于实际堰塞湖库容量,这能为堰塞湖灾害的应急抢险提供响应时间。研究结果能为堰塞坝的危险性评价和堰塞湖灾害的应急处置提供有益参考。     

四川汉源康家坡滑坡形成机理与滑坡—堰塞坝—泥石流灾害链分析

2018年8月6日中午12时,汉源县富泉镇西沟发生大规模滑坡,约1.50×10⁶ m³松散碎块石土在前期持续降雨作用下沿西沟右岸高速滑出、解体,并在主沟道内形成堰塞坝,体积约4.00×10⁵ m³。滑坡造成1人失踪,近6.70×10³ m²耕地被毁,紧急转移50余人。通过现场实地调查,结合无人机航飞、三维建模、地质、地震、水文、气象等资料,对康家坡滑坡基本特征进行了调查研究,调查表明,有利的地形条件、松散的覆盖层、充沛的前期降雨入渗及溪水对坡脚的冲刷是形成滑坡的主要原因。西沟原本为一条高频泥石流沟,本文在此基础上分析了堰塞坝溃坝的可能性及灾害链成灾模式。     

UH模型对粗颗粒土适用性验证及土石坝工程应用

对3种粗颗粒土进行了常规三轴CD试验、K₀压缩试验和等应力比路径试验,根据三轴试验数据标定UH(unified hardening,统一硬化)模型的参数,然后模拟另外两种路径下的应力-应变关系,并与邓肯E-B模型进行比较。结果表明:UH模型能合理地描述不同应力路径下粗颗粒土的力学特性,而邓肯E-B模型的预测结果则较差,验证了UH模型对粗颗粒土的适用性。最后利用UH模型对某心墙堆石坝进行了应力变形三维有限元分析,并将计算结果与邓肯E-B模型及现场监测值进行比较。对比显示:在坝体变形和应力的定性分布规律上,UH模型的计算结果与邓肯E-B模型基本一致;而在定量上,UH模型得到的坝体变形总体上更接近现场监测值,验证了UH模型在土石坝工程中的适用性和合理性。     

大坝变形失稳的尖点突变模型

基于大坝变形失稳的简化力学模型,考虑裂隙的非线性应变软化和渗水软化,根据突变理论推导了大坝变形失稳的尖点突变模型,并利用该模型对大坝变形失稳的机理和力学条件进行了分析,从整体上深化了对大坝变形失稳机制的认识。     

汶川地震中绵阳市梓潼县水库土坝震害调查与分析

5·12汶川特大地震对绵阳市梓潼县170座水库造成了不同程度的破坏和严重的经济损失.依据绵阳市梓潼县水库地震灾害的现场科学考察资料,对绵阳市梓潼县48座高危以上险情水库土坝的震损情况做了初步总结和分析.典型震害现象包括裂缝、渗漏以及泄水建筑物和附属设施的损毁等;以梓潼县3座典型震损水库土坝为例,总结了震损水库的特点和经验教训,给出了一些建设性结论.     

Experimental Study on Mechanism and Shape Characteristics of Suspended Flexible Dam

Hydraulic structures such as groin, longitudinal dike and seawall are common in water conservancy and water transportation engineering projects at home and abroad, which have long been dominated by solid mass structural form. With brush and stone as building materials, this kind of structure has an obvious engineering effect. However, it not only requires huge capital investments, but also has negative impacts on the ecological environment. The suspended flexible dam is an innovative engineering measure, and few theoretical and experimental researches of this type dam can be found at present. This paper studies the mechanism and shape characteristics of this dam and obtains the dynamic equilibrium equation of flexible dam, the float buoyancy expression, and the condition for transformation among three forms of the underwater shape of the dam. The results are valuable in engineering application and can be used as the reference for the future work due to the distinctive design philosophy, the small negative effects on environment and the consistency for sustainable development.     

Global-scale impact analysis of mine tailings dam failures: 1915–2020

Tailings are the waste materials generated from mining activities and are typically stored in large man-made earthen dams in the form of slurry. Failures of such tailings dams can have deleterious effects on the environment and even impact areas that are miles away from the failed dam. In this study, we updated the existing tailings dam failure database developed by the International Commission on Large Dams and World Information Service on Energy and analyzed the impacts of dam failure over the past hundred years from a global perspective. In addition, we prepared a tailings dam spatial database. The impact of mine tailings dam failure on aquatic environments was also investigated using a proxy environmental indicator—the gray water footprint. The resulting information from the historical overview of dam failures, was used to map the risk associated with existing tailings dams as well as the magnitude of tailings dam failures. Furthermore, we integrated mining commodity production data and the tailings dam failure data. This revealed that the number of failures is rising once again, and the trajectory of dam failures has shifted from developed to developing countries. Only a few dam failure incidents have had significant impacts. Although safer technologies are available to manage mine waste, most extractive industries are yet to adopt such technologies into their standard practices. Moreover, the reluctance of mining companies for the public disclosure of information related to tailings dams and dam failures hinders efforts to establish a complete tailings dam database. We have provided up-to-date tailings dam information, which may be useful for extractive industries.     

A framework to assess the cumulative impacts of dams on hydrological regime: A case study of the Yangtze River

Comparisons of flow time series between preimpact and postimpact periods have been widely used to determine hydrological alterations caused by reservoir operation. However, preimpact and postimpact periods might also be characterized by different climatological properties, a problem that has not been well addressed. In this study, we propose a framework to assess the cumulative impact of dams on hydrological regime over time. The impacts of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on the flow regime of the Yangtze River were investigated using this framework. We reconstructed the unregulated flow series to compare with the regulated flow series during the same period (2010 to 2015). Eco‐surplus and eco‐deficit and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) parameters were used to examine hydrological regime change. Among 32 IHA parameters, Wilcoxon signed‐rank test and principal component analysis identified the October median flow, 1‐ and 3‐day maximum flows, 1‐day minimum flow, and rise rate as representative indicators of hydrological alterations. Eco‐surplus and eco‐deficit showed that the reservoir also changed the seasonal regime of the flows by reducing autumn flow and increasing winter flow. Changes in annual extreme flows and October flows lead to negative ecological implications downstream of the TGD. Ecological considerations should be taken into account during operation of the TGD in order to mitigate the negative effects on the fluvial ecosystem in the middle reach of Yangtze River. The framework proposed here could be a robust method to assess the cumulative impacts of reservoir operation over time.     

舒家山尾矿库二期扩建坝安全运行监测分析

鉴于目前对尾矿库二期加坝监测没有一个统一的规律可寻,其根本原因在于尾矿库明显的个案性,另一点是缺乏已建类似坝的相关资料,因而给监测分析带来很大困难。本文结合舒家山尾矿库二期扩建坝已运行二年,通过对坝体设计和监测资料的整理分析,对坝体的安全运行状态及变化规律做出判断,为今后尾矿库安全生产提供一个科学参考。     

小湾水电站低高程坝基开挖卸荷松弛机理试验研究

小湾电站低高程坝基开挖过程中,表层岩体卸荷松弛强烈,主要形式有沿已有裂隙地错动、张开和扩展,及因新生破裂而松弛。后者主要包括:葱皮现象、板裂现象和岩爆现象。试验测试表明,开挖面附近微新岩石为坚硬极坚硬岩石,但其初始损伤明显,其损伤发展启动应力在5.2~12.4MPa之间,抗拉强度在3~6MPa之间,这是坝基表层岩体卸荷松弛强烈的物质基础;坝基面爆破开挖的应力集中和爆炸作用影响是坝基岩体卸荷松弛强烈的岩石力学环境条件。